طبقه‌بندی ریسک‌های کلیدی پروژه‌های ساختمانی ایران با استفاده از مدل‌سازی معادلات ساختاری
محورهای موضوعی :
مدیریت صنعتی
Kajal Zarei
1
,
Bahareh Mohebban
2
,
Alireza Esmaeilzadeh
3
,
Ahmad Jamalian
4
1 - Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Sanandaj Branch, Sanandaj, Iran.
2 - PhD student at Department of Industrial Management, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
3 - MSc. in Industrial Management, Faculty of Management and Accounting, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran.
4 - MSc. in industrial Management, Faculty of Economic & Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran.
تاریخ دریافت : 1397/09/02
تاریخ پذیرش : 1397/11/04
تاریخ انتشار : 1397/11/25
کلید واژه:
مدیریت ریسک پروژه,
مدل‌سازی معادلات ساختاری,
تحلیل عاملی,
پروژه‌های ساختمانی,
چکیده مقاله :
مدیریت ریسک پروژه یک جزء حیاتی از مدیریت پروژه به‌عنوان یک ریسک محسوب می‌شود که اگر به‌خوبی مدیریت نشود ممکن است به شکست پروژه منجر شود. در این راستا، هدف این پژوهش طبقه‌بندی ریسک‌های کلیدی پروژه‌های ساختمانی ایرانی توسط مدل‌سازی معادلات ساختاری بوده است. برای این کار پس از بررسی ادبیات نظری پژوهش 28 شاخص برای ارزیابی ریسک پروژه‌های ساختمانی شناسایی شدند. سپس پرسشنامه‌ای بین خبرگان موجود در صنعت ساخت‌وساز توزیع گردید و بر اساس 239 پرسشنامه به‌دست‌آمده مدل مفهومی ریسک پروژه‌های ساختمانی با روش تحلیل عاملی تأییدی برآورد شد و شاخص‌های ریسک پروژه در پنج گروه محیط، کیفیت، هزینه، زمان و ایمنی عامل بندی شدند. نتایج نشان دادند که اولویت ابعاد ریسک پروژه‌های ساختمانی به ترتیب ریسک‌های مرتبط با زمان؛ ریسک‌های مرتبط با هزینه؛ ریسک‌های مرتبط با کیفیت؛ ریسک‌های مرتبط با محیط؛ و ریسک‌های مرتبط با ایمنی است. نتایج پژوهش مدلی جامع برای ریسک پروژه‌های ساختمانی ارائه کرده است که می‌تواند مورداستفاده مدیران پروژه و پژوهشگران قرار گیرد.
چکیده انگلیسی:
Project Risk Management is a critical component of project management as risks that are not well-managed may lead to project failures. This study aims to classify Iranian’s Construction Projects key risks by using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) technique. At first, based on a comprehensive literature review 28 indicators were identified to recognize the construction projects risk. Thereafter, a questionnaire was distributed amongst the experts of construction industry, and finally 239 questionnaires were collected. In the next step, the model of construction projects risks was estimated by using of Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) which the indicators explained five latent variables (Environmental, Quality, Cost, Time and Safety related factors). The results presented that priorities of the indicator of “Construction Projects Risks” are “Time Risk”, “Cost Risk”, “Quality Risk”, “Environment Risk” and “Safety Risk”, respectively. Furthermore, the results of the research provided a comprehensive model for the construction projects risks, which it can be used by scholars and project managers.
منابع و مأخذ:
Ahmed, S. M., Ahmad, R., Saram, D. E., & Darshi, D. (1999). Risk Management Trends in the Hong Kong Construction Industry: A Comparison of Contractors and Owners Perceptions. Engineering Construction and Architectural Management, 6(3), 225-234.
Alexander, C. (2005). The Present and Future of Financial Risk Management. Journal of Financial Econometrics, 3(1), 3-25.
Asgharizadeh, A., & Saeidi, A. (2012). Cost Risk Assessment of Power Plant Projects Based on Three-Dimensional Model. Industrial Management, 4(8), 1-14.
Baker, W., & Reid, H. (2004). Identifying and Managing Risk. Pearson Education. Frenchs Forest. Australia.
Danıelsson, J., Jorgensen, B. N., & de Vries, C. G. (2002). Incentives for Effective Risk Management. Journal of Banking & Finance, 26(7), 1407-1425.
Dey, P. K. (2010). Managing Project Risk Using Combined Analytic Hierarchy Process and Risk Map. Applied Soft Computing, 10(4), 990-1000.
El-Sayegh, S. M., & Mansour, M. H. (2015). Risk Assessment and Allocation in Highway Construction Projects in the UAE. Journal of Management in Engineering, 04015004.
Esmaeilzadeh, A. (2011). Risk Classification of Construction Projects and Analysis them using Structural Equation Modeling and Grey Approach. M.Sc Thesis. Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran.
