واکاوی همدیدی بارش‌های تندری مخرب مشهد
محورهای موضوعی : مدیریت محیط زیستفرامرز خوش اخلاق 1 , محمدحسن ماهوتچی 2
1 - دانشیار آب و هواشناسی دانشکده جغرافیا دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.
2 - دکتری آب و هواشناسی سینوپتیک، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران * (مسئول مکاتبات).
کلید واژه: بارش تندری, واکاوی همدیدی, تحلیل مؤلفه‌ی مبنا, مشهد.,
چکیده مقاله :
زمینه و هدف: توفان های تندری جزو پدیده های مخرب آب و هوایی محسوب می شوند که شناخت سازوکار، تکوین و توسعه ی توفان های یادشده می تواند کمک ویژه ای را در جهت مقابله و کاهش خسارات ایفا کند. روش بررسی: در پژوهش حاضر به بررسی توفان های تندری با بارش بیش از 10 میلی متر ایستگاه سینوپتیک مشهد در یک دوره آماری 61 ساله (2010 -1951) پرداخته شده است. بدین ترتیب ابتدا کدهای مربوط به رخداد پدیده توفان تندری و سپس بارش های بیش تر از 10 میلی متر مربوط به این پدیده استخراج و در ادامه داده های روزانه ی میانگین فشار تراز دریا از سری داده های بازکاوی شده ی NCEP/NCAR در 12 روز مورد نظر برداشت شد. در نهایت با روش تحلیل مؤلفه ی مبنا (PCA) و تحلیل خوشه ای، الگوهای گردشی تراز دریا که در ایجاد بارش های تندری نقش ایفا می کردند، طبقه بندی گردیدند. یافته ها: با بررسی های صورت گرفته مشخص گردید که بارش های تندری مشهد از دو الگوی کلی پیروی کرده است. الگوی اول، در فشار تراز دریا، هسته ای از سامانه ی کم فشاری بر فراز کشور ایران شکل گرفته که با حرکت چرخندی رطوبت موردنیاز بارش تندری را از منابع رطوبتی جنوب کشور تأمین و در ترازهای فوقانی(850 و 500 هکتوپاسکالی) نیز قرارگیری جلوی ناوه بادهای غربی بر فراز منطقه مورد پژوهش موجب رخداد بارش تندری گردیده است. الگوی دوم، سامانه ی سودانی در جهت جنوب غربی شمال شرقی گسترش یافته و با عبور از فراز دریای عمان و خلیج فارس موجب فرارفت رطوبت به سمت منطقه مورد مطالعه شده و در تراز 850 و به ویژه 500 میلی باری قرارگیری جلوی ناوه بادهای غربی بر فراز منطقه مورد مطالعه عامل دینامیکی صعود را فراهم و تشدید و در پی آن به بارش تندری منجر گردیده است. بحث و نتیجه گیری: رخداد توفان های تندری و به ویژه بارش های تندری شدید و مخرب به وجود هوای مرطوب در مجاورت سطح زمین (مثلاً نم ویژه 10 گرم بر کیلوگرم و بیش تر)، و وجود ناپایداری در لایه های میانی وردسپهر بستگی دارد، مطالعه و مقایسه‌های انجام گرفته در رابطه با الگوهای متفاوت نشان داد که عوامل یادشده در الگوهای موجود نقش اصلی را ایفا می کنند. بررسی نقشه های وزش رطوبتی و نم ویژه ی الگوهای متفاوت در ترازهای مختلف جوی نشان می دهد که منابع رطوبتی بارش های تندری صورت گرفته در منطقه پژوهش دریای عرب، دریای سرخ، خلیج فارس و دریای عمان است.
