ارائه مدلی پویا برای توسعه بهینه و پایدار استفاده از اتوبوس‌های شهری گازسوز (CNG) تهران
محورهای موضوعی :
مدیریت صنعتی
Seyed Jamalaldin Razavinasab
1
,
Mahdi Fadaei Ashkiki
2
,
Mahdi Homayounfar
3
,
Maryam Ooshaksaraie
4
1 - PhD student in Industrial Management in Production and Operations, Department of Management, Rasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Rasht, Iran
2 - Assistant Professor, Department of Industrial Management, Rasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Rasht, Iran
3 - Assistant Professor, Department of Industrial Management, Rasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Rasht, Iran
4 - Assistant Professor, Department of Industrial Management, Rasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Rasht, Iran
تاریخ دریافت : 1400/08/05
تاریخ پذیرش : 1401/02/11
تاریخ انتشار : 1401/03/05
کلید واژه:
پویایی‌شناسی سیستم‌ها,
اتوبوس‌های شهری گازسوز (CNG),
مدیریت مصرف انرژی,
چکیده مقاله :
امروزه مدیریت مصرف انرژی ازآن‌جهت اهمیت دارد که علاوه بر حفظ ذخایر خدادادی برای آیندگان، سلامت محیط‌زیست، اقتصاد و امنیت انرژی کشور را تضمین می‌کند. در شهر تهران آلودگی هوا به یکی از بحران‌هایی تبدیل‌شده که هرسال جان هزاران نفر را به خطر می‌اندازد. از سوی دیگر تأمین سوخت گازوئیل در شرایط سیاسی فعلی کشور و پرداخت یارانه کلان به این سوخت، دولت را دچار چالش نموده است. یکی از راه‌های جلوگیری از این مشکلات، استفاده از خودروهای گازسوز (CNG) در سیستم حمل‌ونقل عمومی شهری است. متأسفانه در سال‌های اخیر استفاده از اتوبوس‌های گازسوز (CNG) در سیستم حمل‌ونقل عمومی کم شده است. این مقاله به استناد رهیافت‌های تاریخی و با استفاده از روش پویایی‌شناسی سیستم‌ها، عوامل و بازخوردهای مؤثر بر افزایش پایدار تعداد اتوبوس‌های گازسوز (CNG) را شناسایی و مدلی پویا برای توسعه بهینه و پایدار استفاده از اتوبوس‌های شهری گازسوز (CNG) ارائه نموده است. پس از اعتبارسنجی مدل و شبیه‌سازی بازه 10 ساله، نتایج نشان داد درصورتی‌که حاکمیت به‌صورت جدی در حوزه خرید اتوبوس‌های گازسوز عمل نکند تا سال 1410 سهم اتوبوس‌های گازسوز (CNG) در ناوگان حمل‌ونقل از 38 درصد به 14 درصد کاهش میابد. در صورت افزایش سالانه 282 دستگاه اتوبوس گازسوز (CNG) به ناوگان اتوبوس‌رانی شهری تهران تا سال 1410 تعداد اتوبوس‌های دیزلی و گازسوز (CNG) برابر و شرایط پایدار نسبی برقرار می‌شود. در این شرایط میزان آلایندگی ناشی از سوخت ناوگان اتوبوس‌ها کاهش و صرفه‌جویی اقتصادی ازنظر پرداخت یارانه سوخت برای دولت به همراه خواهد داشت.
چکیده انگلیسی:
Energy consumption management is essential because the natural resources should be preserved for the future people, and environment, the economy and the energy security of the country are also considered. Air pollution in Tehran has increased very much and thousands of people die every year because of it. In addition, the supply of diesel fuel under the current political circumstances of the country and the allocation of high value of subsidies to it have become a big problem for the government; the use of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) buses for public transportation can be a solution to this problem. However, the CNG buses are not widely used in recent years. Based on historical approaches and using system dynamics (SD), the factors and feedback affecting the sustainable increase in the number CNG buses are identified in this paper and a dynamic model is introduced for the optimal and sustainable development of CNG buses. The model was validated and a 10-year period was simulated; according to the results, if the government does not increase the rate of its purchased CNG buses, the rate of the CBG buses being used now will be reduced from 38 percent to 14 percent in 2032. If 282 new CNG buses are purchased annually, the number of CNG buses and the number of diesel buses will be almost the same in 2032. Accordingly, fuel pollution produced by the buses and the fuel subsidies will be reduced.
منابع و مأخذ:
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Amidpour, M; Moradi, M; Ghorbani, B; Ahmadinejad, SA & Akbari, A. (2012) Modeling and Analysis of Energy System, Tehran: National Iranian Petroleum Products Distribution Company.
