The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Portfolio Performance Based on Traditional and Modern Network

Subject Areas : Financial and Economic Modelling

Yadegar Mohammadi ^{1 *} , Asfandiar Mohammadi ² , Gharibeh Esmaili kia ³

1 - Department Management, Ilam Branch, Islamic Azad University, Ilam, Iran
2 - Department of Management, Ilam University, Ilam, Iran
3 - Department Management, Ilam Branch, Islamic Azad University, Ilam, Iran

Accepted : 2020-08-31 Published : 2021-07-01

Keywords:

Abstract :

Evaluation of stock portfolio performance is considered one of the important issues in the capital market and investment management in stocks. Proper evaluation of portfolio performance requires recognizing the factors affecting it. The macroeconomic variables are important and effective factors due to affecting the systematic risk of companies. In this research, ordinary least squares method (OLS) was used to evaluate the effect of macroeconomic variables including inflation, interest rate, liquidity growth rate, oil price and currency rate (Rial versus Dollar) on the stock portfolio performance based on traditional and modern network theory. Performance of portfolios including growth portfolio, growth-value portfolio, and value portfolio, and offensive portfolio, indifferent and defensive portfolio was measured based on seasonal data from 2006 to 2016 using the Teriner Index. The research results show that at the error level of 5%, macroeconomic variables have an impact on the performance of both traditional and modern networks. However, the Akaike information criterion for the modern network model is equal to 5.822, which is less than the traditional network value with the value of 6.724. This suggests that the interpretation of macroeconomic variables in a modern network portfolio is better than that of traditional one. In addition, the effect of macro variables on the performance of the six portfolios will be different