بررسی تاثیر ریسک سیاسی بر اقتصاد سایه: رویکرد پانل کوانتایل

محورهای موضوعی : اقتصاد بخش عمومی

ذر سعدون شنیشل ¹ , یوسف محمدزاده ^{2 *} , رامین بشیر خداپرستی ³ , شهاب جهانگیری ⁴

1 - دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد مالی، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران.
2 - دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران (نویسنده مسئول)،[e-mail]
3 - دانشیار، گروه مدیریت، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران،[e-mail]
4 - دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران، [e-mail]

تاریخ دریافت : 1402/05/02 تاریخ پذیرش : 1403/05/06 تاریخ انتشار : 1403/05/10

کلید واژه: اقتصاد سایه, ریسک سیاسی, پانل کوانتایل ,

چکیده مقاله :

هدف این مقاله بررسی تاثیر ریسک سیاسی بر اقتصاد سایه است. بدین¬منظور با استفاده از داده¬های 52 کشور درحال¬توسعه و 38 کشور توسعه¬یافته به بررسی تاثیر ریسک سیاسی بر اندازه اقتصاد سایه طی دوره 2020-2000 پرداخته است. در این مقاله از رویکرد پانل کوانتایل به¬طور مجزا برای دو گروه از کشورهای توسعه¬یافته و در حال¬توسعه برای برآورد مدل تحقیق استفاده شده است. نتایج نشان می¬دهد که ریسک سیاسی در همه دهکها و در هر دو گروه از کشورهای توسعه¬یافته و درحال¬توسعه تاثیر مثبت و معنادار بر اندازه اقتصاد سایه داشته است. بدین معنا که کشورهایی که ریسک¬های سیاسی بالاتری را تجربه می¬کنند حجم اقتصاد پنهان و غیررسمی بیشتر است. همچنین نتایج این تحقیق نشان می¬دهد که نرخ بیکاری، وفور منابع طبیعی و مالیات اثر مثبت بر اندازه اقتصاد سایه دارد، ولی کیفیت مقررات و آزادی اقتصادی به‌طور معنادار در هر دو گروه از کشورها موجب کاهش اندازه اقتصاد سایه می¬شوند. بر اساس نتایج، کاهش ریسک‌های سیاسی، بهبود مقررات دولتی در حمایت از بخش خصوصی، بهبود آزادی کسب¬وکار و تجارت، شفافیت مالی و عملکردی در بهره¬برداری از منابع طبیعی و همچنین اشتغال¬زایی و بهبود فضای کسب¬وکار از توصیه¬های سیاستی این مقاله است.

چکیده انگلیسی:

The purpose of this article is to investigate the impact of political risk on the shadow economy. To this end, using data from 52 developing countries and 38 developed countries, it investigated the effect of political risk on the size of the underground economy over the period 2000-2020. In this study, the quantize panel approach was used separately for two groups of developed and developing countries to estimate the research model. The results show that political risk had a positive and significant effect on the size of the underground economy in all decades and in both developed and developing country groups. This means that countries facing higher political risks have a more hidden and informal economy. Also, the results of this research show that the unemployment rates, abundance of natural resources and taxes have a positive effect on the size of the shadow economy, but the quality of regulations and economic freedom significantly reduce the size of the shadow economy in both groups of countries. Based on the results, reducing political risks, improving government regulations in support of the private sector, improving business and trade freedom, financial and operational transparency in the exploitation of natural resources, as well as creating jobs and improving the business environment are policy recommendations of this study.

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