عوامل تاثیرگذار اقتصادی و نهادی بر رشد اقتصادی با تاکید بر ابزارهای تامین مالی اسلامی
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه اقتصاد محاسباتی
حسین ساوهءشمشکی
1
,
محمد دالمن پور
2
*
,
اشکان رحیم زاده
3
,
تیمور محمدی
4
1 - گروه آموزشی مدیریت و اقتصاد، واحد زنجان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، زنجان، ایران.
2 - گروه مدیریت و اقتصاد، واحد زنجان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، زنجان، ایران.
3 - استادیار ، دانشکده اقتصاد ، دانشگاه آزاد زنجان
4 - گروه اقتصاد نظری، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران
کلید واژه: روش حداقل مربعات وزنی برآوردی (EGLS), رشد اقتصادی, ابزارهای تامین مالی اسلامی, شاخص کیفیت حکمرانی,
چکیده مقاله :
یکی از موضوعات مهم در تحقیقات اقتصادی، شناسایی متغیرهای تأثیرگذار بر رشد اقتصادی است. در اقتصاد اسلامی، ابزارهای تأمین مالی اسلامی (صکوک) به عنوان یکی از مؤلفه‌های کلیدی شناخته می‌شوند که اقتصاد اسلامی را از سایر نظام‌های اقتصادی متمایز می‌کند. پرسش اصلی این است که آیا این ابزارها همواره تأثیر مثبت بر رشد اقتصادی دارند و نقش عوامل نهادی در این میان چیست؟ این مقاله به بررسی این پرسش می‌پردازد که دو عامل اصلی یعنی ابزارهای تأمین مالی اسلامی و شاخص‌های نهادی چه تأثیری بر رشد اقتصادی ایران دارند. برای این منظور، داده‌های اقتصادی شامل سرمایه و نیروی کار از بانک جهانی و اطلاعات مربوط به انتشار صکوک از سایت (www.sukuk.ir) جمع‌آوری شده است. در این پژوهش از مدل حداقل مربعات وزنی (EGLS) برای برآورد داده‌ها استفاده شده است. همچنین، شاخص‌های حکمرانی به عنوان نماینده عوامل نهادی در نظر گرفته شده‌اند. نتایج این پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که انتشار ابزارهای تأمین مالی اسلامی، بهبود شاخص‌های حکمرانی، تشکیل سرمایه ثابت ناخالص و افزایش نیروی کار، اثرات مثبت و معناداری بر رشد اقتصادی ایران داشته‌اند.
Abstract
One of the important issues in economic research is identifying the variables that affect economic growth. In Islamic economics, Islamic financial instruments (Sukuk) are recognized as one of the key components that distinguish Islamic economics from other economic systems. The main question is whether these instruments always have a positive effect on economic growth and what is the role of institutional factors in this? This article examines the question of what effect two main factors, namely Islamic financial instruments and institutional indicators, have on Iran's economic growth. For this purpose, economic data including capital and labor have been collected from the World Bank and information related to the issuance of Sukuk from the website (www.sukuk.ir). In this study, the weighted least squares (EGLS) model has been used to estimate the data. Also, governance indicators have been considered as representatives of institutional factors. The results of this study show that the issuance of Islamic financial instruments, improving governance indicators, gross fixed capital formation, and increasing the labor force have had positive and significant effects on Iran's economic growth.
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of institutional factors and the efficiency of economic variables, including Islamic financial instruments, on economic growth. Focusing on improving governance indicators and the efficiency of these instruments is of particular importance in all Islamic developing countries, especially Iran. The effectiveness of Islamic financial instruments will be maximized when attention is paid to improving governance indicators and other institutional factors. Therefore, a comprehensive study of the impact of these factors on economic growth with an emphasis on strengthening and efficiency of Islamic financial instruments is an important goal.
Methodology
According to the aforementioned studies and the literature, the estimated generalized least squares (EGLS) econometric method was used to examine the impact of economic factors including labor, capital, Islamic financing instruments, and institutional factors (governance indicators) on Iran's economic growth. In this regard, the arithmetic mean of six governance indicators published by the World Bank, including corruption control, government effectiveness, political stability and absence of violence, legislative quality, legal credibility, and criticism and accountability, was calculated and entered as a representative of institutional factors in the main research model. In the main model, GDP is the gross domestic product as the dependent variable, SUKUK is the amount of sukuk issued in the country each year as the independent variable, LF is the country's active labor force as the independent variable, GOV is the governance quality index as a representative of institutional factors as the independent variable, and GFCF is the gross fixed capital formation as the independent variable. The main model is logarithmic. The source of sukuk data is from WWW.SUKUK.IR and other data is the World Bank. The main model has been estimated for the period between (2010) and (2023) based on the available data for the Sukuk issuance index.
Finding
The findings of the model estimation shows that at a significance level of 95% and based on the data used in this study, the variables of labor force, gross fixed capital formation, governance quality and issued sukuk have a positive effect on economic growth.
