بررسی تاثیر ریسک سیاسی بر اقتصاد سایه: رویکرد پانل کوانتایل

محورهای موضوعی : اقتصاد بخش عمومی

ذر سعدون شنیشل ¹ , یوسف محمدزاده ² , رامین بشیر خداپرستی ³ , شهاب جهانگیری ⁴

1 - دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد مالی، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران.
2 - دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران (نویسنده مسئول)،[e-mail]
3 - دانشیار، گروه مدیریت، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران،[e-mail]
4 - دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران، [e-mail]

تاریخ دریافت : 1402/05/02 تاریخ پذیرش : 1403/05/06 تاریخ انتشار : 1403/05/10

کلید واژه: اقتصاد سایه, ریسک سیاسی, پانل کوانتایل ,

چکیده مقاله :

هدف این مقاله بررسی تاثیر ریسک سیاسی بر اقتصاد سایه است. بدین¬منظور با استفاده از داده¬های 52 کشور درحال¬توسعه و 38 کشور توسعه¬یافته به بررسی تاثیر ریسک سیاسی بر اندازه اقتصاد سایه طی دوره 2020-2000 پرداخته است. در این مقاله از رویکرد پانل کوانتایل به¬طور مجزا برای دو گروه از کشورهای توسعه¬یافته و در حال¬توسعه برای برآورد مدل تحقیق استفاده شده است. نتایج نشان می¬دهد که ریسک سیاسی در همه دهکها و در هر دو گروه از کشورهای توسعه¬یافته و درحال¬توسعه تاثیر مثبت و معنادار بر اندازه اقتصاد سایه داشته است. بدین معنا که کشورهایی که ریسک¬های سیاسی بالاتری را تجربه می¬کنند حجم اقتصاد پنهان و غیررسمی بیشتر است. همچنین نتایج این تحقیق نشان می¬دهد که نرخ بیکاری، وفور منابع طبیعی و مالیات اثر مثبت بر اندازه اقتصاد سایه دارد، ولی کیفیت مقررات و آزادی اقتصادی به‌طور معنادار در هر دو گروه از کشورها موجب کاهش اندازه اقتصاد سایه می¬شوند. بر اساس نتایج، کاهش ریسک‌های سیاسی، بهبود مقررات دولتی در حمایت از بخش خصوصی، بهبود آزادی کسب¬وکار و تجارت، شفافیت مالی و عملکردی در بهره¬برداری از منابع طبیعی و همچنین اشتغال¬زایی و بهبود فضای کسب¬وکار از توصیه¬های سیاستی این مقاله است.

چکیده انگلیسی:

The purpose of this article is to investigate the impact of political risk on the shadow economy. To this end, using data from 52 developing countries and 38 developed countries, it investigated the effect of political risk on the size of the underground economy over the period 2000-2020. In this study, the quantize panel approach was used separately for two groups of developed and developing countries to estimate the research model. The results show that political risk had a positive and significant effect on the size of the underground economy in all decades and in both developed and developing country groups. This means that countries facing higher political risks have a more hidden and informal economy. Also, the results of this research show that the unemployment rates, abundance of natural resources and taxes have a positive effect on the size of the shadow economy, but the quality of regulations and economic freedom significantly reduce the size of the shadow economy in both groups of countries. Based on the results, reducing political risks, improving government regulations in support of the private sector, improving business and trade freedom, financial and operational transparency in the exploitation of natural resources, as well as creating jobs and improving the business environment are policy recommendations of this study.

منابع و مأخذ:

- Ajide, K. B., & Ridwan, L. I. (2023). Does natural resource wealth hinder or promote activity of the shadow markets in Africa? Resources Policy, 85, 104025.
- Alvarado, R., Tillaguango, B., López-Sánchez, M., Ponce, P., & Işık, C. (2021). Heterogeneous impact of natural resources on income inequality: the role of the shadow economy and human capital index. Economic Analysis and Policy, 69, 690-704.
- Bajada, C., & Schneider, F. (2009). Unemployment and the shadow economy in the OECD. Revue économique, 60(5), 1033-1067.
- Baloch, A., Shah, S. Z., Rasheed, S., & Rasheed, B. (2022). The impact of shadow economy on environmental degradation: empirical evidence from Pakistan. GeoJournal, 87(3), 1887-1912.
- Bayar, Y. (2016). Public governance and shadow economy in Central and Eastern European countries. Revista» Administratie si Management Public (RAMP), (27), 62-73.
- Bayar, Y., & Öztürk, O. F. (2019). Economic freedom, globalization, and the shadow economy in the European Union transition economies: a panel cointegration analysis. Organizations and Markets in Emerging Economies, 10(2), 378-391.
- Berdiev, A. N., Saunoris, J. W., & Schneider, F. (2018). Give me liberty, or I will produce underground: Effects of economic freedom on the shadow economy. Southern Economic Journal, 85(2), 537-562.
- Biswas, A. K., Farzanegan, M. R., & Thum, M. (2012). Pollution, shadow economy and corruption: Theory and evidence. Ecological economics, 75, 114-125.
- Blanton, R. G., & Peksen, D. (2023). Natural resource wealth and the informal economy. International Political Science Review, 44(3), 418-433.
- Canh, N. P., & Thanh, S. D. (2020). Financial development and the shadow economy: A multi-dimensional analysis. Economic Analysis and Policy, 67, 37-54.
- Chen, H., Hao, Y., Li, J., & Song, X. (2018). The impact of environmental regulation, shadow economy, and corruption on environmental quality: Theory and empirical evidence from China. Journal of Cleaner production, 195, 200-214.
- Chu, L. K., Doğan, B., Ghosh, S., & Shahbaz, M. (2023). The influence of shadow economy, environmental policies and geopolitical risk on renewable energy: A comparison of high-and middle-income countries. Journal of Environmental Management, 342, 118122.
- Dada, J. T., Ajide, F. M., Arnaut, M., & Al-Faryan, M. A. S. (2024). On the contributing factors to shadow economy in Africa: Do natural resources, ethnicity and religious diversity make any difference? Resources Policy, 88, 104478.
- Davidescu, A. A., & Dobre, I. (2012). The Causal relationship between the unemployment rate and US shadow economy. A Toda-Yamamoto approach. Journal of Social and Economic Statistics, 1(1), 21-34.
- Dell’Anno, R. (2016). Analyzing the determinants of the shadow economy with a “separate approach”. An application of the relationship between inequality and the shadow economy. World Development, 84, 342-356.
- Dung, H. P., & Thanh, T. T. (2021). Economic complexity and shadow economy: A multi-dimensional analysis. Economic Analysis and Policy, 72, 408-422.
- Elbahnasawy, N. G., Ellis, M. A., & Adom, A. D. (2016). Political instability and the informal economy. World Development, 85, 31-42.
- Enste, D. H. (2010). Regulation and shadow economy: empirical evidence for 25 OECD-countries. Constitutional Political Economy, 21, 231-248.
- Esaku, S. (2021). Does income inequality increase the shadow economy? Empirical evidence from Uganda. Development Studies Research, 8(1), 147-160.
- Farzanegan, M. R., Hassan, M., & Badreldin, A. M. (2020). Economic liberalization in Egypt: A way to reduce the shadow economy? Journal of Policy Modeling, 42(2), 307-327.
- Fedajev, A., Veličković, M., Nikolić, R., Cogoljevic, M., & Remeikienė, R. (2022). Factors of the shadow economy in market and transition economies during the post-crisis period: is there a difference? Inžinerinė ekonomika, 33(3), 246-263.
- Freytag, A., Schneider, F., & Spiegel, S. E. (2022). The influence of economic freedom on the shadow economy in developed and developing countries. The Economists’ Voice, 19(2), 183-205.
- Gasparėnienė, L., Bilan, Y., Remeikienė, R., Ginevičius, R., & Čepel, M. (2017). The methodology of digital shadow economy estimation.
- Graeff, P. (2024). The impact of economic freedom on corruption and the shadow economy. In Handbook of Research on Economic Freedom (pp. 372-386). Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Hajilee, M., Stringer, D. Y., & Hayes, L. A. (2021). On the link between the shadow economy and stock market development: An asymmetry analysis. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 80, 303-316.
- Ishak, P. W., & Farzanegan, M. R. (2022). Oil price shocks, protest, and the shadow economy: Is there a mitigation effect? Economics & Politics, 34(2), 298-321.
- Jamalmanesh, A. (2011). Institutional governance effect on the shadow economy in Asia. Journal of American Science, 7(7), 325-333.
- Khan, S., & Rehman, M. Z. (2022). Macroeconomic fundamentals, institutional quality and shadow economy in OIC and non-OIC countries. Journal of Economic Studies, 49(8), 1566-1584.
- Koenker, R. & Bassett, G. (1978). Regression quantiles. Econometrica, 46, 33–50.
- Koufopoulou, P., Williams, C. C., Vozikis, A., & Souliotis, K. (2019). Shadow economy: Definitions, terms & theoretical considerations. Advances in Management and Applied Economics, 9(5), 35-57.
- Lelia, C., & Maria, S. (2012). Benefits and costs of the informal sector: the case of brick kilns in Bangladesh. Journal of Environmental Protection, 2012.
- Luong, T. T. H., Nguyen, T. M., & Nguyen, T. A. N. (2020). Rule of law, economic growth and shadow economy in transition countries. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 7(4), 145-154.
