بررسی اثرات سیاست پولی بر تولید ناخالص داخلی از طریق کانال وام دهی سیستم بانکی در ایران
محورهای موضوعی : اقتصاد کار و جمعیت
کلید واژه: کانال اعتباری, کانال وام دهی, الگوی تصحیح خطای برداری (VEC), بدهی بانک‌ها به بانک مرکزی,
چکیده مقاله :
هدف این مقاله بررسی اثرات سیاست پولی بر تولید ناخالص داخلی و سطح عمومی قیمت‌هااز طریق کانال اعتباری (کانال وام دهی بانکی) در ایران طی دوره 2Q1387- 1Q1368 می‌باشد. بدین منظور با استفاده از الگوی تصحیح خطای برداری (VEC) اثرات سیاست پولی از طریق کانال وام دهی مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. به طور کلی نتایج حاکی از این است که افزایش حجم پول، به دلیل افزایش بدهی بانک‌ها به بانک مرکزی، تنها در کوتاه مدت سطح تولید را افزایش می‌دهد و حتی در بلند مدت اثر منفی بر آن دارد. ولی سطح عمومی قیمت‌ها را هم در کوتاه مدت و هم در بلند مدت افزایش می‌دهد. بنابراین استفاده از این ابزار سیاستی برای متاثر ساختن سطح تولید مناسب نمی‌باشد ولی می‌توان از آن به منظور سیاست‌های ضد تورمی کمک گرفت.
Authorities and economists always try to use suitable monetary and financial tools to achieve economical development. About monetary policies, usually, the central bank tries to use means like legal reserve rate, bands and high rate of discount affecting the cash to provide the development facilities. Monetary policies affect the production and inflation by different channels such as interest rate, exchange rate and the price of the other assent and credits that are the most important of these channels. The aim of this research is to consider the effect of the monetary policy on the production and inflation through bank credit channel (Loan Channel) during 1368-1387 in Iran. So the effect of monetary policy will be considered through bank loan channel by Vector Error Correction model (VEC). In general the results show that with increasing the amount of money by developing bank debts to the central bank, only the production level will be expanded in short-term and even it has negative effect on in long-term. But the general level of prices will be increased in short and long-term. So, the use of this policy tools affecting the level of the production is not suitable but it can help as an anti-inflationary policy.
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