Also, according to the results of the model estimation, the explanatory variables were able to explain 72% of the changes in the dependent variable, which indicates an acceptable explanatory power.
Given that the logarithm was taken from both sides of the model, the results indicate that, assuming that other conditions are constant and in the sample under study, for every one percent increase in sukuk issuance, GDP will increase by 46 thousandths of a percent. In addition, for every one percent improvement in the governance quality index, GDP will increase by 57 thousandths of a percent. Also, the sensitivity of GDP to labor force is 76 hundredths of a percent, and for every one percent increase in gross fixed capital formation, GDP will increase by 85 hundredths of a percent.
Conclusion
The output results of the estimated model showed that labor, capital, issued sukuk, and governance indicators all have a positive and significant effect on economic growth in Iran during the study period. It should be noted that labor and capital, according to the prevailing macroeconomic theories, are among the main factors affecting production and economic growth, which were statistically and empirically confirmed in the estimated model of this study.
In order to strengthen investment and improve financing methods, strengthening the issuance of Islamic financing instruments, especially sukuk, is the main recommendation of this study. Empirical and statistical findings show that increasing the issuance of sukuk plays an effective role in strengthening economic growth. Therefore, the recommendation of this study is to increase the issuance and diversification of Islamic financing instruments in order to provide the necessary conditions for sustainable economic growth.
Another basic recommendation of this study is to improve governance indicators. Improving these indicators, as a proxy for institutional factors, can have a significant impact on economic growth by protecting property rights, speeding up business processes, increasing predictability, increasing the credibility and authority of laws, and promoting political and economic stability. These measures not only increase the productivity of existing capital, but also attract new national and international capital. Therefore, both capital productivity and the amount of capital stock will increase, and as a result, economic growth will be strengthened. Therefore, one of the important recommendations of this study is to try to improve governance indicators. According to the results of this research and previous studies, it was found that if institutional quality is not improved and appropriate governance indicators are lacking in countries, the positive effect of Islamic financing instruments on economic growth will be challenged and disrupted, and this positive effect may not be realized.
- Acemoglu, D. and Robinson, J. A. (2012). Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty. New York: Crown Business.
- Acemoglu, Daron and Robinson, J. A. (2008). The Role of Institutions in Growth and Development. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, The World Bank, Working Paper, No,10.
- Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S. and Robinson, J. A. (2000). The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development. American Economic Review, 91(5), 1369-1401. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.91.5.369/
- Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S. and Robinson, J. A. (2005). Institutions as the Fundamental Cause of Long-Run Growth. In Philippe Aghion and Steve Durlauf, eds, Handbook of Economic Growth.
- Arooj,N.S. and Gulzar,S.(2020). Impact of Islamic Finance on Economic
Growth: An Empirical Analysis of Muslim Countries. The Singapore
Economic Review,67(01), 245-265.
Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1142/S0217590819420062/
- Asghar, N., Qureshi, D. S. and Nadeem, M. (2020). Institutional quality and economic growth: Panel ARDL analysis for selected developing economies of Asia. South Asian Studies, Journal of South Asia Studies,30(2), 381-404.
- Echchabi, A., Aziz, H. A. and Idriss, U. (2018). The impact of Sukuk financing on economic growth: the case of GCC countries. International Journal of Financial Services Management, 9(1), 60-69. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1504/IJFSM.2018.089920/
- Emara, N. and El Said, A. (2021). Financial inclusion and economic growth: The role of governance in selected MENA countries. International Review of Economics & Finance, 75, 34-54.
Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2021.03.014
- Emara, N. and Chiu, I-Ming. (2016). The Impact of Government on Economic Growth: The Case of Middle east and North African Countries. Topics in Middle eastern and African Economics,18(1), 126-144.
- Evsey D. D. (1947). Epantion and Employment. American Economic Review, 37(1), 34-55. Retrieved from https: //www.jstor.org/stable/1802857/
- Fazeli, H., Najafpour, A. and Poureasmayil, M. (2018). The Impact of Islamic Finance on the Market of Selected Middle Eastern Countries. Islamic Economics Research Quarterly, 18(70), 187-203. (In Persian)
- Gharavi, S. F., Naghilou, A. and Rahimzadeh, A. (2023). The Effects of Islamic Bonds (Sukuk) on Economic Growth Based on a Stochastic Dynamic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Model. Financial Economics Journal, 17(2), 273-312.
Retrieved from https://doi.org/fed.2023.70219410.30495/(In Persian)
- Hassanzadeh, H., Qezelbash, M., Rostamipour, A. and Ghavam, M. H. (2021). Diagnosis of Banking Sukuk and Providing Solutions for Competitive Sukuk Market in Mobilizing Resources of Iran’s Banking System. Islamic Economics Research Quarterly, 21(81), 157-189. (In Persian)
-Jafari Samimi, A., Yahyazadeh Far, M. and Najafpour, A. (2016). The impact of Islamic finance on economic growth in selected countries. International Conference on Management and Economics in the 21st Century. Retrieved from https://sid.ir/paper/832938/fa/(In Persian)
- Khavarinezhad, S., Biancone, P. and Jafari-Sadeghi, V. (2021). Financing in the Islamic System and Sustainable Economic Development of Selected Islamic Countries. European Journal of Islamic Finance, (19), 18-23. Retrieved from https:// doi.org/10.13135/2421-2172/6158/
- Ledhem, M.A. and Mekidiche, M. (2021). Islamic finance and economic growth nexus: empirical evidence from Southeast Asia using dynamic panel one-step system GMM analysis. Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, 12(8), 1165-1180.
