بررسی تأثیر انواع خدمات بهداشتی و درمانی بر رشد اقتصادی ایران با استفاده از روش هم انباشتگی یوهانسن - جوسیلیوس
محورهای موضوعی : -مدارک پزشکی
ابراهیم قائد
1
,
محمد طاهر احمدی شادمهری
2
,
مژگان مرادی
3
,
محمدصادق محمدی
4
1 - دانشجوی دکتری رشته اقتصاد، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران
2 - دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران
3 - کارشناسی ارشد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه صنعتی شاهرود، شاهرود، ایران
4 - دانشجوی دکتری رشته اقتصاد، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران
کلید واژه: روش یوهانسن - جوسیلیوس, تصحیح خطا, خدمات بهداشتی و درمانی, رشد اقتصادی,
چکیده مقاله :
مقدمه: یکی از مهمترین پارامترهای مؤثر در جهت ارتقای سطح تولید و رشد اقتصادی ایران نقش بخش خدمات بهداشتی و درمانی و شاخص‌های مربوط به آن است، در این زمینه بررسی‌های زیادی انجام شده است ولی تاثیر تفکیک همزمان انواع خدمات بهداشتی و درمانی بر رشد اقتصادی ایران بررسی صورت نگرفته است. لذا ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺖ اثرات شاخص‌های بهداشتی و درمانی ﻭ ﻧﻴﺎﺯﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ به آن، به سیاست‌گذاران حوزه بهداشت کمک می‌کند تا بدانند اثر کدام شاخص خدمات بهداشتی و درمانی بر رشد بیشتر است تا آن را جهت سرمایه گذاری در اولویت قرار دهند. هدف اصلی پژوهش، بررسی تأثیر انواع خدمات بهداشتی و درمانی بر رشد اقتصادی ایران است. روش پژوهش: این مطالعه از لحاظ روش علّی - تحلیلی و از نظر هدف؛ کاربردی بوده و روش جمع‌آوری اطلاعات نیز از نوع اسنادی کتابخانه‌ای است. برای تحلیل موضوع از الگوی خودتوضیح برداری، روش یوهانسن - جوسیلیوس و روش تصحیح خطا استفاده شد. داده‌های بدست آمده با استفاده از نرم افزار Eviews در طی دوره 1396-1360مورد تجزیه و تحلیل قرار گرفت.. یافته‌ها: یافته‌ها بر اساس ضریب جمله تصحیح خطا، حاکی از آن است که در هر دوره حدود 0/86 از عدم تعادل کوتاه مدت، برای رسیدن به تعادل بلندمدت، تعدیل می‌شود و می‌توان بیان داشت که در بلندمدت، یک درصد افزایش در متغیرهای نیروی کار، بهره‌وری نیروی کار، نرخ رشد جمعیت، نسبت سرمایه‌گذاری به تولید ناخالص داخلی و انواع خدمات بهداشتی و درمانی (هزینه بهداشت، هزینه درمان، هزینه آموزش و نسبت بیمه)، به ترتیب باعث افزایش0/67، 1/77، 0/88، 1/12، 5/43، 3/02، 4/85 و 2/09 درصد در رشد اقتصادی می‌شوند. نتیجه‌گیری: باتوجه به نتایج بدست آمده از پژوهش، از آنجا که هزینه بهداشت در مقایسه با سایرخدمات بهداشتی و درمانی بیشترین اثر را بر رشد اقتصادی دارد؛ می‌تواند به برنامه‌ریزان و سیاست‌گذاران کلان کشور کمک نماید تا نگاه خود را به نحوه تخصیص هزینه‌ها در بخش بهداشت کشور تغییر دهند و بهداشت را نوعی کالای سرمایه‌ای به حساب آورند و در این زمینه بیشتر سرمایه‌گذاری کنند تا باعث رشد اقتصادی و توسعه کشور درآینده شود.