Introduction: Thunderstorms are one of the most destructive weather phenomena, and knowing the mechanism, development, and development of such storms can be of particular help in counteracting and mitigating the damage. Methodology: In the present study, thunderstorms with rainfall of more than 10 mm of Mashhad synoptic station in a 61-year statistical period (2010-1901) have been investigated. Thus, first the codes related to the occurrence of the thunderstorm phenomenon and then the precipitation of more than 10 mm related to the mentioned phenomenon were extracted and then the daily data of the average sea level pressure from the series of retrieved data series. NCEP / NCAR were harvested within 12 days. Finally, with the method of basic component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis, sea level rotation patterns that played a role in the formation of thunderstorms were classified. Results and Discussion: The study showed that thunderstorms of the Mashhad region, has been created by two general patterns. The first pattern, in the SLP, formed the cell of the monsoon system over the country advocated hot and humid air needed for thunderstorm by motion of cyclonic and at the upper levels (850 and 500 hpa) the trough of westerly winds is located over the studied area that led to the thunderstorms occurrence. In The second pattern, the Sudan system expanded from southwest toward northeast and then passed over the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman, that led the humid advection into the study area and at the upper levels (850 and 500 hpa) trough of westerly winds is located over the studied area that provided dynamic rise and consequently led to thunderstorms. In both precipitation pattern, main source of moisture was the South Seas and the major factor of uplifting was the western trough.
1. Kunz, M., Sander, J. and Kottmeier, Ch. 2009. "Recent trends of thunderstorm and hailstorm frequency and their relation to atmospheric characteristics in southwest Germany". international journal of climatology int. j. climatol. 29. pp. 2283–2297.
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5. M. V. Sioutas., H. A. Flocas., 2003, Hailstorms in Northern Greece: synoptic patterns and thermodynamic environment, Theor. Appl. Climatol. No. 75, PP. 189–202.
6. Siedlecki, M., 2009. Selected Instability Indices in Europe, Journal of Theoretical Applied Climatology, Vol. 96, pp. 85–94.
7. U. Dayan., B. Zi., A. Margalit., E. Morin., D. Sharon., 2001. A severe autumn storm over the middle-east: synoptic and mesoscale convection analysis, Theor. Appl. Climatol, No. 69, PP. 103-122.
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11. Xin Yang., Zhanyu Yao., Zhanqing Li., Tianyi Fan., 2013. Heavy air pollution suppresses summer thunderstorms in central China, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Vol. 95–96 , PP. 28–40.
12. Ghavidel Rahimi, Yousef; Baghbanian, Parastoo; and Manouchehr Farajzadeh Asl 2015. Changes in Temporal trend of Thunderstorms in Iran. Journal of Spatial Planning, Volume 19, Issue 2, Summer, Pages 209-185, (In Persian).
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16. Boroumand Salahi 2010. Statistical and Synoptic Analysis of Characteristics of Thunderstorms in Ardabil Provinc. Physical Geography Reasearch Qurterly. Volume 42, Issue 72, 129-141, (In Persian).
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18. Khaledi, Shahriar, Faramarz, KhoshAkhlagh and Mehdi, Khazaei 2011. Synoptic analysis of the flood maker thundertorms in Kermanshah province, Journal of Geographical landscape, No. 13, 41-21, (In Persian).
19. Mahdi Modiri; Mahdi Khazaei and Mohammad Hasan Mahoutchi 2013. Synoptic- Thermodynamic Analysis of Shiraz Thunerstorms. Quarterly Journal of Geographic Information "Sepehr" Volume 22, Issue 85, Pages 4227.
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22. E. García-Ortega., A. Merino., L. López., J.L. Sánchez., 2012. Role of mesoscale factors at the onset of deep convection on hailstorm days and their relation to the synoptic patterns, Atmospheric Research, Vol. 114–115, No. 91–106.
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24. E. García-Ortega., L. López., J.L. Sánchez., 2011, Atmospheric patterns associated with hailstorm days in the Ebro Valley, Spain, Atmospheric Research, Vol. 100, PP. 401–427.
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27. Changnon, A.S., 2001. Thunderstorm Rainfall in the Conterminous United States, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 82, No. 9, PP. 1925- 1940.
