الویت بندی راهبردهای مناسب جهت مقابله با ریسک های کلیدی در پروژه های طراحی واحدهای نفت، گاز و پتروشیمی
محورهای موضوعی : مدیریت صنعتیبهروز لیراوی نیا 1 , محمود مدیری 2 * , کیامرث فتحی 3 , عبدالرحیم رحیمی 4
1 - دانشجوی دکتری، گروه مدیریت صنعتی، واحد تهران جنوب، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران
2 - دانشیار، گروه مدیریت صنعتی، واحد تهران جنوب، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران
3 - استادیار، گروه مدیریت صنعتی، واحد تهران جنوب، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران
4 - ستادیار، گروه مدیریت برنامه ریزی امور فرهنگی، واحد تهران جنوب، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران
کلید واژه: ریسک, پروژه های طراحی, تصمیم گیری فازی, نفت, گاز و پتروشیمی ایران,
چکیده مقاله :
مدیریت صحیح ریسک یکی از مهم‌ترین عوامل در بهبود طراحی است، که با توجه به بی‌ثباتی اقتصاد جهانی و پیشرفت فناوری اهمیت یافته است. در عین حال، طراحی‌های توسعه‌یافته ممکن است آسیب‌پذیرتر شوند و سازمان‌ها را در معرض ریسک‌های بالاتر قرار دهند. دستیابی به پایداری به‌عنوان راهکاری مؤثر برای مقابله با چالش‌های امروزی در سطح جهانی شناخته شده است. در صنعت نفت، گاز و پتروشیمی، به‌دلیل کلیدی بودن و ریسک‌های بالا، این موضوع اهمیت ویژه‌ای دارد، به‌ویژه در ایران که آثار زیست‌محیطی این صنعت قابل توجه است. اما در پژوهش‌های اخیر، توجه کافی به فرآیندهای شناسایی و ارزیابی ریسک‌های طراحی نشده است. بنابراین، هدف این پژوهش شناسایی و الویت بندی راهبردهای مناسب جهت مقابله با ریسک‌های طراحی در صنعت نفت، گاز و پتروشیمی ایران انتخاب گردیده است. پژوهش حاضر از نوع توصیفی- پیمایشی و به لحاظ تکنیک ها و داده‌های مورد استفاده، کیفی و کمّی توامآن می‌باشد. در این مطالعه، 44 عامل ریسک مؤثر بر طراحی بر اساس مرور ادبیات شناسایی شد و با نظرات خبرگان در دو مرحله، به 20 عامل کلیدی محدود گردید. روایی پرسشنامه در دو مرحله تایید شد و ضریب آلفای کرونباخ بالای 7/0 نشان‌دهنده پایایی ابزار بود. برای تجزیه و تحلیل عوامل ریسک، از روش‌هایی مانند اعداد اولویت ریسک، دلفی، سوآرا، مولتی‌مورای فازی و تحلیل ماتریس‌های ریسک استفاده شد. طبق یافته‌های پژوهش، چهار عامل ریسک، "ضعف مشاوره در ﺑﺮﮔﺸﺖ ﺗﺠﻬﻴﺰات ﺑﻪ تأﻣﻴﻦﻛﻨﻨﺪه از ﻃﺮفﭘﻴﻤﺎﻧﻜﺎر"، "ارزیابی نادرست قوانین و مقررات زیست محیطی در اجرای پروژه"، "اﻧﺘﺨﺎب مشاوران و پیمانکارانﻓﺮﻋﻲﻣﺘﻌﻬﺪﺑﻪ وﺳﻴﻠﻪمشاور اصلی"و" همراستایی نادرست معرفی تجهیزات دفع آلودگی با ماهیت کار"، به نسبت سایر عوامل ریسک از اولویت بالاتری در پروژه های طراحی در صنعت نفت، گاز و پتروشیمی ایران، برخوردار می‌باشند. پیشنهاد می‌شود صاحبان صنایع، اقدامات جدی و مستمری را در زمینه های"ارتقاء سطح دانش فرآیندی مبتنی بر استاندارد های روز محیط زیست"انجام دهند.
Effective risk management is a fundamental factor in enhancing design quality, increasingly emphasized due to global economic instability and technological advancements. Simultaneously, developed designs tend to become more vulnerable, exposing organizations to elevated risks. Achieving sustainability has been recognized as an effective strategy for addressing contemporary global challenges. In the oil, gas, and petrochemical industries, this issue holds particular significance due to the sector’s critical and high-risk nature, especially in Iran, given the substantial environmental impacts associated with these industries. However, recent research has paid insufficient attention to the processes of identifying and assessing design risks. Therefore, the primary goal of this study is to identify and prioritize appropriate strategies for managing design risks within Iran’s oil, gas, and petrochemical sectors. This research is of a descriptive-survey nature, employing both qualitative and quantitative techniques for data collection and analysis. Based on a comprehensive literature review, 44 risk factors affecting design were initially identified, which were subsequently refined to 20 key factors through expert opinions gathered in two sequential stages. The validity of the questionnaire was confirmed at both stages, and a Cronbach’s alpha coefficient above 0.7 indicated the reliability of the measurement instrument. For data analysis, techniques such as Risk Priority Numbers (RPN), Delphi method, SWARA, Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM), and risk matrix analysis were employed. The findings indicated that four risk factors—namely, “weak consultation in returning equipment to the supplier by the contractor,” “incorrect assessment of environmental laws and regulations during project execution,” “selection of subcontractors and consultants contracted by the primary consultant,” and “misalignment between the introduction of pollution control equipment and the nature of the work”—are of higher priority compared to other risks in design projects within Iran’s oil, gas, and petrochemical industries. It is recommended that industry stakeholders undertake serious and continuous measures to improve process knowledge, particularly in line with current environmental standards, as a means of mitigating these key risks.
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