بررسی تأثیر گرایش احساسی و رفتار تودهوار سهامداران بر ریسک سقوط قیمت سهام

محورهای موضوعی : بازارها و نهادهای مالی

روژین شکورنیا ¹ , محسن دستگیر ² , افسانه سروش یار ³

1 - گروه حسابداری، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد اصفهان (خوراسگان)، اصفهان، ایران.
2 - گروه حسابداری، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد اصفهان (خوراسگان)، اصفهان، ایران.
3 - گروه حسابداری، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد اصفهان (خوراسگان)، اصفهان، ایران.

تاریخ دریافت : 1402/02/21 تاریخ پذیرش : 1402/07/07 تاریخ انتشار : 1402/06/01

کلید واژه: ریسک سقوط قیمت سهام, گرایش احساسی, رفتار توده‌وار سهامداران,

چکیده مقاله :

هدف: ریسک سقوط سهام یکی از نگرانی‌های سرمایه‌گذاران است و افزایش ریسک سقوط سهام سبب بدبینی سرمایه‌گذاران در بورس اوراق بهادار می‌شود و این رفتار توده‌وار، منجر به تشدید نوسانات بازار، بی‌ثبات شدن بازارها و افزایش شکنندگی سیستم‌های مالی می‌شوند؛ زیرا، هدف عمدة سرمایه‌گذاران از فعالیت در بازار سهام، کسب بازده معقول است و بازده از دو بخش تغییرات قیمت سهام و سود سهام تقسیمی به دست می‌آید تا سرمایه‌گذاران و تحلیل‌گران مالی باید بتوانند با استفاده از مدل‌های سرمایه‌گذاری، قیمت سهام و بازده را پیش‌بینی کنند؛ بنابراین، هدف از این پژوهش ضمن تبیین نوآوری بررسی تأثیر گرایش احساسی و رفتار توده‌وار سهام‌داران بر ریسک سقوط قیمت سهام شرکت‌های پذیرفته‌شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران از طریق روش داده‌های تابلویی می‌باشد.روش‌شناسی پژوهش: پژوهش حاضر ازنظر هدف، کاربردی و ازنظر ماهیت؛ توصیفی و همبستگی است. به همین منظور دو فرضیه تدوین و داده‌های مربوط به 100 شرکت عضو بورس اوراق بهادار تهران برای دوره زمانی 1391 الی 1399 مورداستفاده قرار گرفت. برای آزمون فرضیه‌ها از تکنیک رگرسیون چند متغیره به روش داده‌های تابلویی استفاده‌شده است.یافته‌ها: بین گرایش احساسی سرمایه‌گذاران و ریسک سقوط قیمت سهام رابطه مثبت و معناداری وجود دارد و همچنین بین رفتار توده‌وار سهام‌داران و ریسک سقوط قیمت سهام رابطه مثبت و معناداری وجود دارد.اصالت / ارزش‌افزوده علمی: نتایج نشان داد که تورش‌های رفتاری سرمایه‌گذاران ازجمله گرایش احساسی و رفتار توده‌وار منجر به کاهش کارایی بازار بورس و همچنین کاهش عقلانیت تصمیم‌گیری سرمایه‌گذاران گردیده که نتیجه آن افزایش خطر ریزش قیمت سهام هست.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Purpose: The purpose of this research i The risk of falling stocks is one of the concerns of investors, and increasing the risk of falling stocks causes pessimism among investors in the stock exchange, and this massive behavior leads to the aggravation of market fluctuations, destabilization of markets, and increased fragility of financial systems, The investors in the stock market is to obtain a reasonable return, is obtained from the two parts of stock price changes and dividends, so that investors financial analysts should be able to predict stock prices returns using investment models.Methodology: The present research is objective, practical and in terms of nature; It is descriptive and correlational. For this purpose, two hypotheses were formulated and data related to 100 member companies of Tehran Stock Exchange were used for the time period of 1391 to 1399. To test the hypotheses, the multivariate regression technique using the panel data method was used. Findings: There is a positive and significant relationship between the emotional tendency of investors and the risk of falling stock prices, and there is also a positive and significant relationship between the collective behavior of shareholders and the risk of falling stock prices.Research methodology: the present research is objective, practical and in terms of nature; It is descriptive and correlational. For this purpose, two hypotheses were formulated and data related to 100 member companies of Tehran Stock Exchange were used for the period of 2011 to 2019. To test the hypotheses, the multivariate regression technique using the panel data method has been used.Originality / Value: The results showed that the behavioral biases of investors, including emotional tendency and mass behavior, have led to a decrease in the efficiency of the stock market, as well as a decrease in the rationality of investors' decision-making, which results in an increase in the risk of falling stock Prices.

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