28. Technical and operational deputy of the General Directorate of the Network 2008. Codes descriptions and land survey methods (SINOP), National Meteorological Organization, (In Persian).
29. Haghighat Kashani, Khosrou 1991. Frequency of thunderstorms in Iran, master's thesis, supervisor Ardakani, Hossein and Parviz Irannejad, Institute of Geophysics, University of Tehran, (In Persian).
30. Ezatyan, Victoria 2003. The role of physical processes in the intensify of atmospheric instability, Iran Geophysical Conference, (In Persian).
31. Manuchehr Farajzadeh Taher Mostafapoor 2012. Temporal and Spatial Analysis of Hail in Iran. Volume 10, Issue 28, Winte, 55-66, (In Persian).
32. Alijani, Bahlul 2009. Synoptic Climatology, Samt Press. Tehran, Iran, (In Persian).
Richard G.V., V. 2007. Applied Multivariate Statistical Analysis,
_||_1. Kunz, M., Sander, J. and Kottmeier, Ch. 2009. "Recent trends of thunderstorm and hailstorm frequency and their relation to atmospheric characteristics in southwest Germany". international journal of climatology int. j. climatol. 29. pp. 2283–2297.
2. Mohammadi, Hossein 2008. Atmospheric hazards, Tehran: Tehran University Press (In Persian)
3. Adelekan, I.O. 1998. "spatio – temporal variations in thunderstorm rainfall". international journal of climatology int. j.climatol. 18. pp. 1273–1284.
4. Czernecki, B., Taszarek, M., Kolendowicz, L. and Szyga-Pluta, K. 2015. "Atmospheric conditions of thunderstorms in the European part of the Arctic derived from sounding and reanalysis data". Atmospheric Research. 154. pp. 60–72.
5. M. V. Sioutas., H. A. Flocas., 2003, Hailstorms in Northern Greece: synoptic patterns and thermodynamic environment, Theor. Appl. Climatol. No. 75, PP. 189–202.
6. Siedlecki, M., 2009. Selected Instability Indices in Europe, Journal of Theoretical Applied Climatology, Vol. 96, pp. 85–94.
7. U. Dayan., B. Zi., A. Margalit., E. Morin., D. Sharon., 2001. A severe autumn storm over the middle-east: synoptic and mesoscale convection analysis, Theor. Appl. Climatol, No. 69, PP. 103-122.
8. Etkin, D., Brun, S.E., 1999. Canadas Hail climatology, International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 19, Issue 12, PP. 1357–1373.
9. H.E. Brooks., Severe thunderstorms and climate change, 2013. Atmospheric Research, Vol. 123, PP. 129–138.
10. Kunz, M., Sander, J. and Kottmeier, Ch. 2009. "Recent trends of thunderstorm and hailstorm frequency and their relation to atmospheric characteristics in southwest Germany". international journal of climatology int. j. climatol. 29. pp. 2283–2297.
11. Xin Yang., Zhanyu Yao., Zhanqing Li., Tianyi Fan., 2013. Heavy air pollution suppresses summer thunderstorms in central China, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Vol. 95–96 , PP. 28–40.
12. Ghavidel Rahimi, Yousef; Baghbanian, Parastoo; and Manouchehr Farajzadeh Asl 2015. Changes in Temporal trend of Thunderstorms in Iran. Journal of Spatial Planning, Volume 19, Issue 2, Summer, Pages 209-185, (In Persian).
13. Yosef Ghavidel Rahimi, Parasto Baghebanan, Manuchehr Farajzadeh 2014. The Spatial Analysis of Hazard of Spring Thunderstorms in Iran. Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental Hazarts. 1(3): 59-70, (In Persian).
14. Jalali, Oraj 2006. The temporal and spatial analysis of Thunderstorms in the Northwest, PhD dissertation with guidance of Ali Akbar Rasouli, Physical geography Department, Tabriz University, (In Persian).
