تاب آوری شهری در شرایط بحران و برنامه ریزی کاهش گسست های فضایی در مناطق با ریسک بالا" نمونه موردی : مناطق 2و12 تهران
محورهای موضوعی : کالبدیالهه بیگدلی 1 , کریم حسین زاده دلیر 2 , بختیار عزت پناه 3
1 - دانشجوی دکتری تخصصی رشته شهرسازی، واحد مرند ، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی ، مرند، ایران.
2 - استاد گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، واحد مرند ، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی ، مرند، ایران.
3 - استادیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، واحد مرند، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مرند، ایران
کلید واژه: تاب‌آوری شهری, مناطق ۲ و ۱۲ شهر تهران, بحران, گسست فضایی, ابعاد کالبدی ـ فضایی,
چکیده مقاله :
در دهه‌های اخیر رویکردهای برنامه‌ریزی و مدیریت در مقابل انواع مخاطرات و بحران‌های طبیعی و انسانی به نحو بارزی از کاهش آسیب‌پذیری به سمت ایجاد و ارتقای تاب‌آوری تغییر یافته است. در این پژوهش ابعاد و عوامل اجتماعی، کالبدی و فضایی مؤثر بر تاب‌آوری بافت‌های شهری در شرایط بحران در سطح منطقه 2 و 12 به عنوان مناطق با ریسک بالا بررسی می‌شود. پژوهش حاضر از نظر هدف کاربردی و در زمرة تحقیقات کاربردی است که رویکرد کیفی انجام گرفته است. به منظور تحلیل ابعاد تاب‌آوری، ابتدا به بررسی و تجزیه و تحلیل 33 شاخص مطالعاتی مستخرج از مبانی نظری مبتنی بر پرسشنامه محقق‌ساخته و با استفاده از تکنیک دلفی و روش پیمایش پرداخته شد. متغیرهای این پژوهش شامل 3 بعد تاب‌آوری کالبدی، فضایی و اجتماعی است.. برای تجزیه و تحلیل داده‌ها در بخش توصیفی تحلیل‌های آماری از قبیل فراوانی، درصدها، حداکثر و حداقل، میانگین و انحراف معیار استفاده گردیده است. در بخش استنباطی، با کمک تحلیل‌های آماری مورد نیاز از آزمون T-Test تک‌نمونه‌ای و فریدمن استفاده شد. به طوریکه در بین ابعاد 3گانه تاب‌آوری، بعد کالبدی ـ فضایی (با 74.19 درصد فاصله از حد بهینه) و سپس بعد اجتماعی (با 68.52 درصد فاصله از حد بهینه) در وضعیت مناسبی دارد. نتایج حاصل از تجزیه و تحلیل منطقه ۱۲ نشان می‌دهد که بالاترین سطح بعد فضایی (با میانگین 10.97)، بعد اجتماعی (با میانگین 8.84) بوده است؛ همچنین در تحلیل ابعاد 3گانه، بعد اجتماعی در خوشه محرک، بعد فضایی در خوشه پیوندی و بعد کالبدی در خوشه وابسته قرار گرفته اند.
Introduction: Considering the results of research and acknowledging that Iran is one of the ten most catastrophic countries in the world due to its geographical location and geology, there are always human and financial losses due to disasters such as floods, earthquakes, droughts, storms, etc. Attention has been paid to the country, which has caused the cities and villages of Iran to be highly vulnerable. From this perspective, Tehran is considered as one of the metropolises with a very high degree of vulnerability in terms of natural disasters due to its vulnerability in various dimensions. Areas 2 and 12 of Tehran are two new and old areas with scattered and compact textures and a range of high to low risk of environmental crises. These areas are located in the old part of Tehran and its surroundings with some differences, and in general, the risk of vulnerability in these areas is very different. District 12 is the commercial heart, the center of the body and historical context of Tehran and in a word, its birthplace. The existing ossification of its texture is more or less in line with the historical ossification of the central part of the city. Due to the establishment of many parts of services and political institutions (urban and extra-urban scale) as well as the allocation of large areas of land in this area for extra-regional use and higher levels, it can be considered as the center of gravity of Tehran. On the other hand, the aristocracy of Region 2 over the territory and a significant part of Tehran, the existence of areas or settlements with homogeneous characteristics and dominant elements such as Milad Tower, intensify its characteristics for the centrality of the region. Therefore, it is important to explain the relationship between resilience and threats and reduce its effects, given the consequences and the emphasis that this analysis has on the resilience dimension. In fact, the purpose of this approach is to reduce vulnerability and strengthen the ability of local citizens to deal with the dangers posed by threats such as natural disasters.