Fang, D., Li, M., Fong, P. S. W., & Shen, L. (2004). Risks in Chinese Construction Market-Contractors' Perspective. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 130(6), 853-861.
Fatholahzadeh, S., & Mehdizadeh, R. (2013). Investigating the Risks of Road Construction Projects in Iran as A developing Country, International Conference on Civil Engineering Architecture & Urban Sustainable Development, 18 &19 December 2013, Tabriz, Iran.
Habibi, A. (2013). Practical Teaching of SPSS (3th ed.). Pars Modir. Tehran. Iran.
Khoshghalb, A. (2011). Identification and Ranking of Construction projects Risk Based on PMBOK Standard by Grey Topsis Method. M.Sc Thesis. University of Tehran, Tehran.
Mehregan, M. R., Asgharizadeh, E. A., & Safari, H. (2008). The Design a Model to Assess Competitiveness at the Firm Level by Using Structural Equation Modeling. Iranian Journal of Trade Studies, 12(46), 1-36.
Memar, A., & Reshadatjoo, H. (2014). Identifying Risk Management Determinants and Assessing its Effects on Strategic Management in Tondgooyan Petrochemical Company. Journal of Industrial Strategic Management, 11(34), 73-82.
Momeni, M., & Ghayoumi, A. F. (2012). Statistical Data Analysis Using SPSS (7th ed.). Tehran: Simaye Danesh.
Mousavi, S. M., Tavakkoli-Moghaddam, R., Azaron, A., Mojtahedi, S. M. H., & Hashemi, H. (2011). Risk Assessment for Highway Projects Using Jackknife Technique. Expert Systems with Applications, 38(5), 5514-5524.
Ojra, J. (2014). Strategic management accounting practices in Palestinian companies: application of contingency theory perspective (Doctoral dissertation, University of East Anglia).
Raftery, J. (2003). Risk Analysis in Project Management. Routledge. NY. USA.
Sarmad, Z., Bazargan, A., & Hejazi, E. (2014). Research Methods in the Behavioral Sciences (26th ed.). Agah. Tehran.
Shaban, S. S. A. (2008). Factors Affecting the Performance of Construction Projects in the Gaza Strip (Doctoral dissertation, The Islamic University of Gaza–Palestine).
Shen, L. Y., Wu, G. W., & Ng, C. S. (2001). Risk assessment for construction joint Ventures in China. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 127(1), 76-81.
Smith, N. J., Merna, T., & Jobling, P. (2009). Managing Risk: in Construction Projects. John Wiley & Sons. USA.
Tam, C. M., Zeng, S. X., & Deng, Z. M. (2004). Identifying Elements of Poor Construction Safety Management in China. Safety Science, 42(7), 569-586.
Wang, S. Q., Dulaimi, M. F., & Aguria, M. Y. (2004). Risk Management Framework for Construction Projects in Developing Countries. Construction Management and Economics, 22(3), 237-252.
Ward, S., & Chapman, C. (2003). Transforming Project Risk Management into Project Uncertainty Management. International Journal of Project Management, 21(2), 97-105.
Xie, G., Yue, W., Wang, S., & Lai, K. K. (2010). Dynamic Risk Management in Petroleum Project Investment Based on A Variable Precision Rough Set Model.Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 77(6), 891-901.
Xu, Y., Yeung, J. F., Chan, A. P., Chan, D. W., Wang, S. Q., & Ke, Y. (2010). Developing A Risk Assessment Model for PPP Projects in China—A Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation Approach. Automation in Construction, 19(7), 929-943.
Zeng, S. X., Tam, C. M., & Tam, V. W. (2015). Integrating Safety, Environmental and Quality Risks for Project Management Using A fmea Method. Engineering Economics, 66(1).
Zhao, X., Hwang, B. G., & Phng, W. (2014). Construction Project Risk Management in Singapore: Resources, Effectiveness, Impact, and Understanding. KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering, 18(1), 27-36.
Zou, P. X., Zhang, G., & Wang, J. (2007). Understanding the Key Risks in Construction Projects in China. International Journal of Project Management, 25(6), 601-614.
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Ahmed, S. M., Ahmad, R., Saram, D. E., & Darshi, D. (1999). Risk Management Trends in the Hong Kong Construction Industry: A Comparison of Contractors and Owners Perceptions. Engineering Construction and Architectural Management, 6(3), 225-234.
Alexander, C. (2005). The Present and Future of Financial Risk Management. Journal of Financial Econometrics, 3(1), 3-25.
Asgharizadeh, A., & Saeidi, A. (2012). Cost Risk Assessment of Power Plant Projects Based on Three-Dimensional Model. Industrial Management, 4(8), 1-14.
Baker, W., & Reid, H. (2004). Identifying and Managing Risk. Pearson Education. Frenchs Forest. Australia.