Amin-Tahmasbi, H., & Razavinasab, S. J. (2019). Analysis of the effective variables of the development of use of compressed natural gas (CNG) instead of gas in Iran's road transport system using the system dynamics model. Journal of Transportation Research, 17(3), 45-58
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Duych, R., & Chambers, M. (2008). Transportation Statistics Annual Report 2008.
Chung, F., Handjani, S., & Jungreis, D. (2003). Generalizations of Polya's urn problem. Annals of combinatorics, 7(2), 141-153.
Dale, F & Ghanbarzadeh, M (2012) A Look at the Relationship between Natural Gas Consumption in Economic Growth and Prioritization of Gas Consumption in the Country, Economic Journal, 12(2), 143-148.
Faghih, N., Ranaei-Kordshooli, H., Mohammadi, A., Samadi, A. H., Moosavi-haghighi, H., & Ghafournian, M. (2014). Evaluationof services supply chain in telecommunication company of Iran using system dynamics approach. Journal of Industrial Management Perspective, 11 (11), 111-137.
Fartokzadeh, H. (1993) A Look at the Dynamics of Systems, Journal of Management Knowledge, 19(3), 25-34.
Fartokzadeh, H. & eshraghi. H. (2015) Dynamic Modeling of the Effect of Dual-Combustion of Vehicles on Pollution Production and Energy Consumption, Quarterly Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 17(1), 1-19.
Fontoura, W. B., Chaves, G. D. L. D., & Ribeiro, G. M. (2019). The Brazilian urban mobility policy: The impact in São Paulo transport system using system dynamics. Transport policy, 73, 51-61.
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Gnann, T., Speth, D., Seddig, K., Stich, M., Schade, W., & Vilchez, J. G. (2022). How to integrate real-world user behavior into models of the market diffusion of alternative fuels in passenger cars-An in-depth comparison of three models for Germany. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 158, 112103.
Gupta, M., Bandyopadhyay, K. R., & Singh, S. K. (2019). Measuring effectiveness of carbon tax on Indian road passenger transport: A system dynamics approach. Energy Economics, 81, 341-354.
Haeri Yazdi, A. (2017) Policy-making to determine the portfolio of energy carriers in the transportation sector of the country, Journal of Strategic Studies of Public Policy, 21(6), 251-260.
Haghshenas, H., Vaziri, M., & Gholamialam, A. (2015). Evaluation of sustainable policy in urban transportation using system dynamics and world cities data: A case study in Isfahan. Cities,45, 104-115.
Han, J., Bhandari, K., & Hayashi, Y. (2010). Assessment of policies toward an environmentally friendly urban transport system: Case study of Delhi, India. Journal of urban planning and development, 136(1), 86-93.
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Ministry of Industry, Mines and Trade (2021) Reports within the Ministry Ministry of Industry, Mine and Trade. Transportation industries
Mirfatah, SM. (2005) Economic Evaluation of Fuel Replacement in Tehran Bus Fleet, (Master Thesis), Imam Sadegh University of Tehran.
NIOPDC (2021) In- National Iranian Oil Products Distribution Company reports. CNG plan management
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Romejko, K., & Nakano, M. (2017). Portfolio analysis of alternative fuel vehicles considering technological advancement, energy security and policy.Journal of Cleaner Production, 142, 39-49.
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Shamsapour, N., Hajinezhad, A., & Noorollahi, Y. (2021). Developing a system dynamics approach for CNG vehicles for low-carbon urban transport: a case study. International Journal of Low-Carbon Technologies, 16(2), 577-591.
Sterman, J. (2000). Instructor's Manual to Accompany Business Dyanmics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. McGraw-Hill.
Tang, K. X., & Waters, N. M. (2005). The internet, GIS and public participation in transportation planning. Progress in Planning, 64(1), 7-62.
TMICTO (2021) Tehran City Statistics (Tehran City Statistical Yearbook), Tehran Municipality Information and Communication Technology Organization Publications
Wang, H., Fang, H., Yu, X., & Wang, K. (2015). Development of natural gas vehicles in China: An assessment of enabling factors and barriers. Energy policy, 85, 80-93.
Yeh, S. (2007). An empirical analysis on the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles: The case of natural gas vehicles. Energy policy, 35(11), 5865-5875.
Yuan, J. H., Zhou, S., Peng, T. D., Wang, G. H., & Ou, X. M. (2018). Petroleum substitution, greenhouse gas emissions reduction and environmental benefits from the development of natural gas vehicles in China. Petroleum Science, 15(3), 644-656.