Introduction: One of the most important parameters for improving the level of GDP and economic growth in Iran is the role of the health services sector and its related indicators. In this regard, many studies have been conducted, but the effect of simultaneous separation types of health services on the economic growth of Iran has not been studied. It would be helpful for policymakers to study the health indices in order to recognize the health-care index that has the greatest impact on growth and prioritize it for investment. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of Types of health services on the economic growth of Iran. Methods: This study is causal analytical in terms of the method and it is also the applied research in terms of purpose. The method of data collection is documenting – library. For this analysis, Vector Autoregressive Model, Johansson - Juselius Method and Vector Error Correction Model are used. Data collected for the period of 1981 - 2017 Were estimated by Eviews software. Results: Based on the coefficient of the error correction method indicates that about 0.86 of the short-term imbalance is adjusted in each period to achieve the long-term equilibrium. Further, in the long run, a one percentage increase in the Labor force, labor productivity, population growth rate, ratio of investment to GDP and the of types health care services ( health costs, cost of treatment, cost of education and insurance ratio), leads to 0.67, 1.77, 0.88, 1.12, 5.43, 3.02, 4.85 and 2.09 percentage increase in the GDP, respectively. Conclusion: Health cost has the most effects on economic growth in comparison with other health care services. This result could help policymakers to modify their policies in allocation of expenditures in different sectors of health services and to highlight the investment in this field in order to achieve economic growth and development in the future.
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3- Camba‐Mendez G, Kapetanios G, Smith RJ, Weale MR. An automatic leading indicator of economic activity: forecasting GDP growth for European countries. The Econometrics Journal. 2001 Jun; 4(1):S56-90. doi: 10.1111/1368-423X.00053
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5- Fahimi AR. Estimation of medical care demand in Iran [Ms.c Thesis]. Tehran: Tehran University, School of Economic; 1994. [In Persian]
6- National Accounts Statistics Center of Iran.Retrieved From: www.Amar.Org.Ir
7- Bloom DE, Canning D, Sevilla J. The effect of health on economic growth: a production function approach. World development. 2004; 32(1):1-3. doi: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2003.07.002
8- Chakraborty S, Das M. Mortality, Human Capital and persistent inequality. Journal of Economic growth. 2005; 10(2): 159-92.
9- Li H, Huang L. Health, education, and economic growth in China: Empirical findings and implications. China Economic Review. 2009; 20(3): 374-87. doi: 10.1016/j.chieco.2008.05.001
10- Alam S, Sultana A, Butt MS. Does social expenditures promote economic growth? A multivariate panel counteraction analysis for Asian Countries. European Journal of Social Sciences, 2010; 14(1): 44-54.
11- Narayan S, Narayan PK, Mishra S. Investigating the relationship between health and economic growth: Empirical evidence from a panel of 5 Asian countries. Journal of Asian Economics, 2010; 21(4): 404-11. doi: 10.1016/j.asieco.2010.03.006
12- Hadian MO, Shojaee S, Rajabzadeh D. The Impact of health expenditure on the economic growth in IRAN (1980-2004). Journal of health administration, 2006; 9(24):39-44. [In Persian].
13- Salmani B, Mohammadi AR. Investigating effect of government health expenditure on Iran’s economic growth. Iranian Journal of Economic Research, 2009; 13(39): 73-93. [In Persian]
14- Asadi M, Nikooghadam M, Harati J. The Effect of Government Health Expenditures on Economic Growth in Selected Countries of Middle East & North Africa (MENA). Journal of Applied Economics, 2017; 7(21): 63-74. [In Persian]
15- Kweka JP, Morrissey O. Government spending and economic growth in Tanzania, 1965-1996. CREDIT Research Paper; 2000.
16- Blankenau WF, Simpson NB. Public education expenditures and growth. Journal of development economics, 2004; 73(2): 583-605. doi: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2003.05.004
17- Fölster S, Henrekson M. Growth effects of government expenditure and taxation in rich countries: a reply. European Economic Review, 2006; 50(1): 219-21. doi: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2005.02.007
18- Howitt P. Health, human capital, and economic growth: A Schumpeterian perspective. Health and economic growth: Findings and policy implications; 2005: 19-40.
19- Fatahi S, Soheil K, Reshadat S, Karimi P. The Relationship between Human Capital Health and Economic Growth in OPEC Countries (OPEC). Journal of Health Management, 2013; 3:37-51. [In Persian]
20- Andersen R, Newman JF. Societal and individual determinants of medical care utilization in the United States. The Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly. Health and Society, 1973; 51: 95-124. doi: 10.2307/3349613
21- Solow RM. A contribution to the theory of economic growth. The quarterly journal of economics, 1956; 70: 65-94. doi: 10.2307/1884513
22-Balia S, Jones AM. Mortality, lifestyle and socio-economic status. Journal of health economics, 2008; 27: 1-26. doi: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2007.03.001
23- Grossman M. On the concept of health capital and the demand for health. Journal of Political economy, 1972; 80: 223-55. doi: 10.1086/259880
24- Zhang Y, Wang R, Yao X. Assessing determinants of health care prepayment in China: Economic growth or government willingness? New evidence from the continuous wavelet analysis. The International journal of health planning and management, 2019; 34: 694-712. doi: 10.1002/hpm.2683
25- World Health Organization. WHO expert consultation on rabies: second report. World Health Organization; 2013.
