بررسی تاثیر اقتصاد سایه بر آسیب پذیری اقتصادی

محورهای موضوعی : توسعه اقتصادی، نوآوری، نغییرات تکنولوژیکی و رشد اقتصادی

لوی عادل عبود ¹ , سید جمال الدین محسنی زنوزی ^{2 *} , یوسف محمدزاده ³

1 - دانشجوی دکتری علوم اقتصادی، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران. [e-mail]
2 - دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران (نویسنده مسئول). [e-mail]
3 - دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران. [e-mail]

تاریخ دریافت : 1403/10/16 تاریخ پذیرش : 1404/02/13 تاریخ انتشار : 1404/04/28

کلید واژه: اقتصاد سایه, آسیب پذری اقتصادی, رویکرد PSTR,

چکیده مقاله :

در دهه­های اخیر، آسیب­پذیری اقتصادی به ویژه برای کشورهای درحال­توسعه بدلیل پدیده جهانی شدن، تغییرات اقلیمی، رشد نابرابر، بدهی خارجی و بی­ثباتی­های داخلی و خارجی از اهمیت زیادی برخوردار بوده است. از این لحاظ بررسی عوامل موثر بر روی آسیب­پذیری اقتصادی در کشورهای درحال­توسعه مورد توجه ویژه قرار گرفته شده است. عامل کلیدی که کمتر در این خصوص مورد توجه قرار گرفته است، اندازه اقتصاد سایه و غیررسمی در این کشورهاست. در این مطالعه به بررسی تاثیر اندازه اقتصاد سایه بر روی آسیب­پذیری اقتصادی برای کشورهای نوظهور طی دوره  2007-2021 پرداخته شده است. برای بررسی اثرات غیرخطی متغیرها و تفاوت در برخورداری کشورهای مورد بررسی از منابع طبیعی از رویکرد PSTR استفاده شده است. نتایج نشان داد که اقتصاد سایه تاثیر مثبت و فزاینده بر روی آسیب­پذیری اقتصادی در کشورهای نوظهور داشته است. البته این اثرگذاری برای کشورهایی که از منابع غنی طبیعی برخوردار بوده­اند، کمتر بوده است. بنابرین محدودکردن اقتصاد غیررسمی و زیرزمینی یکی از سیاست­های موثر در جهت کاهش آسیب­پذیری اقتصادی توصیه می­شود. همچنین توسعه مالی و حکمرانی خوب تاثیر منفی بر روی آسیب­پذیری اقتصادی در کشورهای مورد بررسی داشته است. توسعه بازارهای مالی و بهبود عملکرد موسسات مالی و همچنین بهبود کارآمدی دولت­ها و کنترل فساد نیز از مهمترین سیاستهای کنترلی آسیب­پذیری اقتصادی در این مطالعه مورد تاکید قرار گرفته است.  

چکیده انگلیسی:

In recent decades, economic vulnerability has become a pressing concern for developing countries, driven by factors such as globalization and structural instability. Despite its significance, the role of the shadow economy in exacerbating this vulnerability has received limited attention. This study investigates the nonlinear impact of the shadow economy on economic vulnerability in emerging economies from 2007 to 2021, emphasizing the moderating effect of natural resource endowments. Utilizing the Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) method, which captures threshold-dependent dynamics, the analysis differentiates between resource-rich and resource-poor countries. The results indicate that the shadow economy significantly increases economic vulnerability, but this effect is less severe in countries with abundant natural resources. Additionally, the study finds that financial development and strong governance—particularly government efficiency and control of corruption—can mitigate vulnerability. Policy recommendations include reforming tax systems, improving monitoring of economic transactions, strengthening financial institutions, enhancing governance, and managing natural resources more effectively. By incorporating both the nonlinear effects of informality and the influence of natural resources, the study offers a nuanced framework for policymakers in emerging economies.