Methodology:The present research is methodologically descriptive-analytical in terms of applied purpose. The time and place of these areas are 2 and 12 of Tehran metropolis, which was done in the summer of 1400. The statistical population of the study is the experts in the field of resilience in the field of executive and research, from which 73 people were selected as a sample and questioned. All data related to the research design have been collected in the form of documents and field. In order to review the theoretical foundations and related views, the latest available sources have been used and after compiling the relevant questionnaire and conducting the pre-test, the questionnaire has been completed and the survey has been completed. The mentioned questionnaire is of researcher-made type and has a Likert scale in 5 scales from very high to very low and its completion has been done by field studies and postal questionnaire. The variables of this study included two dimensions of resilience (physical-spatial and social) along with its indicators. Confirmation and determination of the studied indicators in this study based on theoretical principles and validity of its validity according to the importance of each to the study area, was confirmed by 11 experts. To determine the reliability of resilience dimensions, Cronbach's alpha coefficient of 0.87 was used, which indicates the high reliability of the questions. Statistical analyzes such as frequency, percentages, maximum and minimum, mean and standard deviation have been used to analyze the data in the descriptive part. In the inferential section, one-sample t-test and Friedman test were used with the help of required statistical analysis.
Results and discussion:The results of the evaluation of physical, spatial and social dimensions and the status of urban resilience in the 12th metropolitan area of Tehran show that the frequency percentage of physical-spatial dimension is 34.25% moderate, 36.99% low and 28.77% very low. Therefore, according to the final score of the physical-spatial dimension level, according to all its indicators and criteria, it is average and less and has a tendency towards low spectrum. The prevalence of social dimension is 9.59% very high, 32.88% high, 34.25% medium, 19.18% low and 4.11% very low. Therefore, according to the final score, the level of social dimension is moderate according to all its components and criteria and tends to the average spectrum. Also, the evaluation score of urban resilience was 5.48% high, 21.92% medium, 43.84% low and 28.77% very low. Therefore, according to the final score, it was found that the level of urban resilience variable in the 12th metropolitan area of Tehran, considering all its dimensions, components and indicators, is low and its tendency towards the spectrum is very low. Evaluation of the results of Zone 2 shows that the frequency percentage of the physical-spatial dimension is 16.44% very high, 39.73% high, 34.25% moderate, 8.22% low and 1.37% very low. Therefore, according to the final score of the physical-spatial dimension, it is high according to all its indicators and criteria and has a very high tendency towards the spectrum. The frequency percentage of social dimension is 15.07% very high, 42.47% high, 28.77% medium, 10.96% low and 2.74% very low. Therefore, according to the final score, the level of social dimension is high according to all its components and indicators and tends to be very high. Also, the evaluation score of urban resilience was 38.36% high, 32.88% medium, 16.44% low and 12.33% very low. Therefore, according to the final score, it was found that the level of urban resilience variable in District 2 of Tehran metropolis with all its dimensions, components and indicators is high and its tendency towards the spectrum is very high.
Conclusion:Spatial distribution of resilience status and the possibility of crisis occurring between the 2nd and 12th districts of Tehran and also at the level of neighborhoods are not uniform. In this regard, the study and evaluation of the evaluated criteria show that among the 33 evaluated indicators, in total, the indicators of structure type, building quality, building life (year), population density (people per hectare), land use mixing index, location of uses and activities, Social capital, social vulnerability and socio-economic status have been more important. According to the final score of the physical-spatial dimension level, according to all its indicators and criteria, it is average and less and has a tendency towards low spectrum. According to the final score of the level of social dimension in region 12, all its components and criteria are moderate and tend to the middle spectrum, and the general index of urban resilience tends to the spectrum is very low. Evaluation of the results of Zone 2 shows that the level of physical-spatial dimension is high according to all its indicators and criteria and tends to the spectrum is very high. According to the final score, the level of social dimension is high according to all its components and indicators and tends to be very high. Therefore, according to the final score, it was found that the level of urban resilience variable in Tehran metropolitan area 2 is high due to all its dimensions, components and indicators and its tendency is very high. Assessing the average indicators of urban resilience in crisis and based on the 5-level Likert scale (very high, high, medium, low and very low), shows that the average physical-spatial dimension of region 12, between 9 to 31, is 47.39 and has a level (moderate).
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