تحلیل متغیرهای اثرگذار بر رویارویی ژئوپلیتیک چین و ایالات متحده در دریای جنوبی چین
محورهای موضوعی : کالبدیمحمدرضا سیدآبادی 1 , یداله کریمی پور 2 , حسین ربیعی 3 , بهزاد شاهنده 4
1 - دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران
2 - استاد جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران
3 - دانشیار گروه جغرافیای سیاسی دانشگاه خوارزمی
4 - استاد روابط بین الملل، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
کلید واژه: ایالات متحده آمریکا, واژگان کلیدی: هماوردی, دریای جنوبی چین, ژئوپلیتیک,
چکیده مقاله :
چکیده شکست ایالات متحده در جنگ ویتنام و سقوط اتحاد شوروی، چین را در موقعیت مناسبی برای بسط قدرت خود در آسیای شرقی قرار داد. در دوره ای کوتاه، پکن به قدرتی جهانی تبدیل شده و حوزه نفوذ ژئواستراتژیک سومی را در رقابت با دو جهان قاره ای و دریایی شکل داد. همچنین رشد اقتصادی شتابان چین در دهه‌های اخیر، بستر مناسبی را برای تقویت توان نظامی این کشور و اقدامات توسعه طلبانه آن فراهم آورده است. افزایش قدرت چین و خیزش این کشور، مترصد لحظه ای برای زور آزمایی و تغییر موازنه است و پیامدهای خیزش سریع چین در 40 سال گذشته، ناگزیر منجر به چالش با قدرتهای بزرگ غالب به ویژه ایالات متحده شده است. این پژوهش در پی آن است تا به این سوال پاسخ گوید که تحولات ژئوپلیتیک دریای چین جنوبی در سده ی 21، متاثر از چه متغیرهایی است؟ این مقاله، ایده استراتژی بزرگ چین در دریای جنوبی چین را به چالش می کشد و تاکید می کند که کشور چین، یک بازیگر واحد نیست بلکه امروز در این کشور، جناح ها و نهادهای مختلف سیاسی به رقابت برای نفوذ بر سیاست خارجی می پردازند.
Introduction: The defeat of the United States in the Vietnam War and the fall of the Soviet Union put China in a good position to expand its power in East Asia. In a short period of time, Beijing became a world power and formed a third geostrategic sphere of influence in competition with the continental and maritime worlds. Also, China's rapid economic growth in recent decades has provided a good platform for strengthening its military might and expansionist measures. China's rise to power and uprising is a moment in time to test its strength and balance, and the aftermath of China's rapid rise over the past 40 years has inevitably led to a challenge to the dominant powers, especially the United States. This study seeks to answer the question of what variables are affected by the geopolitical developments of the South China Sea in the 21st century? Conflicts such as disputes over the South China Sea islands, ownership of hydrocarbon reserves, limitation of navigation operations, use of geoeconomic levers, etc. have been studied in this study. Explored by the United States against China, as well as the challenges of implementing it, and the indications for using this strategy in a variety of policies, including: return to Asia policies, increasing the implementation of naval freedom operations. In the South China Sea, support for the TPP trade agreement, participation in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), strengthening of ASEAN against China, etc. have also been challenged. He emphasizes that China is not a single player, but today in this country, different factions and political institutions are competing to influence foreign policy.
Methodology:This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of nature and method. The data needed to argue and answer research questions have been collected from library sources. In the analysis of research findings, qualitative analysis method was used and the final conclusion of the research was based on qualitative analysis.
Results and discussion:While the US containment strategy with challenges such as slowing militaristic approaches, deindustrialisation of the US economy and tax cuts, costless and fruitless interventions in the Middle East, extensive security commitments in NATO and other alliances Defense and, ultimately, massive national debt, some of which are financed by China, are largely vulnerable to external economic pressures, but on the other hand, the Pacific West consists of a series of consecutive islands in They are located at different distances from the coasts of Asia. As shown in the figure, this chain of islands is under the tutelage of the Western Allies (US, France, UK, New Zealand, Australia and Japan) and the United States has almost absolute sovereignty.
In addition, the Pacific West, as the main battlefield between the United States and Japan in World War II, has a geography in which the United States and Japan have key locations and a long history of naval warfare. The strong alliance between the United States and Japan, along with the partnership of Australia and India, provides significant long-term barriers to preventing Chinese forces from expanding into the Pacific or Indian Ocean. Finally, the Chinese navy has no experience in modern oceanic wars, has no historical presence in the region that it can use to establish a hegemony and as a powerful country, and the communist regime in China can defeat any Stimulate the emotions associated with China's century of humiliation and be completely vulnerable.
Conclusion:Overall, Asia seems to have become a priority in US foreign policy, policy and ideology. US concern in the South China Sea is not simply a fear of the potential for escalation of military conflict in the region or even a commitment to its allies; Rather, US involvement in the dispute is an attempt to contain China's rise, which threatens US hegemony in the region and the world.
In China today, various political factions and institutions are competing to influence foreign policy. On the one hand, the impetus for the realization of territorial claims and national unity, and on the other hand, the demands of the global economy, on which export-based economic growth largely depends, compete with each other. Since the foreign policy interests of countries and their willingness to pursue the security power project are influenced by domestic political institutions and their economic interests, it was suggested that the Chinese government should not be integrated; But to be seen as pluralistic, decentralized and international; So it would be misleading to assume that there is a single Chinese logic and reaction to international affairs. Nowhere is it as clear as the South China Sea, where various national and sub-national government departments operate without coordination, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs does not clearly control China's policy towards the South China Sea. Their study provides valuable insights into the impact of small foundations on shaping the motivation of leading expansionist actors in the South China Sea, and challenges any simple description of a large coherent strategy of Chinese policy in the SCS
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