منابع و مأخذ:

- - اسدزاده، احمد و جلیلی، زهرا (1394). اقتصاد سایه و نابرابری درآمد در ایران. فصلنامه مدلسازی اقتصادی، 9(2)، 101-91.
- حسن مهیجر، جابر، حکمتی فرید، صمد، رضازاده، علی و محمدزاده، یوسف (1404). بررسی تأثیر اقتصاد سایه بر عملکرد بازار مالی و بخش بانکی کشورهای عضو BRICS (رویکرد Panel SUR). مدیریت دارایی و تامین مالی. 13(2)، 28-1. https://doi.org/10.22108/amf.2024.142315.1905
- خاندوزی، سیداحسان و میرنظامی، ابراهیم (1398). سنجش تاثیر پیچیدگی اقتصادی بر شاخص آسیب¬پذیری و تاب¬آوری. جستارهای اقتصادی، 16(32 )، 33-9. https://doi.org/10.30471/iee.2020.5502.1777
- شنیشل، ذرسعدون، محمدزاده، یوسف، بشیر خداپرستی، رامین و جهانگیری، شهاب (1403). بررسی تاثیر ریسک سیاسی بر اقتصاد سایه: رویکرد پانل کوانتایل. فصلنامه مدل‌سازی اقتصادی، 18(65)، 72-45. https://doi.org/10.71849/ECO.2024.1127783
- فراهتی، محبوبه (1399). مدل¬سازی اثرات جایگزینی مالیات¬ها بر اندازه اقتصاد سایه (کاربرد تجربی برای اقتصاد ایران). مدلسازی اقتصادی، 14(50)، 76-53. https://doi.org/10.30495/eco.2020.674217
- فربد، دانیال، فلاحی، محمدعلی و صالح¬نیا، نرگس (1400). بررسی تأثیر ریسکهای اقتصادی، مالی و سیاسی بر شاخص آسیب¬پذیری نفرین منابع در کشورهای منطقه منا. پژوهشنامه اقتصاد انرژی ایران، 11(11)، 161-131. https://doi.org/22054/jiee.2022.67575.1905
- Alvarado, R., Tillaguango, B., López-Sánchez, M., Ponce, P., & Isık, C. (2021). Heterogeneous impact of natural resources on income inequality: The role of the shadow economy and human capital index. Economic Analysis and Policy, 69, 690-704. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2021.01.015
- Angeon, V., & Bates, S. (2015). Reviewing composite vulnerability and resilience indexes: A sustainable approach and application. World Development, 72, 140-162. doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2015.02.011
- Asadzadeh, A., & Jalili, Z. (2015). Shadow economy and income inequality in Iran. Economic Modeling, 9(2), 30, 91-109. (in persian)
- Audu, S. I. (2020). National transparency and the performance of the financial market in Nigeria. International Journal of Business and Financce Management Research, 8(1), 10-14. doi.org/10.33500/ ijbfmr.2020.08.002
- Baker, C. (2009). The economic implications of the nformal economy: A guide to dumping and informal trade. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 23(1), 139-157.
- Berdiev, A. N., & Saunoris, J. W. (2016). Financial development and the shadow economy: A panel VAR analysis. Economic Modelling, 57, 197-207. doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.03.028
- Biswas, S., & Nautiyal, S. (2023). A review of socio-economic vulnerability: The emergence of its theoretical concepts, models and methodologies. Natural Hazards Research, 3(3), 563-571. doi.org/10.1016/j.nhres.2023.05.005
- Bhattacharyya, S., & Hodler, R. (2014). Do natural resource revenues hinder financial development? The role of political institutions. World Development, 57, 101-113. doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2013.12.003
- Briguglio, L., Cordina, G., Farrugia, N., & Vella, S. (2014). Economic vulnerability and resilience: concepts and measurements. In Measuring Vulnerability in Developing Countries, Routledge, 47-65. doi.org/10.1080/13600810903089893
- Buehn, A., & Schneider, F. (2012). Size and development of the shadow economies of 31 European and 21 other OECD countries from 2003 to 2013. Johannes Kepler University.
- Chaudhuri, S., & Mukhopadhyay, U. (2009). Revisiting the informal sector: a general equilibrium approach. Springer Science & Business Media.
- Çiçek, D., & Elgin, C. (2011). Cyclicality of fiscal policy and the shadow economy. Empirical Economics, 41, 725-737. doi.org/10.1007/s00181-010-0409-0
- Dada, J. T., Ajide, F. M., Arnaut, M., & Al-Faryan, M. A. S. (2024). On the contributing factors to shadow economy in Africa: Do natural resources, ethnicity and religious diversity make any difference? Resources Policy, 88, 104478. doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.104478
- Dell’Anno, R. (2016). Analysing the determinants of the shadow economy with a “separate approach”. Journal of Economic Studies, 43(3), 497-528. doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2015.08.026
- Elgin, C. (2020). The informal economy: Measures, causes, and consequences. Routledge Frontiers of Political Economy. 1st Edition.