Retrieved from https:// doi.org/ 10.1108/JIABR-03-2021-0107/
- Ledhem, M.A. and Mekidiche, M. (2021). Islamic securities (Sukuk) and economic growth: New empirical investigation from Southeast Asia using non-parametric analysis of MCMC panel quantile regression. Islamic Economic Studies,29(2),119-138.
Retrieved from https:// doi.org/ 10.1108/IES-06-2021-0020/
- Mohammadi, J., Ghasemzadeh Khosroshahi, A. and Khalili Aragi, M. (2022). The Impact of International Sukuk on Economic Growth of GCC Countries: Lessons for Iran's Economy. Islamic Economics Research Quarterly,22(87), 187-159. (In Persian)
- Naemi, M., sohaili, K. and Karimi, M. S. (2019). Interaction Relationship Between Development of Islamic Financial Instruments (Sukuk) and Economic Growth. Islamic Economics, 19(73), 217-238. (In Persian)
- Ramsey, F. P. (1928). A Mathematical Theory of Saving. The Economic Journal , 38 (152), 543–559.
- Ridlo, M., Muthohar, A. M. and Masruhan, K. M. (2021). The impact of zakah, Islamic financing, sukuk and inflation on national economic growth with poverty as a moderation variable. Falah: Jurnal Ekonomi Syariah, 6(1), 17-29. Retrieved from https:// doi.org/10.22219/jes. v6i1.14993/
- Roy, H. (1939). An Essay in Dynamic Theory. Economic Journal ,49(193), 14-33. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/2225181/
- Shahiki Tash, M., Molayi, S. and Dinarzehi, Kh. (2014). Investigating the Relationship between Economic Growth and Social Welfare Index in Iran Based on Bayesian Approach. Economic Growth and Development Research Quarterly,4(16), 41-52.
Retrieved from http://dor.isc.ac/ 20.1001.1.22285954.1393.4.16.3.2/(In Persian)
- Shakeri, M., Jafari Samimi, A. and Karimi Moughari, Z. (2015). The Relationship between Institutional Variables and Economic Growth: Introducing a New Institutional Measure for Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Economic Growth and Development Research, 6(21), 106-93. (In Persian)
- Smaoui H. and S. Nechi, (2017). Does sukuk market development spur economic growth?. Research in International Business and Finance, 41(C), 136-147. Retrieved from https:// doi.org/ 10.1016/j.ribaf.2017.04.018/
- Smaoui, H., & Khawaja, M. (2017). The determinants of Sukuk market development. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 53(7), 1501-1518. Retrieved from https:// doi.org/ 10.1080/1540496X.2016.1224175/
- Sobhi, S., Sameti, M., Ghabadi, S. and Sameti, M. (2022). Analyzing the Impact of Institutional Variables on Iran’s Macroeconomic Structure (Focusing on Economic Freedom Index). Development and Capital, 7(1), 1-26 Retrieved from https:// doi.org/ 2021.1908749.2415.10.30495/ (In Persian)
- Solow, R. M. (1956). A contribution to the theory of economic growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70 (1), 65–94.
- Taskhiri, M. (2007). The Sharia Foundations of Islamic Securities (Sukuk). Islamic Economics Research Quarterly,7(27), 7-22. (In Persian)
- Tohidi, M. and Yarmohammadi, R. (2017). Analytical Review of the Islamic Securities (Sukuk) Market in Iran and the World. Tehran: Securities and Exchange Organization, Research, Development, and Islamic Studies Center, Markets and Financial Instruments Group. (In Persian)
- World Bank, (2003). Better Governance for Development in the Middle East and North Africa: Enhancing Inclusiveness and Accountability, http://www- wds.worldbank.org/servlet/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2003/11/06/000090341_20031106135835/Rendered/PDF/271460PAPER0Be1ance0for0development.pdf.
- Yildirim, S., Yildirim, D.C. and Diboglu, P. (2020). Does Sukuk market development promote economic growth?. PSU Research Review, 4(3), 209-218. Retrieved from https:// doi.org/10.1108/PRR-03-2020-0011/
- Yuliani, I., Qizam, I., Nugroho, A. and Mu'arrif, Z. I. (2022). The impact of Sukuk on the country’s economic growth with country governance as a moderating variable. Al-Uqud: Journal of Islamic Economics, 6(1), 112-123. Retrieved from https:// doi.org/ 10.26740/aluqud. v6n1/
- Zulkhibri, M. (2015). A synthesis of theoretical and empirical research on sukuk. Borsa Istanbul Review, 15(4), 237-248.