Foresight of Financial Resilience of Entrepreneurial Businesses Using Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)

Subject Areas : Financial Mathematics

Ali Sobhani ¹ , Fatemeh Ahmadi ² , Rahmatollah Mohammadi puor ³ , Mohammad Izadikhah ⁴

1 - Department of accounting, Ilam Branch, Islamic Azad University, Ilam, Iran
2 - Department of accounting, Ilam Branch, Islamic Azad University, Ilam, Iran
3 - Department of accounting, Ilam Branch, Islamic Azad University, Ilam, Iran
4 - Department of Mathematics, Arak Branch, Islamic Azad University, Arak, Iran

Received: 2024-06-06 Accepted : 2024-08-13 Published : 2024-09-26

Keywords: Financial Resilience, Entrepreneurial Businesses, Causal Layered Analysis (CLA),

Abstract :

Financial resilience in businesses refers to their ability to withstand economic shocks and challenges while maintaining financial stability under difficult conditions. This study adopts an applied research approach with both descriptive and prescriptive future-oriented methods. It is qualitative research that uses Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) to identify financial resilience in entrepreneurial businesses. To achieve a deep understanding of causal layers, scenarios are developed based on the global business network perspective. Two rounds of interviews were conducted with 35 experts, both structured and unstructured, to extract financial resilience indicators in Iranian entrepreneurial businesses. From the literature review and expert interviews, 35 factors were identified. Two factors, enthusiasm and fear of failure, were eliminated, resulting in 33 final factors. The matrix of financial resilience scenarios for entrepreneurial businesses was presented in four scenarios: economic crisis, economic boom, old technology, and new technology. Subsequently, SWOT analysis was used to analyze and propose strategies aimed at directing towards the third scenario. The findings indicate that utilizing the CLA approach aims to offer a plan in the field of financial resilience for entrepreneurial businesses. This helps planners to set aside current thinking and consider possible and probable futures, which may not necessarily be a continuation of past trends, to achieve a long-term plan to enhance financial resilience in entrepreneurial businesses.

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