- Elgin, C., & Oztunali, O. (2012). Shadow economies around the world: Model based estimates. Boğaziçi University Working Paper. Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
- Farahati, M. (2020). Modeling the effects of tax substitution on the size of the shadow economy (An empirical application for Iran's economy). Economic Modeling, 14(2), 53-76. doi.org/10.30495/eco.2020.674217 (in persian)
- Farbod, D., Falahi, M. A., & Salehnia, N. (2021). Investigating the impact of economic, financial, and political risks on the resource curse vulnerability index in MENA region countries. Iranian Energy Economics Research Journal, 11(11), 161-311. doi.org/22054/jiee.2022.67575.1905 (in persian)
- Fay, M., & Opal, C. (2000). Urbanization without growth: A not so uncommon Policy Research working Paper; No. 2412. World Bank Publications.
- Feige, E. L. (2016). Reflections on the meaning and measurement of unobserved economies: What do we really know about the "shadow economy"? Journal of Tax Administration, 2(1), 5-25.
- Feld, L. P., & Schneider, F. (2010). Survey on the Shadow Economy and Undeclared Income in OECD Countries. OECD Economic Studies. doi.org/1111/j.1468-0475.2010.00509.x
- Gonzalo, J., & Pitarakis, J. Y. (2002). Estimation and model selection based inference in single and multiple threshold models. Journal of econometrics, 110(2), 319-352. doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(02)00098-2
- Hajilee, M., Stringer, D. Y., & Hayes, L. A. (2021). On the link between the shadow economy and stock market development: An asymmetry analysis. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 80, 303-316. doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2021.02.011
- Hasan Mhejir, J., Hekmati Farid, S., Rezazadeh, A., & Mohammadzadeh, Y. (2025). Investigating the impact of the shadow economy on financial market performance and the banking sector of BRICS countries (Panel SUR approach). Asset Management and Financing, 13(2), 1-28. doi.org/10.22108/amf.2024.142315.1905 (in persian)
- Hinds, R. (2015). Economic growth and fragility. GSDRC Helpdesk Research Report.
- Junior, C. J. C., Garcia-Cintado, A. C., & Usabiaga, C. (2021). Fiscal adjustments and the shadow economy in an emerging market. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 25(7), 1666-1700. doi.org/10.1017/S1365100519000828
- Kao C. (1999). Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data. Journal of Econometrics, 90(1), 1–44. doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00023-2
- Kar, S., & Bhanumurthy, N. R. (2019). Impact of informal economy on macro-economic indicators: Evidence from India. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 18, e00103. doi.org/10.3390/su141911989
- Kelikume, I. (2021). Digital financial inclusion, informal economy and poverty reduction in Africa. Journal of Enterprising Communities: People and Places in the Global Economy, 15(4), 626-640. doi.org/10.1108/JEC-06-2020-0124
- Khandoozi, S. A., & Mirnezami, E. (2019). Measuring the impact of economic complexity on vulnerability and resilience index. Economic Essays, 16(32), 9-33. doi.org/10.30471/iee.2020.5502.1777 (in persian)
- Levine, R. (2005). Finance and growth: theory and evidence. NBER Working Paper. No. 10766. doi.org/10.3386/w10766
- Levitt, S. D., & Venkatesh, S. A. (2000). An economic analysis of a drug-selling gang's finances. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 115(3), 755-789. doi.org/10.1162/003355300554908
- Maloney, W. F. (2004). Informality revisited. World Development, 32(7), 1159-1178. doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2004.01.008
- Mazhar, U., & Jafri, J. (2017). Can the shadow economy undermine the effect of political stability on inflation? Empirical evidence. Journal of applied economics, 20(2), 395-420. doi.org/10.1016/S1514-0326(17)30018-1
- Medina, L., & Schneider, F. (2018). Shadow economies around the world: What did we learn over the last 20 years? IMF Working Paper No. 18/17.
- Modica, M., & Reggiani, A. (2015). Spatial economic resilience: overview and perspectives. Networks and Spatial Economics, 15, 211-233. doi.org/10.1007/s11067-014-9261-7
