بررسی اثر استفاده از هوش مصنوعی در تجارت بین الملل
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محورهای موضوعی : دو فصلنامه علمی - تخصصی اقتصاد توسعه و برنامه ریزی
سید حسن شجاعی 1 * , هاشم زارع 2 , مهرزاد ابراهیمی 3
1 - دانشجوی دکتری، گروه مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد شیراز، ایران
2 - استاد یار دانشگاه ازاد اسلامی واحد شیراز
3 - دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی شیراز ، شیراز، ایران
کلید واژه: هوش مصنوعی, تجارت بین الملل, صادرات,
چکیده مقاله :
هدف اصلی این تحقیق بررسی تأثیر استفاده از هوش مصنوعی بر تجارت بین‌المللی ایران است. جامعه آماری این تحقیق شامل داده‌های اقتصادی ایران در سال 1400 است و نمونه آماری بر اساس داده‌های موجود در بانک جهانی، (IMF)، سازمان تجارت جهانی و سازمان مالکیت فکری جهانی انتخاب شده است. روش تحقیق از مدل رگرسیون (OLS) برای تحلیل داده‌های مقطعی استفاده شده است. یافته‌های تحقیق نشان داد که شاخص آمادگی دولت برای استفاده از هوش مصنوعی تأثیر مثبت و معناداری بر واردات و صادرات ایران دارد. ضریب این متغیر در رگرسیون واردات و صادرات به ترتیب 0.0839 و 0.0952 بوده که هر دو در سطح معناداری 99% تأثیرگذار هستند. همچنین، تعداد ثبت اختراعات مرتبط با هوش مصنوعی تأثیر منفی (هرچند کم) بر واردات و صادرات داشت که ضریب آن به ترتیب -0.000018 و -0.0000171 است. از سوی دیگر، کسری بودجه تأثیر منفی بر تجارت ایران دارد؛ ضریب کسری بودجه در رگرسیون واردات و صادرات به ترتیب -1.436 و -4.019 است که نشان‌دهنده کاهش توانایی کشور در افزایش تجارت به دلیل محدودیت‌های مالی است. جمعیت ایران نیز تأثیر مثبت بر تجارت داشته و ضریب آن در رگرسیون واردات و صادرات به ترتیب 0.0027 و 0.0028 بوده که هر دو در سطح 99% معنادار هستند. در نهایت، نتایج این تحقیق نشان داد که عضویت در سازمان تجارت جهانی می‌تواند نقش مهمی در افزایش تأثیرات مثبت هوش مصنوعی بر تجارت بین‌المللی ایفا کند. کشورهایی که عضو سازمان تجارت جهانی هستند، توانسته‌اند از هوش مصنوعی بهره بیشتری در افزایش واردات و صادرات خود ببرند.
The main purpose of this research is to investigate the effect of using artificial intelligence on Iran's international trade. The findings of the research showed that the indicator of the government's readiness to use artificial intelligence has a positive and significant effect on the import and export of Iran. The coefficient of this variable in the regression of import and export was 0.0839 and 0.0952, respectively, both of which are effective at a significance level of 99%. Also, the number of patents related to artificial intelligence had a negative (though small) effect on imports and exports, the coefficient of which is -0.000018 and -0.0000171, respectively. On the other hand, the budget deficit has a negative effect on Iran's business; The coefficient of budget deficit in import and export regression is -1.436 and -4.019, respectively, which indicates the reduction of the country's ability to increase trade due to financial restrictions. Iran's population also has a positive effect on trade and its coefficient in import and export regression is 0.0027 and 0.0028, respectively, both of which are significant at the 99% level. Finally, the results of this research showed that membership in the World Trade Organization can play an important role in increasing the positive effects of artificial intelligence on international trade. Countries that are members of the World Trade Organization have been able to benefit more from artificial intelligence in increasing their imports and exports.
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