آثار شوک کسری بودجه و بدهی بخش عمومی و روش‌های تأمین مالی دولت بر مؤلفه‌های مصرف و ثروت شاخص رفاه اقتصادی
علیرضا فتحی
1
(
دانشکده اقتصاد و حسابداری، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی – واحد تهران جنوب
)
فاطمه زندی
2
(
دانشکده اقتصاد و حسابداری، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی – واحد تهران جنوب
)
بیژن صفوی
3
(
دانشکده اقتصاد و حسابداری، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی – واحد تهران جنوب
)
مهناز ربیعی
4
(
دانشکده اقتصاد و حسابداری، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی – واحد تهران جنوب
)
کلید واژه: کسری بودجه دولت, بدهی بخش عمومی, شاخص رفاه اقتصادی, مصرف, ثروت, ,
چکیده مقاله :
هدف از این پژوهش بررسی تأثیر شوک کسری بودجه، بدهی بخش عمومی و روش‌های تأمین مالی دولت بر شاخص رفاه اقتصادی (با تأکید بر مؤلفه‌های مصرف و ثروت) با استفاده از الگوی خود بازگشت برداری ساختاری و داده‌های سالانه در بازه زمانی 1401 - 1371 می‌باشد. نتایج حاکی از آن است که در بلندمدت کسری بودجه بر شاخص مصرف و ثروت تأثیر قابل توجهی ندارد، آثار بدهی بخش عمومی (بدهی دولت به سیستم بانکی کشور شامل استقراض از بانک مرکزی، بانکها و مؤسسات اعتباری) بر شاخص مصرف منفی بوده و بر شاخص ثروت مثبت می‌باشد. انتشار پول و افزایش نقدینگی بر شاخص مصرف و ثروت تأثیر منفی داشته و تأمین مالی دولت از طریق انتشار اوراق قرضه بر شاخص مصرف اثر مثبت و با شدت بیشتری بر شاخص ثروت با آثار مثبت همراه است. مالیات‌های مستقیم بر شاخص مصرف آثار مثبت و مالیات بر ثروت و دارایی نیز با شاخص ثروت رابطه عکس دارد. نتایج پژوهش دلالت بر آن دارد که کسری بودجه دولت به‌تنهایی تأثیری بر شاخص مصرف و ثروت ندارد، درحالیکه تبعات کسری بودجه و روش‌های تأمین مالی می‌تواند مصرف و ثروت را تحت‌الشعاع قرار دهد.
چکیده انگلیسی :
The purpose of this research is to investigate the impact of shock of budget deficit, public sector debt and government financing methods on the economic welfare index (with an emphasis on the consumption and wealth components) using the Structural Vector Autoregressive Model and annual data over a period of time from 1371 to 1401 S.H.. The results indicate that in the long term, the budget deficit has no effect on the consumption and wealth index, the effect of public sector debt (government debt to the country's banking system, including borrowing from the central bank, banks and credit institutions) on the consumption index is negative and on the wealth index is positive. The effect of money issuance and liquidity growth on the consumption and wealth index is negative, the effect of government financing through the issuance of bonds on the consumption index is positive and more strongly positive on the wealth index. Direct tax on the consumption index has positive effects and tax on wealth and property also has an inverse relationship with the wealth index. The results of the research indicate that the government budget deficit alone does not have an effect on the consumption and wealth index, while the consequences of the budget deficit and financing methods can overshadow consumption and wealth.
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