15. Hejazizadeh, Zahra 2000. Synoptic study of rainfall and storm with thunderstorms in the west of the country. Journal of Faculty of Literature and Humanities (Kharazmi University) No. 28 and 29, pp. 26-5, (In Persian).
16. Boroumand Salahi 2010. Statistical and Synoptic Analysis of Characteristics of Thunderstorms in Ardabil Provinc. Physical Geography Reasearch Qurterly. Volume 42, Issue 72, 129-141, (In Persian).
17. A. Rasouli, J. Bodaghjamali, and Oraj, Jalali 2006. Temporam Distribution of Thunderstorms in the Northwest of Iran, Research Journal of Isfahan University, Vol. 22, No. 1, 155-170, (In Persian).
18. Khaledi, Shahriar, Faramarz, KhoshAkhlagh and Mehdi, Khazaei 2011. Synoptic analysis of the flood maker thundertorms in Kermanshah province, Journal of Geographical landscape, No. 13, 41-21, (In Persian).
19. Mahdi Modiri; Mahdi Khazaei and Mohammad Hasan Mahoutchi 2013. Synoptic- Thermodynamic Analysis of Shiraz Thunerstorms. Quarterly Journal of Geographic Information "Sepehr" Volume 22, Issue 85, Pages 4227.
20. Mohammadi, Hossein; Khazaee, Mahdi; Mahoutchi, Mohammad Hassan and esmail Abbasi 2016. Synoptic analysis of Mashhad severe thunderstorms. Knowledge of Hazarda, Volume 3, Issue 2, Summer, 170-155, (In Persian).
21. J.B.,Cohuet, Romero, R., Homar, V., Ducrocq, V. and Ramis, C. 2011. "Initiation of a severe thunderstorm over the Mediterranean Sea". Atmospheric Research. 100. pp. 603–620.
22. E. García-Ortega., A. Merino., L. López., J.L. Sánchez., 2012. Role of mesoscale factors at the onset of deep convection on hailstorm days and their relation to the synoptic patterns, Atmospheric Research, Vol. 114–115, No. 91–106.
23. Nicolau Pineda., Tomeu Rigo., Joan Bech., Xavier Soler., 2007, Lightning and precipitation relationship in summer thunderstorms: Case studies in the North Western Mediterranean region, Atmospheric Research, Vol. 85, No. 159–170.
24. E. García-Ortega., L. López., J.L. Sánchez., 2011, Atmospheric patterns associated with hailstorm days in the Ebro Valley, Spain, Atmospheric Research, Vol. 100, PP. 401–427.
25. Alijani, Bohlul 1995. The science of climatology. Quarterly Journal of Geographical Researches, No. 45, pp. 55-40, (In Persian).
26. Brent, Jr. 1993. Contemporary Climate and its Application in Environmental Studies, translated by Seyyed Abolfazl Masoudian, Isfahan University Press, (In Persian).
27. Changnon, A.S., 2001. Thunderstorm Rainfall in the Conterminous United States, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 82, No. 9, PP. 1925- 1940.
28. Technical and operational deputy of the General Directorate of the Network 2008. Codes descriptions and land survey methods (SINOP), National Meteorological Organization, (In Persian).
29. Haghighat Kashani, Khosrou 1991. Frequency of thunderstorms in Iran, master's thesis, supervisor Ardakani, Hossein and Parviz Irannejad, Institute of Geophysics, University of Tehran, (In Persian).
30. Ezatyan, Victoria 2003. The role of physical processes in the intensify of atmospheric instability, Iran Geophysical Conference, (In Persian).
31. Manuchehr Farajzadeh Taher Mostafapoor 2012. Temporal and Spatial Analysis of Hail in Iran. Volume 10, Issue 28, Winte, 55-66, (In Persian).
32. Alijani, Bahlul 2009. Synoptic Climatology, Samt Press. Tehran, Iran, (In Persian).
Richard G.V., V. 2007. Applied Multivariate Statistical Analysis,