Danıelsson, J., Jorgensen, B. N., & de Vries, C. G. (2002). Incentives for Effective Risk Management. Journal of Banking & Finance, 26(7), 1407-1425.
Dey, P. K. (2010). Managing Project Risk Using Combined Analytic Hierarchy Process and Risk Map. Applied Soft Computing, 10(4), 990-1000.
El-Sayegh, S. M., & Mansour, M. H. (2015). Risk Assessment and Allocation in Highway Construction Projects in the UAE. Journal of Management in Engineering, 04015004.
Esmaeilzadeh, A. (2011). Risk Classification of Construction Projects and Analysis them using Structural Equation Modeling and Grey Approach. M.Sc Thesis. Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran.
Fang, D., Li, M., Fong, P. S. W., & Shen, L. (2004). Risks in Chinese Construction Market-Contractors' Perspective. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 130(6), 853-861.
Fatholahzadeh, S., & Mehdizadeh, R. (2013). Investigating the Risks of Road Construction Projects in Iran as A developing Country, International Conference on Civil Engineering Architecture & Urban Sustainable Development, 18 &19 December 2013, Tabriz, Iran.
Habibi, A. (2013). Practical Teaching of SPSS (3th ed.). Pars Modir. Tehran. Iran.
Khoshghalb, A. (2011). Identification and Ranking of Construction projects Risk Based on PMBOK Standard by Grey Topsis Method. M.Sc Thesis. University of Tehran, Tehran.
Mehregan, M. R., Asgharizadeh, E. A., & Safari, H. (2008). The Design a Model to Assess Competitiveness at the Firm Level by Using Structural Equation Modeling. Iranian Journal of Trade Studies, 12(46), 1-36.
Memar, A., & Reshadatjoo, H. (2014). Identifying Risk Management Determinants and Assessing its Effects on Strategic Management in Tondgooyan Petrochemical Company. Journal of Industrial Strategic Management, 11(34), 73-82.
Momeni, M., & Ghayoumi, A. F. (2012). Statistical Data Analysis Using SPSS (7th ed.). Tehran: Simaye Danesh.
Mousavi, S. M., Tavakkoli-Moghaddam, R., Azaron, A., Mojtahedi, S. M. H., & Hashemi, H. (2011). Risk Assessment for Highway Projects Using Jackknife Technique. Expert Systems with Applications, 38(5), 5514-5524.
Ojra, J. (2014). Strategic management accounting practices in Palestinian companies: application of contingency theory perspective (Doctoral dissertation, University of East Anglia).
Raftery, J. (2003). Risk Analysis in Project Management. Routledge. NY. USA.
Sarmad, Z., Bazargan, A., & Hejazi, E. (2014). Research Methods in the Behavioral Sciences (26th ed.). Agah. Tehran.
Shaban, S. S. A. (2008). Factors Affecting the Performance of Construction Projects in the Gaza Strip (Doctoral dissertation, The Islamic University of Gaza–Palestine).
Shen, L. Y., Wu, G. W., & Ng, C. S. (2001). Risk assessment for construction joint Ventures in China. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 127(1), 76-81.
Smith, N. J., Merna, T., & Jobling, P. (2009). Managing Risk: in Construction Projects. John Wiley & Sons. USA.
Tam, C. M., Zeng, S. X., & Deng, Z. M. (2004). Identifying Elements of Poor Construction Safety Management in China. Safety Science, 42(7), 569-586.
Wang, S. Q., Dulaimi, M. F., & Aguria, M. Y. (2004). Risk Management Framework for Construction Projects in Developing Countries. Construction Management and Economics, 22(3), 237-252.
Ward, S., & Chapman, C. (2003). Transforming Project Risk Management into Project Uncertainty Management. International Journal of Project Management, 21(2), 97-105.
Xie, G., Yue, W., Wang, S., & Lai, K. K. (2010). Dynamic Risk Management in Petroleum Project Investment Based on A Variable Precision Rough Set Model.Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 77(6), 891-901.
Xu, Y., Yeung, J. F., Chan, A. P., Chan, D. W., Wang, S. Q., & Ke, Y. (2010). Developing A Risk Assessment Model for PPP Projects in China—A Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation Approach. Automation in Construction, 19(7), 929-943.
Zeng, S. X., Tam, C. M., & Tam, V. W. (2015). Integrating Safety, Environmental and Quality Risks for Project Management Using A fmea Method. Engineering Economics, 66(1).
Zhao, X., Hwang, B. G., & Phng, W. (2014). Construction Project Risk Management in Singapore: Resources, Effectiveness, Impact, and Understanding. KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering, 18(1), 27-36.
Zou, P. X., Zhang, G., & Wang, J. (2007). Understanding the Key Risks in Construction Projects in China. International Journal of Project Management, 25(6), 601-614.