- Murray, C. (2007). The anti-politics machine: Development, depoliticization and bureaucratic power in Lesotho. University of Calgary Press.
- Nguyen, D. V., & Duong, M. T. H. (2021). Shadow economy, corruption and economic growth: an analysis of BRICS countries. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 8(4), 665-672. doi.org /10.13106/jafeb.2021.vol8.no4.0665
- Ohnsorge, F., & Yu, S. (2021). The long shadow of informality. World Bank Group. /doi.org /10.1596/978-1-4648-1753-3
- Ortiz, C., Alvarado, R., Méndez, P., & Flores-Chamba, J. (2022). Environmental impact of the shadow economy, globalisation, and human capital: capturing spillovers effects using spatial panel data approach. Journal of Environmental Management, 308, 114663. doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.114663
- Pesaran, M. H. (2021). General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels. Empirical economics, 60(1), 13-50. doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.572504
- Pham, M. H., Truong, H. D. H., & Hoang, D. P. (2024). Economic complexity, shadow economy, and income inequality: fresh evidence from panel data. International Economic Journal, 38(2), 270-292. doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2024.2311704
- Saadoon-Shnaishel, T., Mohammadzadeh Y., Bashir-Khodaparasti, R., & Jahangiri, S. (2024). Investigating the impact of political risk on the shadow economy: A quantile panel approach. Economic Modeling, 18(65), 45-72. doi.org/10.71849/ECO.2024.1127783 (in persian)
- Sachs, J. D., & Warner, A. M. (2001). The curse of natural resources. European Economic Review, 45(4-6), 827-838. doi.org/10.1016/S0014-2921(01)00125-8
- Safuan, S., Habibullah, M. S., & Sugandi, E. A. (2021). Mitigating the shadow economy through financial sector development in Indonesia: some empirical results. Heliyon, 7 (12), e08633. doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e08633
- Saha, S., Beladi, H., & Kar, S. (2021). Corruption control, shadow economy and income inequality: Evidence from Asia. Economic Systems, 45(2), 100774. doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2020.100774
- Schneider, F. (2013). Size and development of the shadow economies of 31 european and 21 other OECD countries from 2003 to 2013. Johannes Kepler University.
- Schneider, F., & Buehn, A. (2012). Shadow economies in highly developed economies: What are the driving forces? International Economic Journal, 26(4), 543-558. doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2161228
- Schneider, F., & Enste, P. (2000). Shadow economies: Size, causes, and consequences. Journal of Economic Literature, 38(1), 77-114. doi.org/10.1257/jel.38.1.77
- Schneider, F., & Williams, C. C. (2013). The shadow economy. Institute of Economic Affairs Monographs, doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3915632
- Stojanović, I., Ateljević, J., & Stević, R. S. (2016). Good governance as a tool of sustainable development. European Journal of Sustainable Development, 5(4), 558-558. doi.org/10.14207/ejsd.2016.v5n4p558
- Tanzi, V., & Davoodi, H. (1997). Corruption, public investment, and growth. IMF Working Paper. No. 1997/139.
- Torgler, B. (2003). The nature of the underground economy: A comparative study of the situation in Europe and the United States. Applied Economics Letters, 10(7), 439-442.
- Unver, M., & Dogru, B. (2015). The determinants of economic fragility: case of the fragile five countries. Akdeniz İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 31, 1-42.
- Achim, M. V., & Borlea, S. N. (2020). Economic and financial crime: Corruption, shadow economy, money laundering, (20). Springer Nature. doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-51780-9
- Williams, C. C., & Martinez-Perez, A. (2016). Why do consumers purchase goods and services in the informal economy? Journal of Business Research, 69(3), 979-985. doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2013.11.048
- Yevdokimov, Y., Melnyk, L., Lyulyov, O., Panchenko, O., & Kubatko, V. (2018). Economic freedom and democracy: Determinant factors in increasing macroeconomic stability. Problems and Perspectives in Management, 16(2), 279-290. doi.org/10.1016/ppm.16(2).2018.26