26- Khanzadi A, Fatahi S, Moradi S. Analyzing the Effects of Public Sector Health and Treatment Expenditures on Economic Growth in Iran .Journal of the Macro and Strategic Policies, 2017; 5: 49-67. [In Persian]
27- Boussalem F, Boussalem Z, Taiba A. The relationship between public spending on health and economic growth in Algeria: Testing for co-integration and causality. International journal of business and management. 2014; 2(3):25.URL:http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sek:iacpro:0101004
28- Zuven M. Impact of Health Expenditure on Economic Growth: A Comparative Study of Developed and Developing Countries, 2014; 1: 1-44.
29- Segun OM, Adelowokan OA. Measuring the impact of public expenditure on economic growth in Nigeria. Journal of Social Science Studies, 2015; 2: 46-55. doi: 10.5296/jsss.v2i2.5626
30- Kouassi E, Akinkugbe O, Kutlo NO, Brou JB. Health expenditure and growth dynamics in the SADC region: Evidence from non-stationary panel data with cross section dependence and unobserved heterogeneity. International journal of health economics and management, 2018; 18: 47-66.
31- Isreal Akingba IO. Kaliappan SR, Hamzah HZ. Impact of health capital on economic growth in Singapore: an ARDL approach to cointegration. International Journal of Social Economics, 2018; 45: 340-56. doi: 10.1108/IJSE-12-2016-0376
32- Erçelik G. The relationship between health expenditure and economic growth in Turkey from 1980 to 2015. Journal of Politics Economy and Management, 2018; 1: 1-8.
33- Somé J, Pasali S, Kaboine M. Exploring the Impact of Healthcare on Economic Growth in Africa. Applied Economics and Finance, 2019; 6: 45-57. doi: 10.11114/aef.v6i3.4110
34- Olisakwe O. Public Health Expenditure, Economic Growth and Health Outcomes in Nigeria. Public Health, 2019; 6: 23-32. doi: 10.18488/journal.74.2019.61.23.32
35- Johansen S, Juselius K. Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 1990; 52(2): 169-210. doi: 10.1111/j.1468-0084 .1990.mp52002003.
36- Wenren C, Shang J, Pan J. Marginal conceptual predictive statistic for mixed model selection. Open Journal of Statistics, 2016; 6(2): 239-53.doi: 10.4236/ojs.2016.62021
37- Halada K, Shimada M, Ijima K. Forecasting of the Consumption of Metals up to 2050. Materials Transactions, 2008; 49(3): 402-10. doi: 10.2320/matertrans.ML200704
38- Kirchgässner G, Wolters J, Hassler U. Introduction to modern time series analysis. Springer Science & Business
Media; 2012.
39- Walter, E. Applied econometric time series. John Wiley & Sons; 2008.
40- Babaei MJ, Molaei MA, Dehghani A. Estimating the function of copper consumption in Iran Between 1991-2011 using Johansen model. Journal of Mining and Environment, 2015; 6(2): 183-9.
41- Babakhani M, Economic Development, Income Inequality and Health in Iran. Journal of Social Welfare, 2008; 7(28): 239-59. [In Persian]
42- Shojae SS, Jamali Gh, Manteghi, N. Identification of the Effective Elements on Human Resource Productivity. Journal of Research in Human Resources Management, 2016; 8 (24): 161-81. [In Persian]
43- Lotfalipour M, Falahi M, Borji M. The effects of Health Indices on Economic Growth in Iran. Journal of Management Health, 2012; 14 (46): 57-70. [In Persian]
44- Mojtahed A, Javadi pure S. Analysis of effect Health Ependiture on Economic Growth. Faslname‐ pajohesh ha ye eghtesadi, 2004; 6(19): 31‐54. [In Persian]
45- Rabiee M, Heidari S, Shariat Bahadori, M, Kani, S. The Impact of Health Indicators on Economic Growth: A case study of Developing and Developed countries. Journal of Economic, 2013; 13(7,8): 73-88. [In Persian]
46- Najjar Firoozjaee, M. The Position of the Insurance Industry in the Fnancing System. Journal of Economic, 2011; 11(5): 179-98. [In Persian]
47- Adu G. Studies on economic growth and inflation, 2012.
