Presenting an Entropy-Based Systemic Risk Warning Model

Subject Areas : Risk Management

Mahmood Nasrollahi ¹ , Majid Zanjirdar ² , Majid Davoudi Nasr ³

1 - Department of Finance ,Arak Branch, Islamic Azad University, Arak, Iran
2 - Department of Finance ,Arak Branch, Islamic Azad University, Arak, Iran
3 - Department of Accounting , Arak Branch, Islamic Azad University, Arak, Iran

Received: 2023-08-04 Accepted : 2024-02-23 Published : 2024-10-29

Keywords: Systemic Risk, Entropy, Financial Crisis , Risk Contagion,

Abstract :

Systemic risk is a type of financial instability that disrupts the functioning of the financial system and affects economic growth. The present study was developed with the aim of presenting a systemic risk warning model based on the entropy criterion in the financial markets of Iran. In terms of direction, the present research is of applied type and in terms of explanatory purpose, and the data collection method is library method. The statistical population of the country's financial markets research includes the capital market, money market, etc., and the time frame of this research is the data related to variables affecting systemic risk in the years 1998 to 2022. In this research, firstly, the identified criteria and indicators affecting systemic risk were ranked using Shannon entropy, Rennie entropy, and Tsallis entropy, and then systemic risk was measured with the MES criterion. The results of this research show that the most systemic risk is caused by the variable of banks' debt to the central bank, and the two variables of government debt and the ratio of government debt to GDP also have the highest systemic risk. According to the general theory of systems and the effectiveness and influence of financial markets on each other, the government and policy makers of the economic and financial sectors must take the necessary measures in order to create a systemic supervisory institution.

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