تاثیر ریسک‌های کشوری بر پیچیدگی اقتصادی و نقش راهبرد اقتصاد باز

محورهای موضوعی : اقتصاد صنعتی

حسین علاء جعفر ¹ , صمد حکمتی فرید ² , یوسف محمدزاده ³

1 - دانشجوی دکتری علوم اقتصادی، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران، [e-mail]
2 - دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران (نویسنده مسئول)، [e-mail]
3 - دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران، [e-mail]

تاریخ دریافت : 1403/06/01 تاریخ پذیرش : 1403/08/24 تاریخ انتشار : 1403/08/29

کلید واژه: ریسک‌های کشوری, پیچیدگی اقتصادی, راهبرد اقتصاد باز, رویکرد غیرخطی پانل آستانه‌ای (PSTR). ,

چکیده مقاله :

هدف این مقاله بررسی تاثیر ریسک‌های کشوری بر پیچیدگی اقتصادی و نقش راهبرد اقتصاد باز با استفاده از رویکرد غیرخطی پانل آستانه‌ای طی دوره 2021-2007 در 47 کشور نوظهور بود؛ ازاین‌رو، این مطالعه، شواهد جدیدی را از رفتار نامتقارن ریسک‌های کشوری و پیچیدگی اقتصادی در کشورها با درجات متفاوت بازبودن تجاری ارايه کرده است. نتایج نشان داد که ریسک‌های مالی، اقتصادی و سیاسی در مدل‌های مد نظر بر پیچیدگی اقتصادی تاثیر منفی داشته است. این اثرگذاری در کشورهای با درجه بالای باز بودن تجاری بیشتر بوده است. همچنین، فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات، کنترل فساد، سرمایه اجتماعی، سرمایه­گذاری مستقیم خارجی بر پیچیدگی اقتصادی تاثیر مثبت داشته است؛ اما آثار مخارج دولت و تراکم جمعیت در کشورها با درجات متفاوت باز بودن تجاری بر پیچیدگی اقتصادی متفاوت بوده است. براساس نتایج، کنترل ریسک‌های کشوری، بهبود ارتباطات و اطلاعات، تقویت سرمایه اجتماعی، تسهیل ورود سرمایه‌گذاری خارجی، کنترل فساد و بهبود فرايند آزاد تجاری پیشنهاد می‌شود.

چکیده انگلیسی:

This paper examines the impact of country risks on economic complexity and the moderating role of economic openness, using a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) approach on a sample of 47 emerging countries from 2007 to 2021. To enhance the robustness of results, country risks assesse through separate models. Country risk encompasses the economic, social, and political conditions in a foreign country that may adversely affect financial institutions' operations. The PSTR approach in this study uncovers new evidence on the asymmetric effects of country risks and economic complexity across countries with varying levels of trade openness. Results indicate that financial, economic, and political risks negatively affect economic complexity, with a stronger effect observed in highly open economies. Additionally, information and communication technology, control of corruption, social capital, and foreign direct investment positively influence economic complexity. However, government expenditure and population density show varied effects on economic complexity depending on a country's trade openness level. Policy recommendations include managing country risks, advancing information and communication technology, bolstering social capital, attracting foreign investment, controlling corruption, and fostering free trade to enhance economic complexity

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