تاثیر ریسک‌های کشوری بر پیچیدگی اقتصادی و نقش راهبرد اقتصاد باز

محورهای موضوعی : اقتصاد صنعتی

حسین علاء جعفر ¹ , صمد حکمتی فرید ² , یوسف محمدزاده ³

1 - دانشجوی دکتری علوم اقتصادی، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران، [e-mail]
2 - دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران (نویسنده مسئول)، [e-mail]
3 - دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران، [e-mail]

تاریخ دریافت : 1403/06/01 تاریخ پذیرش : 1403/08/24 تاریخ انتشار : 1403/08/29

کلید واژه: ریسک‌های کشوری, پیچیدگی اقتصادی, راهبرد اقتصاد باز, رویکرد غیرخطی پانل آستانه‌ای (PSTR). ,

چکیده مقاله :

هدف این مقاله بررسی تاثیر ریسک‌های کشوری بر پیچیدگی اقتصادی و نقش راهبرد اقتصاد باز با استفاده از رویکرد غیرخطی پانل آستانه‌ای طی دوره 2007-2021 در 47 کشور نوظهور بود؛ از این‌رو، این مطالعه، شواهد جدیدی را از رفتار نامتقارن ریسک‌های کشوری و پیچیدگی اقتصادی در کشورها با درجات متفاوت بازبودن تجاری ارايه کرده است. نتایج نشان داد که ریسک‌های مالی، اقتصادی و سیاسی در مدل‌های مدنظر بر پیچیدگی اقتصادی تاثیر منفی داشته است. این اثرگذاری در کشورهای با درجه بالای باز بودن تجاری بیشتر بوده است. همچنین، فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات، کنترل فساد، سرمایه اجتماعی، سرمایه-گذاری مستقیم خارجی بر پیچیدگی اقتصادی تاثیر مثبت داشته است؛ اما اثرات مخارج دولت و تراکم جمعیت در کشورها با درجات متفاوت باز بودن تجاری بر پیچیدگی اقتصادی متفاوت بوده است. براساس نتایج، کنترل ریسک‌های کشوری، بهبود ارتباطات و اطلاعات، تقویت سرمایه اجتماعی، تسهیل ورود سرمایه¬گذاری خارجی، کنترل فساد و بهبود فرايند آزاد تجاری پیشنهاد می‌شود.

چکیده انگلیسی:

This paper investigated the impacts of country risks on economic complexity and the role of the degree of economic openness, by using the Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) approach in a sample of 47 Emerging Countries during 2007-2021. To strengthen the results, these risks are estimated in separate models. Country risk refers to the economic, social, and political conditions and events in a foreign country that may adversely affect a financial institution's operations. In the present study, the usage of the PSTR approach provides new evidence of the asymmetric behavior of country risks and economic complexity in countries with varying degrees of trade openness. The results show that financial, economic, and political risks have a negative impact on economic complexity in the intended models. This impact has been greater in countries with a high degree of trade openness. Also, information and communication technology, control of corruption, social capital, and foreign direct investment have a positive impact on economic complexity. However, the effects of government expenditure and population density on economic complexity have been different in countries with different degrees of trade openness. Controlling country risks, improving communication and information, strengthening social capital, facilitating the entry of foreign investment, controlling corruption, and improving the free trade process are among the recommendations of the present study.

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