Zareean, R & Shakoori Ganjavi, F. (2016) Systematic Analysis of Gasoline Demand and Estimation of Price Elasticity of Its Demand in Tehran Province, Iranian Journal of Energy Economics, 5 (18), 61-98.
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Abedi, Z; Arhmandi, R; Anabi, F & Kiwani, A. (2011) Investigating the Social Resources of Replacing CNG Instead of Gasoline in Tehran Urban Taxis, Environmental Science and Technology, 13(2), 39-48.
Amidpour, M; Moradi, M; Ghorbani, B; Ahmadinejad, SA & Akbari, A. (2012) Modeling and Analysis of Energy System, Tehran: National Iranian Petroleum Products Distribution Company.
Amin-Tahmasbi, H., & Razavinasab, S. J. (2019). Analysis of the effective variables of the development of use of compressed natural gas (CNG) instead of gas in Iran's road transport system using the system dynamics model. Journal of Transportation Research, 17(3), 45-58
Amin-Tahmasebi, H., & Razavinsab, S. (2019) Improving the use of CNG fuel in the transportation sector with the approach of analysis and development of strategic options, Quarterly Journal of Energy Policy and Planning Research, 15(5), 145-169.
Amin-Tahmasebi, H., & Razavinsab, S. (2021) Identification and Prioritization of Effective Factors in Strengthening the CNG Industry in the Transportation Sector by a Combined Fuzzy Group Decision Making Method, Road Scientific Quarterly, published online from 8 May 2021.
Arthur, W. B. (1994). Increasing returns and path dependence in the economy. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Arthur, B. (1994). On Generalized Urn Scheme of the Polya Kind. Kibernetika, 3.
Barisa, A., & Rosa, M. (2018). A system dynamics model for CO2 emission mitigation policy design in road transport sector. Energy Procedia, 147, 419-427.
Duych, R., & Chambers, M. (2008). Transportation Statistics Annual Report 2008.
Chung, F., Handjani, S., & Jungreis, D. (2003). Generalizations of Polya's urn problem. Annals of combinatorics, 7(2), 141-153.
Dale, F & Ghanbarzadeh, M (2012) A Look at the Relationship between Natural Gas Consumption in Economic Growth and Prioritization of Gas Consumption in the Country, Economic Journal, 12(2), 143-148.
Faghih, N., Ranaei-Kordshooli, H., Mohammadi, A., Samadi, A. H., Moosavi-haghighi, H., & Ghafournian, M. (2014). Evaluationof services supply chain in telecommunication company of Iran using system dynamics approach. Journal of Industrial Management Perspective, 11 (11), 111-137.
Fartokzadeh, H. (1993) A Look at the Dynamics of Systems, Journal of Management Knowledge, 19(3), 25-34.
Fartokzadeh, H. & eshraghi. H. (2015) Dynamic Modeling of the Effect of Dual-Combustion of Vehicles on Pollution Production and Energy Consumption, Quarterly Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 17(1), 1-19.
Fontoura, W. B., Chaves, G. D. L. D., & Ribeiro, G. M. (2019). The Brazilian urban mobility policy: The impact in São Paulo transport system using system dynamics. Transport policy, 73, 51-61.
Forrester, J. W. (1961). Industrial dynamics. 2nd printing. Mass: Productivity Press, Cambridge.
Gnann, T., Speth, D., Seddig, K., Stich, M., Schade, W., & Vilchez, J. G. (2022). How to integrate real-world user behavior into models of the market diffusion of alternative fuels in passenger cars-An in-depth comparison of three models for Germany. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 158, 112103.
Gupta, M., Bandyopadhyay, K. R., & Singh, S. K. (2019). Measuring effectiveness of carbon tax on Indian road passenger transport: A system dynamics approach. Energy Economics, 81, 341-354.
Haeri Yazdi, A. (2017) Policy-making to determine the portfolio of energy carriers in the transportation sector of the country, Journal of Strategic Studies of Public Policy, 21(6), 251-260.
Haghshenas, H., Vaziri, M., & Gholamialam, A. (2015). Evaluation of sustainable policy in urban transportation using system dynamics and world cities data: A case study in Isfahan. Cities,45, 104-115.
Han, J., Bhandari, K., & Hayashi, Y. (2010). Assessment of policies toward an environmentally friendly urban transport system: Case study of Delhi, India. Journal of urban planning and development, 136(1), 86-93.
Hosseini, M., Dincer, I., & Ozbilen, A. (2018). Expert Opinions on Natural Gas Vehicles Research Needs for Energy Policy Development. In Exergetic, Energetic and Environmental Dimensions(pp. 731-750). Academic Press.