48- Cheong TS, Wu Y. Inequality and crime rates in China. University of Western Australia, Business School, Economics; 2013.
_||_1- Myrdal G. Political Element in the Development of Economic theory. Transaction Publishers; 1990.
2- Hosseinpour A. The Impact of Export Growth on Economic Sector Growth of Iran [Ms.c Thesis]. Mazandaran: University of Mazandaran, School of Economics & Administrative Science; 2010. [In Persian]
3- Camba‐Mendez G, Kapetanios G, Smith RJ, Weale MR. An automatic leading indicator of economic activity: forecasting GDP growth for European countries. The Econometrics Journal. 2001 Jun; 4(1):S56-90. doi: 10.1111/1368-423X.00053
4- Fazaeli AA. Estimation of demand for health services [Ms.c Thesis]. Tehran: Allameh Tabatabaei University, School of Economic; 2002. [In Persian].
5- Fahimi AR. Estimation of medical care demand in Iran [Ms.c Thesis]. Tehran: Tehran University, School of Economic; 1994. [In Persian]
6- National Accounts Statistics Center of Iran.Retrieved From: www.Amar.Org.Ir
7- Bloom DE, Canning D, Sevilla J. The effect of health on economic growth: a production function approach. World development. 2004; 32(1):1-3. doi: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2003.07.002
8- Chakraborty S, Das M. Mortality, Human Capital and persistent inequality. Journal of Economic growth. 2005; 10(2): 159-92.
9- Li H, Huang L. Health, education, and economic growth in China: Empirical findings and implications. China Economic Review. 2009; 20(3): 374-87. doi: 10.1016/j.chieco.2008.05.001
10- Alam S, Sultana A, Butt MS. Does social expenditures promote economic growth? A multivariate panel counteraction analysis for Asian Countries. European Journal of Social Sciences, 2010; 14(1): 44-54.
11- Narayan S, Narayan PK, Mishra S. Investigating the relationship between health and economic growth: Empirical evidence from a panel of 5 Asian countries. Journal of Asian Economics, 2010; 21(4): 404-11. doi: 10.1016/j.asieco.2010.03.006
12- Hadian MO, Shojaee S, Rajabzadeh D. The Impact of health expenditure on the economic growth in IRAN (1980-2004). Journal of health administration, 2006; 9(24):39-44. [In Persian].
13- Salmani B, Mohammadi AR. Investigating effect of government health expenditure on Iran’s economic growth. Iranian Journal of Economic Research, 2009; 13(39): 73-93. [In Persian]
14- Asadi M, Nikooghadam M, Harati J. The Effect of Government Health Expenditures on Economic Growth in Selected Countries of Middle East & North Africa (MENA). Journal of Applied Economics, 2017; 7(21): 63-74. [In Persian]
15- Kweka JP, Morrissey O. Government spending and economic growth in Tanzania, 1965-1996. CREDIT Research Paper; 2000.
16- Blankenau WF, Simpson NB. Public education expenditures and growth. Journal of development economics, 2004; 73(2): 583-605. doi: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2003.05.004
17- Fölster S, Henrekson M. Growth effects of government expenditure and taxation in rich countries: a reply. European Economic Review, 2006; 50(1): 219-21. doi: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2005.02.007
18- Howitt P. Health, human capital, and economic growth: A Schumpeterian perspective. Health and economic growth: Findings and policy implications; 2005: 19-40.
19- Fatahi S, Soheil K, Reshadat S, Karimi P. The Relationship between Human Capital Health and Economic Growth in OPEC Countries (OPEC). Journal of Health Management, 2013; 3:37-51. [In Persian]
20- Andersen R, Newman JF. Societal and individual determinants of medical care utilization in the United States. The Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly. Health and Society, 1973; 51: 95-124. doi: 10.2307/3349613
21- Solow RM. A contribution to the theory of economic growth. The quarterly journal of economics, 1956; 70: 65-94. doi: 10.2307/1884513
22-Balia S, Jones AM. Mortality, lifestyle and socio-economic status. Journal of health economics, 2008; 27: 1-26. doi: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2007.03.001
23- Grossman M. On the concept of health capital and the demand for health. Journal of Political economy, 1972; 80: 223-55. doi: 10.1086/259880
24- Zhang Y, Wang R, Yao X. Assessing determinants of health care prepayment in China: Economic growth or government willingness? New evidence from the continuous wavelet analysis. The International journal of health planning and management, 2019; 34: 694-712. doi: 10.1002/hpm.2683
25- World Health Organization. WHO expert consultation on rabies: second report. World Health Organization; 2013.
