بررسی عوامل مؤثر در رشد شهری با استفاده از مدل F’ANP (مطالعه موردی: شهر بجنورد)
محورهای موضوعی : شهرسازی
هاله حسین پور
1
(دانش آموخته دکتری شهرسازی، گروه شهرسازی، دانشکده هنر و معماری، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.)
اسفندیار زبردست
2
(استاد دانشکده شهرسازی، پردیس هنرهای زیبا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.)
حمید ماجدی
3
(استاد، دانشکده هنرو معماری، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.)
کلید واژه: مدلسازی رشد شهری, مدل F&rsquo, ANP, رشد شهری, عوامل موثر بر رشد شهری, شهر بجنورد,
چکیده مقاله :
وقوع رشد شهری و پیامدهایش بسیار گسترده است، در این راستا، با مروری بر مفاهیم نظری، مولفه های موثر بر رشد شهری تدوین شد، تا به عنوان چارچوب مناسب برای بررسی عوامل موثر بر رشد شهر بجنورد مورد استفاده قرار گیرد. سپس به کمکGIS و توابع مربوطه لایه های قابل سنجش به صورت کمی ارزش گذاری شد. که می توان ازمهمترین این عوامل، تراکم جمعیت، تراکم راهها و ... اشاره داشت. در ادامه از میان روش های مختلف، با توجه به اینکه روش F’ANP به دلیل استفاده از قابلیت های تحلیل عاملی در تبدیل موضوع به ابعاد مشخص و معین کردن رابطه بین ابعاد و شاخص ها، کلیه قابلیت های روش تحلیل عاملی را حفظ می نماید. نتایج بررسی نشان داد که تمایل به خانه های تک خانواری و زمین بزرگ مقیاس، تراکم راهها، تراکم خالص جمعیت و ... به ترتیب مهمترین عوامل موثر در رشد شهر بجنورد بوده اند.
When cities grow rapidly due to various factors such as changing economic, political, or social roles, they undergo many changes in their spatial structure. This phenomenon, especially in recent decades because of the uncontrolled growth of urban population and increasing migration to cities, is more visible in the cities of Iran compared with the past. In this process, cities are affected by multifaceted factors of urban growth, and in a short time, natural areas become urban lands. Meanwhile, some factors have a greater impact on the shape and extent of these changesincluding, population growth rate, urban road network, land usage change, government policies, and market trends. The occurrence of urban growth and its consequences have wide dimensions.The increase of medium and large cities and the spatial impact of urban growth on the surrounding lands are some of the important issues in the analysis of current urban issues. There is not any attention to the unplanned growth of these cities on the near horizon, which will lead to the transformation of medium-sized cities into large cities. Therefore, studying urban growth and explaining the factors, affecting help to identify and understand the process of urban development and test existing urban theories. The purpose of this article is to identify these factors and assessing the amount of impact of each of them in the process of urban growth by consideringBojnoord samples that had significant growth in recent years. In this regard, by reviewing the theoretical concepts related to urban growth, the factors affecting urban developmentwere codified, so asto be used as a framework for the analysis of the factors influencing the growth of Bojnoord.Then quantitatively is ratedwith the help of GIS and measurable relevant functions layers. Some of the most important factors are; population density, road density, number of amenities, distance from the town center, the development of single-family homes, faults, slope, etc. Then, from among the various methods of measurement, and quantitative assessment F’ANP keeps all the capabilities of factor analysis because F’ANPmanages to use the capability of factor analysis in converting subjects to specified dimensions and determining the relationship between indicators. Since the relationship between these extracted dimensions is objective, no problems arising from subjective judgments, and there is no effect on the results of research. The results showed that the most important factors in the growth of Bojnoord City were; tendency to single-family homes and large-scale land, the distance from the city center, the net density of the population, accordance with the desire of the city, commercial density, number of amenities, roads and population density respectively. Therefore, "density factor" indicators can be considered as the most important factors in the growth of Bojnourd city. On the other hand, the spatial study of these factors in the map of Bojnourd shows that the greatest concentration of these factors has been in the northwest (towards Golestan) and northeast of the city (towards Mashhad) in Bojnourd, which ultimately leads to the spatial form of the continuous expansion of Bojnourd.
