رابطه بین مصرف انرژی تجدید پذیر و رشد اقتصادی در ایران

محورهای موضوعی : اقتصاد محیط زیست

محمد شریف کریمی ¹ , کیومرث سهیلی ² , شیما برزگری ³

1 - استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه رازی، کرمانشاه. ایران. (مسوول مکاتبات).
2 - دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه رازی، کرمانشاه. ایران.
3 - دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد انرژی، دانشگاه رازی، کرمانشاه.ایران.

تاریخ دریافت : 1396/05/23 تاریخ پذیرش : 1396/09/22 تاریخ انتشار : 1399/06/01

کلید واژه: کشور ایران, کرانه‌های ARDL, VECM, رشد اقتصادی, مصرف انرژی تجدید پذیر,

چکیده مقاله :

زمینه و هدف: کشور ایران یکی از مصادیق الگوی رشد با تکیه ‌بر منابع طبیعی و به خصوص سوخت‌های فسیلی می باشد. با توجه به پایان‌پذیر بودن منابع نفتی و گازی کشور از هم‌ اکنون باید به فکر منابع جایگزین بود. یکی از این راه‌ها، ایجاد زمینه برای استفاده از انرژی‌های تجدید پذیر به جای سوخت‌های فسیلی است. از دیدگاه اقتصاد انرژی، ایجاد تنوع در منابع انرژی و بهره‌گیری از سبدی متشکل از سوخت‌های مختلف امری منطقی می باشد. همچنین، انتظار می‌رود آلودگی ناشی از تولید نیز با افزایش استفاده از انرژی‌های تجدید پذیر کاهش یابد. هدف پژوهش حاضر بررسی رابطه بین مصرف انرژی تجدید پذیر و رشد اقتصادی در کشور ایران با استفاده از رویکرد کرانه های ARDL و مدل VECMمی باشد. روش بررسی: در این پژوهش با استفاده ازنرم افزارEviews 9 و روش اقتصاد سنجی کرانه های ARDLو مدل VECMبه مطالعه موردی کشور ایران طی سال های 1360 تا 1393 پرداخته شده است. یافته ها: نتایج نشان می‌دهد در بلندمدت رابطه علیت بین مصرف انرژی تجدید پذیر و رشد اقتصادی وجود ندارد و فقط بین نیروی کار و رشد اقتصادی رابطه یک‌طرفه برقرار است. ولی در کوتاه مدت رابطه یک‌طرفه‌ای از رشد اقتصادی به سوی مصرف انرژی‌های تجدید پذیر، همچنین رابطه یک‌طرفه ای از نیروی کار به رشد اقتصادی، مصرف انرژی تجدید پذیر و سرمایه در حال اجرا است. بررسی پویایی‌های کوتاه مدت الگو با استفاده از توابع عکس‌العمل آنی، نشان داد که شوک‌ها درنهایت اثرشان از بین می رود و غالباً روی متغیر پاسخ اثر مثبت دارند. بنابراین در بلندمدت، شوک‌های وارده از طرف متغیرهای مستقل از جمله مصرف سرانه انرژی‌های تجدید پذیر بر رشد اقتصادی به تعادل می‌رسد. بحث و نتیجه گیری: با توجه به تأثیر مثبت و از لحاظ آماری، در اغلب موارد معنی دار متغیرهای مصرف انرژی تجدید پذیر، سرمایه و نیروی کار بر رشد اقتصادی در کشور ایران، پیشنهاد می شود که با صرفه جویی در مصرف انرژی، بهبود تکنولوژی های تولید، کاهش هزینه در استفاده از انرژی های نو، تقویت سیاست گذاری های مناسب و کارآمد و ایجاد قوانین حمایتی، باعث افزایش استفاده از انرژی تجدید پذیر که نقش بسزایی در اقتصاد و محیط زیست دارند، گردید.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Background and Objective: Iran is one of the examples of growth patterns relying on natural resources, especially fossil fuels. Considering the end of the oil and gas resources of the country, from now on, there should be alternative sources of thought. One way of doing this is to using renewable energies instead of fossil fuels. From the point of view of energy economy, it is logical to create diversification in energy sources and utilize a basket of different fuels. Also, production-related pollution is expected to decrease as well by increasing the use of renewable energy. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in Iran using ARDL bounds and VECM. Method: In this study, using the Eviews 9 software and the ARDL Bounds econometric method and the VECM model, a case study of Iran in the years 1981 to 2014 has been conducted. Findings: The results show that there is no causal relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in the long run, and there is only one-way relationship between labor force and economic growth. But in the short run, there is a one-way relationship between economic growth and renewable energy use, as well as a one-way relationship between labor force and economic growth, renewable energy consumption and capital. Investigating the short-run dynamics of the pattern using instantaneous response functions showed that the shock eventually vanishes and often affects the response variable positively. Therefore, in the long run, shocks from independent variables, such as renewable energy consumption per capita, will be balanced against economic growth. Discussion and Conclusion: Considering the positive and statistically significant effects of renewable energy, capital and labor force variables on economic growth in Iran, it is suggested that by saving energy consumption, improving production technologies, reducing costs, the use of new energies, the promotion of appropriate and efficient policies and the creation of supportive laws will increase the use of renewable energy, which has a major role in the economy and the environment.

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