بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر تورم با تأکید بر اندازه دولت
محورهای موضوعی : اقتصاد کار و جمعیت
کلید واژه: تورم, اندازه دولت,
چکیده مقاله :
باوجود درک عمومی یکسان ازمفهوم تورم، در خصوص علل ایجاد کننده آن، بین اقتصاددانان هنوز اتفاق نظر وجود ندارد. در مقاله ی حاضر ارتباط بلند‌مدت بین تورم و عوامل مؤثر بر آن با تأکید بر اندازه دولت در اقتصاد ایران برای دوره زمانی 1353-1385 مورد آزمون قرار می‌گیرد. برای این منظور از روش هم‌انباشتگی خود توضیح برداری با وقفه گسترده برای تخمین مدل تحقیق استفاده شده است. نتایج حاصل از تخمین مدل نشان می‌دهد که شاخص قیمت کالاهای وارداتی، حجم نقدینگی، نرخ بهره حقیقی از متغیرهای اثر گذار بر نرخ تورم در اقتصاد ایران می‌باشند و رابطه منفی و معنی‌داری بین تورم و اندازه دولت در اقتصاد ایران وجود دارد . همچنین با توجه به نتیجه بدست آمده، دست یابی به نرخ تورم پایین‌تر از طریق اقدامات دولتی، افزایش هرچه بیشتر نقش‌های حمایتی و نظارتی دولت را می‌طلبد.
This paper is an effort to find an adaptable model to investigate about the presence or absence of significant relation between inflation and the size of government in Iran. To study the long-run relationship between inflation and the factors affecting it by emphasizing the size of government during 1974-2006, an auto regressive distributed lag model (ARDL) will be used.The findings indicate that the import price index, liquidity and real interest rate are effective factors on inflation in Iran and there is a negative but significant relationship between inflation and the size of government in Iranian economy. Based upon the results, the government protective and supervisional roles is necessary to control the inflation.
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