Optimal Cropping Pattern Modifications with the Aim of Environmental-Economic Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Subject Areas : Decision-making

Mostafa  Mardani ¹ (دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خوزستان)
Saman  Ziaei ² (Assistance Professor of agricultural economics University of Zabol)
Alireza  Nikouei ³ (Assistance Professor of agricultural economics Research Center for Agriculture and Natural Resources)

Received: 2016-05-04 Accepted : 2018-06-18 Published : 2018-09-01

Keywords: Uncertainty, Multi-objective programming, Sustainability, Optimal cropping pattern,

Abstract :

Sustainability in agricultural is determined by aspects like economy, society and environment. Multi-objective programming (MOP) model has been a widely used tool for studying and analyzing the sustainability of agricultural system. However, optimization models in most applications are forced to use data which is uncertain. Recently, robust optimization has been used as an optimization model that incorporates uncertainty. This paper develops a framework for environmental-economic decision making that includes the environmental and economic sustainability criteria for determining an optimal allocation of agricultural areas that cover an irrigation network under uncertain data. The primary uncertain parameter of the robust model was quantity of available water for each season. Application of the proposed model to the case study of the right side of Nekooabad irrigation network in the province of Isfahan, Iran, demonstrates the reliability and flexibility of the model. The results show that that the optimal total gross margin decreases with higher robustness levels. To compensate loss of gross margin of farmers in the robust pattern, efficiency enhancement policies emphasized.

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