26- Khanzadi A, Fatahi S, Moradi S. Analyzing the Effects of Public Sector Health and Treatment Expenditures on Economic Growth in Iran .Journal of the Macro and Strategic Policies, 2017; 5: 49-67. [In Persian]
27- Boussalem F, Boussalem Z, Taiba A. The relationship between public spending on health and economic growth in Algeria: Testing for co-integration and causality. International journal of business and management. 2014; 2(3):25.URL:http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sek:iacpro:0101004
28- Zuven M. Impact of Health Expenditure on Economic Growth: A Comparative Study of Developed and Developing Countries, 2014; 1: 1-44.
29- Segun OM, Adelowokan OA. Measuring the impact of public expenditure on economic growth in Nigeria. Journal of Social Science Studies, 2015; 2: 46-55. doi: 10.5296/jsss.v2i2.5626
30- Kouassi E, Akinkugbe O, Kutlo NO, Brou JB. Health expenditure and growth dynamics in the SADC region: Evidence from non-stationary panel data with cross section dependence and unobserved heterogeneity. International journal of health economics and management, 2018; 18: 47-66.
31- Isreal Akingba IO. Kaliappan SR, Hamzah HZ. Impact of health capital on economic growth in Singapore: an ARDL approach to cointegration. International Journal of Social Economics, 2018; 45: 340-56. doi: 10.1108/IJSE-12-2016-0376
32- Erçelik G. The relationship between health expenditure and economic growth in Turkey from 1980 to 2015. Journal of Politics Economy and Management, 2018; 1: 1-8.
33- Somé J, Pasali S, Kaboine M. Exploring the Impact of Healthcare on Economic Growth in Africa. Applied Economics and Finance, 2019; 6: 45-57. doi: 10.11114/aef.v6i3.4110
34- Olisakwe O. Public Health Expenditure, Economic Growth and Health Outcomes in Nigeria. Public Health, 2019; 6: 23-32. doi: 10.18488/journal.74.2019.61.23.32
35- Johansen S, Juselius K. Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 1990; 52(2): 169-210. doi: 10.1111/j.1468-0084 .1990.mp52002003.
36- Wenren C, Shang J, Pan J. Marginal conceptual predictive statistic for mixed model selection. Open Journal of Statistics, 2016; 6(2): 239-53.doi: 10.4236/ojs.2016.62021
37- Halada K, Shimada M, Ijima K. Forecasting of the Consumption of Metals up to 2050. Materials Transactions, 2008; 49(3): 402-10. doi: 10.2320/matertrans.ML200704
38- Kirchgässner G, Wolters J, Hassler U. Introduction to modern time series analysis. Springer Science & Business
Media; 2012.
39- Walter, E. Applied econometric time series. John Wiley & Sons; 2008.
40- Babaei MJ, Molaei MA, Dehghani A. Estimating the function of copper consumption in Iran Between 1991-2011 using Johansen model. Journal of Mining and Environment, 2015; 6(2): 183-9.
41- Babakhani M, Economic Development, Income Inequality and Health in Iran. Journal of Social Welfare, 2008; 7(28): 239-59. [In Persian]
42- Shojae SS, Jamali Gh, Manteghi, N. Identification of the Effective Elements on Human Resource Productivity. Journal of Research in Human Resources Management, 2016; 8 (24): 161-81. [In Persian]
43- Lotfalipour M, Falahi M, Borji M. The effects of Health Indices on Economic Growth in Iran. Journal of Management Health, 2012; 14 (46): 57-70. [In Persian]
44- Mojtahed A, Javadi pure S. Analysis of effect Health Ependiture on Economic Growth. Faslname‐ pajohesh ha ye eghtesadi, 2004; 6(19): 31‐54. [In Persian]
45- Rabiee M, Heidari S, Shariat Bahadori, M, Kani, S. The Impact of Health Indicators on Economic Growth: A case study of Developing and Developed countries. Journal of Economic, 2013; 13(7,8): 73-88. [In Persian]
46- Najjar Firoozjaee, M. The Position of the Insurance Industry in the Fnancing System. Journal of Economic, 2011; 11(5): 179-98. [In Persian]
47- Adu G. Studies on economic growth and inflation, 2012.
48- Cheong TS, Wu Y. Inequality and crime rates in China. University of Western Australia, Business School, Economics; 2013.