زبردست، اسفندیار. (1389). کاربرد فرایند تحلیل شبکه‌ای (ANP) در برنامه‌ریزی شهری و منطقه‌ای. هنرهای زیبا، 41، 79-90.
زبردست، اسفندیار.(1393).کاربرد مدل (F’ANP) در شهرسازی. هنرهای زیبا-معماری و شهرسازی، 2(19)، 23-38.
مرکز آمار ایران(1385). سرشماری عمومی نفوس و مسکن.
مرکز آمار ایران(1390). سرشماری عمومی نفوس و مسکن.
ماجدی، حمید؛ زیردست، اسفندیار؛و مجربی کرمانی، بهاره.(1391).تحلیل عوامل مؤثر بر الگوی رشد کالبدی شهرهای بزرگ(نمونه موردی: شهر رشت).هنرهای زیبا- معماری و شهرسازی.17(3)، 49-60.
مهندسین مشاور فجر توسعه.(1386). طرح بلندمرتبه‌سازی شهر بجنورد. وزارت راه و شهرسازی.
Acioly, C.,& Davidson, F. (1996).Density in urban development. Building Issues. 8(3), 3–25.
Afandiyev, V., & Zakir, E.,& Nagiyev,S.(2014).Economic and Geographic Factors Affecting The Development Of Greater BAKU. Journal of Urban and Regional Analysis, 2, 203 – 218.
Angel, S., Sheppard, S., Civco, D. L., Buckley, R., Chabaeva, A., Gitlin, L., ... & Perlin, M. (2005). The dynamics of global urban expansion (p. 205). Washington, DC: World Bank, Transport and Urban Development Department.
Barnes, K. B., Morgan III, J. M., Roberge, M. C., & Lowe, S. (2001). Sprawl development: its patterns, consequences, and measurement. Towson University, Towson.
Bhatta, B. (2010).Analysis of Urban Growth and Sprawl from Remote Sensing Data. Springer.
Boyce, R.R. (1963). Myth versus reality in urban planning. Land Economics, 39(3), 241–251.
Cheng, J.,& Masser, I.(2004).Understanding spatial and temporal processes of urban, growth: cellular automata modelling.Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 31, 167 – 194.
Chin, N.(2002).Unearthing the Roots of Urban Sprawl; A Critical Analysis of Form, Function and Methodology, Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, University College London, London.
Clark, D. (1982). Urban Geography: An Introductory Guide. London:Taylor & Francis.
Duranton, G.,& Diego, P. (2014). The growth of cities. In Philippe Aghion and Steven N. Durlauf (eds.) Handbook of Economic Growth, volume 2B. Amsterdam: North-Holland.
.Ewing R.H. (2008) Characteristics, Causes, and Effects of Sprawl: A Literature Review. In: Marzluff J.M. et al. (eds) Urban Ecology. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-73412-5_34
Galster, J., Hanson, R., Ratcliffe, M., Wolman, H., Coleman, S.,& Freihage, J. (2001).Wrestling sprawl to the ground: Defining and measuring an elusive concept.Housing policy debate, 12, 4, 15-28.
Geshkov, M. V.(2010).The effect of land-use controls on urban sprawl, Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Graduate School, University of South Florida.
Harvey, R.O.,& Clark, W.A.V. (1965).The nature and economics of urban sprawl. Land Economics, 41(1), 1–9.
Hasse, J.(2002).Is It Sprawl Or Smart Growth? A Dozen Geospatial Indices Of Urban Sprawl, Department of Geography Rowan University.
Olajoke, Abolade. (2007). The Pattern Direction and Factors Responsible for Urban Growth in a Developing African City: A Case Study of Ogbomoso. J. Hum. Ecol, 22(3), 221-226 .
Poelmans, L., &VanRompaey, A. ( 2010).Complexityand performance of urban expansion models. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 34 (1), 17-27.
Verburg ,P. H., Ritsema Van Eck, J., R.,de Nijs, T. C. M of land-use change patterns in the Netherlands.., Dijst, M. J., &Schot, P.( 2004). Determinants Environment and Planning,Planning and Design, 31(1), 125 – 150.
Zebardast, E. (2013). Constructing a social vulnerability index to earthquake hazards using a hybrid factor analysis and analytic network process (F’ANP) model. Natural hazards, 65(3), 1331-1359.
_||_