بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر نرخ ارز در ایران از دیدگاه پست کینزین ها Investigating the Factors Affecting the Exchange Rate in Iran from the Perspective of Keynesians
محورهای موضوعی : اقتصاد مالی
سید محمد آقامیری
1
(
گروه اقتصاد ، واحد تهران مرکزی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی ، تهران،ایران
)
مرجان دامن کشیده
2
(
گروه اقتصاد واحد تهران مرکزی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی ،تهران،ایران
)
منیژه هادی نژاد
3
(
گروه اقتصاد ،واحد تهران مرکزی ، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی تهران،ایران
)
کلید واژه: F31, نرخ ارز, F37, واژه‌های کلیدی:عوامل مؤثر, دیدگاه پست کینزین ها. طبقه بندی JEL:B5,
چکیده مقاله :
نـرخ ارز در 40سال گذشته بـا سـه جهـش فزاینده و ناهمسان در اقتصاد ایران مواجـه بوده اسـت. از آنجا که شرایط و ساختار اقتصادی بویژه تقاضای موثر نقش تعیین‌کننده‌ای در نوسانات ،جهت دهی و افزایش نرخ ارز دارد، در این مقاله، با تبیین نظری و طراحی الگویی مناسب، عوامل مؤثر بر نرخ ارز در ایران از دیدگاه پست کینزین هاارزیابی شده است.بر مبنای داده های 1350 الی 1398 و با استفاده از الگوی رگرسیون خود برداری روابط بلندمدت میان متغیرهای الگو آزمون شد. متغیرها در سطح صفر وبر اساس نتایج آمارهاثرو حداکثرمقدارویژه در قالب سه رابطه بلندمدت در سطح0.95 برآورد و نتایج نشان می دهد که سه متغیرشاخص قیمت ، خالص صادرت و نرخ بهره بیشترین تأثیر را بر افزایش نرخ ارز دارند.Investigating the Factors Affecting the Exchange Rate in Iran from the Perspective of KeynesiansMohamad AghamiriMarjan Daman keshidehManijeh HadinejadAbstractA look at exchange rate developments over the past 40 years shows that the Iranian economy has experienced three major leaps during this period. While the rate of exchange rate increase was not the same in each of the three jumps, and since the economic conditions and structure of countries a decisive role in the relationship between economic variables, so the study of factors affecting the exchange rate in Iran from a postal perspective Keynesians are one of the main goals of this article. In this article, an attempt has been made; By theoretically explaining and designing a model and using econometric methods, the factors affecting the exchange rate in Iran from the perspective of Keynesians were studied. The information and statistics required for the research during the years 1350 to 1398 were collected through the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Statistics Center. In this paper, data were analyzed using self-vector regression. First, using Phillips-Perron test and Johansen static co-integration test and long-run relationships of variables were examined. There is a level of 0.95 between the variables. Using shock analysis and analysis of variance, it was shown that the price index and net exports and interest rates have the greatest impact on the exchange rate.
A look at exchange rate developments over the past 40 years shows that the Iranian economy has experienced three major leaps during this period. While the rate of exchange rate increase was not the same in each of the three jumps, and since the economic conditions and structure of countries a decisive role in the relationship between economic variables, so the study of factors affecting the exchange rate in Iran from a postal perspective Keynesians are one of the main goals of this article. In this article, an attempt has been made; By theoretically explaining and designing a model and using econometric methods, the factors affecting the exchange rate in Iran from the perspective of Keynesians were studied. The information and statistics required for the research during the years 1350 to 1398 were collected through the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Statistics Center. In this paper, data were analyzed using self-vector regression. First, using Phillips-Perron test and Johansen static co-integration test and long-run relationships of variables were examined. There is a level of 0.95 between the variables. Using shock analysis and analysis of variance, it was shown that the price index and net exports and interest rates have the greatest impact on the exchange rate.
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