شناسایی عوامل موثر بر تولید در صنعت فرش با استفاده از تکنیک همگرایی جوهانسون-جوسیلیوس: مطالعه موردی استان کردستان
محورهای موضوعی : مدیریت صنعتی
Anvar khosravi
1
(Ph.D Student and Faculty Member, Department of Economics, Islamic Azad University, Sanandaj Branch)
Ramiar Refaei
2
(Ph.D Student and Instructor of Economics, Islamic Azad University, Sanandaj Branch,)
Hozan Refaei
3
(Master Student of Business Administration, Islamic Azad University, Sanandaj Branch)
کلید واژه: صنعت فرش, شاخصهای اقتصادی, همگرایی جوهانسون جوسیلیوس, Carpet Industry, Economic indexes, Johansen-Juselius Cointegration,
چکیده مقاله :
صنعت فرش در استان کردستان از قدمت و پیشینه طولانی برخوردار است بطوریکه در وضعیت کنونی از لحاظ ظرفیت ها و پتانسیلهای تولید و صادرات فرش، استان کردستان از مزیت نسبی برخوردار بوده و با ظرفیت بالای تشکلهای صنفی توان گسترش تولید و صادرات به بازارهای جهانی را داراست. این مقاله به برآورد تولید فرش در استان کردستان می پردازد. جهت برآورد تابع تولید فرش، سه شاخص اقتصادی ،اجتماعی و فرهنگی تعریف شده است و برای هر شاخص، دو متغیر معرفی شده است. با استفاده از روش همگرایی جوهانسون – جوسیلیوس و دوره زمانی 1390-1380، نتایج بلند مدت نشان می دهد که ارتباط مثبت و معنی داری بین متغیرهای معرفی شده و تولید فرش در استان وجود دارد. با توجه به ضریب ECM کوتاه مدت برآورد شده و قابل اتکا بودن نتایج در سطح 90% می توان گفت، روند حرکت متغیرها به سمت تعادل بلند مدت از تعدیل خوب و قابل توجیهی برخوردار است.
Carpet Industry has a long history and background in Kurdistan Province. Kurdistan has an advantage regarding the potentials in the production and export of carpet. The production and export to the world markets can be increased given the high potentials of trade organizations. This study estimated the production of carpet in Kurdistan Province. In order to estimate this function, three indices, i.e., economic, social and cultural indices were specified and two variables were introduced for each one. Using Johansen-Juselius Cointegration Technique for the period from 1999 to 2009, the long-term results showed that there was a significant positive relationship between most of the introduced variables and carpet production in Kurdistan. Regarding the short-term ECM Coefficient and the fact that the results of the tests are reliable at 90 % confidence interval, we can say that the process of the variables movement towards long-term balance has a good and justified balance.
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12- Statistics and Information from Iranian National Carpet Center, (2014) www. http://incc.ir.
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1- Arman, A., & Mohammadi, M. (2005). The Estimation of Effective Factors in the Export of Iranian Carpet, Quarterly of Quantitative Economics, 2(3).
2- Farahbakhsh, N.(2002). Analysis Effective Factors on Carpet Exports, Journal of Economic Research, 4, 223-236.
3- Ghamsari, I., Ghodrati, H., & Rezaei, H. (2010). Effective Factors in Carpet Export in the form of SWOT Matrix: The Case of Isfahan Province Carpet Organizations, Cooperation Quarterly, 21(2).
4- Hagh Shenas Kashani, F., Saeidi, N., & Hasan Poor Pazovari, M. (2010). Strategic Planning for Iranian Carpet Industry using SWOT Matrix on the verge of Membership in WTO, Commercial Reviews Quarterly, 2010, 8(43), pp 58-65.
5- Heshmati Razavi, F. A. (2013). The History and Evolutionary Development of Iranian Carpet, Tehran, The Organization for Researching and Composing University Textbooks in the Humanities (SAMT).
6- Hosseini, M. A., & Parmeh, Z. (2004). The Structure of the Global Market of Carpet and the Target Markets of Iran, Commercial Research Quarterly, 30, pp. 83-114.
7- Latifi, S., Sa’di, H. A., Ghorbanali Fami, H., & Moshref, M. (2013). The Analysis of the Economic-Social Effects of Rural Carpet Organizations of Hamedan Province, Journal of Applied Research in Geographic Sciences, 4(32).
8- Noforsati, M. (1999). Unit Root and Collectiveness in Econometrics, Tehran, Rasa Cultural Services Institute.
9- Panahi, H., & Refaei, R. (2012). The Effect Size of Government on Economic Growth In Iran, Quarterly Journal of Economic Modelling, 2(18), 123-138
10- Persian Carpet Association in Japan [PCAJ].2014. kurdistan carpet industry in attempt for achive of lost credity. http://www.persiancarpetassociation.com
11- Sham Abadi, M. A., & Hosseini, Kh. (2005). Designing an Export Marketing Pattern for Iranian Carpet, Journal of Humanities Training, Management Special Issue, 42.
12- Statistics and Information from Iranian National Carpet Center, (2014) www. http://incc.ir.