Johnston, J. (1956). Scale, costs and profitability in road passenger transport. The Journal of Industrial Economics, 4(3), 207-223.
Kian, Morteza; Azizi, Amir M & Zeinalnejad, Masoumeh (2022) Using CNN modeling of the dynamics of the studied systems, developed CNG developments in the country's fuel economy, (Master Thesis) Research Sciences of Islamic Azad University of Tehran.
Khan, M. I. (2017). Policy options for the sustainable development of natural gas as transportation fuel. Energy Policy, 110, 126-136.
Lei, X., Zhang, J., & Li, J. (2012). A system dynamics model for urban low-carbon transport and simulation in the city of Shanghai, China. AISS: Advances in Information Sciences and Service Sciences, 4(1), 239-246.
Liu, X., Ma, S., Tian, J., Jia, N., & Li, G. (2015). A system dynamics approach to scenario analysis for urban passenger transport energy consumption and CO2 emissions: A case study of Beijing. Energy Policy, 85, 253-270.
Lorenzi, G., & Baptista, P. (2018). Promotion of renewable energy sources in the Portuguese transport sector: A scenario analysis. Journal of cleaner production, 186, 918-932.
Ministry of Industry, Mines and Trade (2021) Reports within the Ministry Ministry of Industry, Mine and Trade. Transportation industries
Mirfatah, SM. (2005) Economic Evaluation of Fuel Replacement in Tehran Bus Fleet, (Master Thesis), Imam Sadegh University of Tehran.
NIOPDC (2021) In- National Iranian Oil Products Distribution Company reports. CNG plan management
Ostsd Jafari, M & Habibian, M. (2014) Long-Term Evaluation of the Combined Effect of Transportation Demand Management Policies Using the System Dynamics Model Case Study: Mashhad Metropolis, Transportation Engineering Quarterly, 6(1), 21-34.
Petroleum, British. (2020) Statistics https://www. Bp. Com /en/global/corporate/ energy-economics/ statistical-review-of-world-energy. Html.
Razavinsab, S. J. (2016) Identification and Prioritization of Obstacles in the Effective Implementation of CNG Site Development, Case Study, CNG Project Management, N.I.O.P.D.C, (Master Thesis) Research Sciences of Islamic Azad University of Tehran,
Romejko, K., & Nakano, M. (2017). Portfolio analysis of alternative fuel vehicles considering technological advancement, energy security and policy.Journal of Cleaner Production, 142, 39-49.
Schwaninger, M., & Mandl, C. (2011, February). Understanding the system dynamics of high-technology markets: Pólya processes with positive feedback, path dependence and lock-in. In International Conference on Computer Aided Systems Theory(pp. 129-136). Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg.
Senge, P. M. (2014). The fifth discipline fieldbook: Strategies and tools for building a learning organization. Currency.
Shah, M. S., Halder, P. K., Shamsuzzaman, A. S. M., Hossain, M. S., Pal, S. K., & Sarker, E. (2017). Perspectives of biogas conversion into Bio-CNG for automobile fuel in Bangladesh. Journal of Renewable Energy, 2017.
Shamsapour, N., Hajinezhad, A., & Noorollahi, Y. (2021). Developing a system dynamics approach for CNG vehicles for low-carbon urban transport: a case study. International Journal of Low-Carbon Technologies, 16(2), 577-591.
Sterman, J. (2000). Instructor's Manual to Accompany Business Dyanmics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. McGraw-Hill.
Tang, K. X., & Waters, N. M. (2005). The internet, GIS and public participation in transportation planning. Progress in Planning, 64(1), 7-62.
TMICTO (2021) Tehran City Statistics (Tehran City Statistical Yearbook), Tehran Municipality Information and Communication Technology Organization Publications
Wang, H., Fang, H., Yu, X., & Wang, K. (2015). Development of natural gas vehicles in China: An assessment of enabling factors and barriers. Energy policy, 85, 80-93.
Yeh, S. (2007). An empirical analysis on the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles: The case of natural gas vehicles. Energy policy, 35(11), 5865-5875.
Yuan, J. H., Zhou, S., Peng, T. D., Wang, G. H., & Ou, X. M. (2018). Petroleum substitution, greenhouse gas emissions reduction and environmental benefits from the development of natural gas vehicles in China. Petroleum Science, 15(3), 644-656.
Zareean, R & Shakoori Ganjavi, F. (2016) Systematic Analysis of Gasoline Demand and Estimation of Price Elasticity of Its Demand in Tehran Province, Iranian Journal of Energy Economics, 5 (18), 61-98.
