Modelling the effect of monetary policies of central bank on macroeco-nomic indicators in Iran using system dynamics and fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making techniques

Subject Areas : Financial Accounting

Mehdi Memarpour ¹ , Ashkan Hafezalkotob ² , Mohammad Khalilzadeh ³ , Abbas Saghaei ⁴ , Roya Soltani ⁵

1 - Department of Industrial Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Is-lamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2 - College of Industrial engineering, South Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
3 - Department of Industrial Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Is-lamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
4 - Department of Industrial Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Is-lamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
5 - Department of industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, KHATAM University, Tehran, Iran

Received: 2022-05-23 Accepted : 2022-07-07 Published : 2023-12-01

Keywords: fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making techniques, Monetary Policies, System Dynamics, macroeconomic indicators,

Abstract :

The most important policymaker entity in the bank-centered economy of Iran is central bank of Islamic Republic of Iran which has always been trying to manage and improve macroeconomic indicators by applying monetary policies. However, investigation of Iran's economy after four decades shows that this country has always suffered from double-digit inflation rates and 15000-fold liquidity throughout this period, while GDP of Iran has grown only by two times during this period. This paper tries to evaluate the effect of monetary policies of central bank on macroeconomic indicators by analytical-descriptive and library method via combining system dynamics and fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making using Vensim and Super Decision software. Monetary policy instruments in this re-search include foreign exchange rate, deposits interest rate, facilities interest rate, required reserve ratio, and open market operations. Further, the macroeconomic indicators include inflation, liquidity, national foreign exchange value, and eco-nomic growth. The results indicated that the most important macroeconomic indi-cators in the country according to economic experts are "national foreign ex-change value" and "inflation". The most important tool for monetary policies of central bank is "foreign exchange rate". Indeed, in order to improve the economic misery index, this bank should take measures to improve the national foreign exchange value, then manage inflation and liquidity, and eventually adjust the banking interest rate

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