- Lyulyov, O., & Moskalenko, B. (2020). Institutional quality and shadow economy: An investment potential evaluation model. Virtual Economics, 3(4), 131-146.
- Lyulyov, O., Paliienko, M., Prasol, L., Vasylieva, T., Kubatko, O., & Kubatko, V. (2021). Determinants of shadow economy in transition countries: Economic and environmental aspects. International journal of global energy issues, 43(2-3), 166-182.
- Manolas, G., Rontos, K., Sfakianakis, G., & Vavouras, I. (2013). The determinants of the shadow economy: The case of Greece.
- Mauleón, I., & Sardà, J. (2017). Unemployment and the shadow economy. Applied economics, 49(37), 3729-3740.
- Navickas, M., Juščius, V., & Navickas, V. (2019). Determinants of shadow economy in Eastern European countries. Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, 66(1), 1-14.
- Němec, D., Kotlánová, E., Kotlán, I., & Machová, Z. (2021). Corruption, taxation and the impact on the shadow economy. Economies, 9(1), 18.
- Newey, W. K., & Powell, J. L. (1987). Asymmetric least squares estimation and testing. Econometrica. Journal of the Econometric Society, 819-847.
- Ohnsorge, F., & Yu, S. (2021). The long shadow of informality. World Bank Group.
- Ortiz, C., Alvarado, R., Méndez, P., & Flores-Chamba, J. (2022). Environmental impact of the shadow economy, globalisation, and human capital: capturing spillovers effects using spatial panel data approach. Journal of Environmental Management, 308, 114663.
- Pang, J., Li, N., Mu, H., Jin, X., & Zhang, M. (2022). Asymmetric effects of urbanization on shadow economy both in short-run and long-run: new evidence from dynamic panel threshold model. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 177, 121514.
- PRS Group. (2012). International country risk guide methodology. URL: http://www. prsgroup. com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/icrgmethodology. pdf (accessed November 24, 2018).
- Psychoyios, D., Missiou, O., & Dergiades, T. (2021). Energy based estimation of the shadow economy: The role of governance quality. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 80, 797-808.
- Razmi, M. J., & Jamalmanesh, A. (2014). How political indices affect the shadow economy. Romanian Economic and Business Review, 9(1), 45.
- Remeikiene, R., & Gaspareniene, L. (2021). The nexus between unemployment and the shadow economy in Lithuanian regions during the COVID-19 pandemic. Journal of international studies, 14(3).
- Ruge, M. (2012). Public governance and the shadow economy. In German Institute of Economic Research, Shadow Economy Conference.
- Safuan, S., Habibullah, M. S., & Sugandi, E. A. (2021). Mitigating the shadow economy through financial sector development in Indonesia: some empirical results. Heliyon, 7(12).
- Saha, S., Beladi, H., & Kar, S. (2021). Corruption control, shadow economy and income inequality: Evidence from Asia. Economic Systems, 45(2), 100774.
- Sahnoun, M., & Abdennadher, C. (2019). The nexus between unemployment rate and shadow economy: a comparative analysis of developed and developing countries using a simultaneous-equation model (No. 2019-30). Economics Discussion Papers.
- Saunoris, J. W. (2024). Individualism, economic freedom, and the development of the shadow economy. Economic Systems, 48(1), 101168.
- Schneider, F., & Enste, D. H. (2000). Shadow economies: Size, causes, and consequences. Journal of economic literature, 38(1), 77-114.
- Shahab, M. R., Pajooyan, J., & Ghaffari, F. (2015). The effect of corruption on shadow economy: an empirical analysis based on panel data. International Journal of Business and Development Studies, 7(1), 85-100.
- Siddik, M. N. A., Kabiraj, S., Hosen, M. E., & Miah, M. F. (2022). Impacts of political stability on shadow economy: evidence from Bay of Bengal initiative for multi-sectoral technical and economic cooperation countries. Vision, 26(2), 221-231.
- Stiglitz, J. E., & Pieth, M. (2016). Overcoming the shadow economy. Friedrich Ebert Stiftung.
- Torgler, B., & Schneider, F. (2007). Shadow economy, tax morale, governance and institutional quality: a panel analysis.
- Torgler, B., Schneider, F., & Macintyre, A. (2011). Shadow economy, voice and accountability, and corruption. In Handbook on the shadow economy. Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Tran, T. K. P. (2021). Unemployment and shadow economy in ASEAN countries. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 8(11), 41-46.
- Tran, T. K. P. (2021). Unemployment and shadow economy in ASEAN countries. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 8(11), 41-46.
- Ur Rahman, S., Faisal, F., Sami, F., & Schneider, F. (2023). Does country risk moderates the financial market development and shadow economy nexus? Evidence from fast-emerging countries analysis. International Journal of Emerging Markets.
- Vo, D. H., Ha, D. T. T., & Ly, T. H. (2015). Shadow Economy and Corruption in the ASEAN: Complement or Substitute? In A New Paradigm for International Business: Proceedings of the Conference on Free Trade Agreements and Regional Integration in East Asia (pp. 151-169). Springer Singapore.
- Vostroknutova, K. (2003). Shadow Economy, Rent-Seeking Activities and the Perils of Reinforcement of the Rule of Law. Rent-Seeking Activities and the Perils of Reinforcement of the Rule of Law (March 2003).
- Williams, C. C., & Schneider, F. (2016). Measuring the Global Shadow Economy: the prevalence of informal work and labour. Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Yap, W. W., Sarmidi, T., Shaari, A. H., & Said, F. F. (2018). Income inequality and shadow economy: a nonparametric and semiparametric analysis. Journal of Economic Studies, 45(1), 2-13.
- Zhanabekov, S. (2022). Robust determinants of the shadow economy. Bulletin of Economic Research, 74(4), 1017-1052.