اثر عضویت در موافقت‌نامه‌های تجاری بر تراز تجاری دوجانبه کشاورزی ایران

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

الهام مهرپرور حسینی ¹ (دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، ایران)
حامد رفیعی ² (استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، ایران)
زینب رستم زاده ³ (دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، ایران)
میلاد امینی زاده ⁴ (دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، ایران)

تاریخ دریافت : 1400/05/06 تاریخ پذیرش : 1402/10/24 تاریخ انتشار : 1402/11/01

کلید واژه: نرخ ارز, الگوی جاذبه, ترازتجاری, موافقتنامه تجارت ترجیحی,

چکیده مقاله :

مقدمه و هدف: امروزه عضویت کشورها در موافقنامه‌های تجاری با تسهیل تجارت از راه مقررات‌زدایی، برچیدن مرزهای تعرفه‌ای و حمایتی، یکپارچه‌سازی هرچه بیشتر بازارهای ملی و منطقه‌ای و امکان دسترسی به بازارهای مختلف، فضای جدیدی را برای مسیر حرکت اقتصادی کشورهای مختلف گشوده است. اما با وجود تمام مزایای بیان شده برای موافقت‌نامه‌ها در تسهیل شرایط تجارت، وضعیت تعادل تجاری بین کشورها در بخش‌های مختلف اقتصادی در پی عضویت در توافقنامه‌ها روشن نیست.
مواد و روش­ها: از این‌رو، در این مقاله، تأثیر عضویت ایران در موافقتنامه‌های ترجیحات تجاری منطقه‌ای، نظام جهانی ترجیحات تجاری و سازمان همکاری‌های اقتصادی بر تراز تجاری دوجانبه بخش کشاورزی ایران با 45 شریک تجاری اصلی با استفاده از الگوی جاذبه در دوره زمانی 2017-2001 مورد بررسی قرار گرفت.
یافته­ ها: بر اساس نتایج، عضویت ایران در توافقنامه‌های تجاری به طور معنی‌داری موجب تضعیف تراز تجاری کشاورزی ایران شده است. همچنین، متغیرهای درآمد (997/0) و جمعیت شرکای تجاری (013/2)، پردرآمد بودن شرکای تجاری و مرز زمینی مشترک اثری مثبت و معنی‌دار و متغیرهای نرخ ارز (690/0-)، درآمد ایران (005/1-)، فاصله و بحران مالی جهانی اثری منفی و معنی دار بر تراز تجاری کشاورزی ایران داشته‌اند. 
بحث و نتیجه­گیری: پیشنهاد می‌شود که با توجه به معنی‌داری و تأثیر مثبت مرز زمینی مشترک، بازارهای کشورهای همسایه که از شباهت و نزدیکی بیشتری برخوردارند، در تقویت پیمان‌ها و اجرای استراتژی‌های تثبیت و توسعه بازار بیش از پیش مورد توجه قرار گیرند تا از این طریق امکان کاهش تعرفه‌ها و سایر هزینه‌های مبادله فراهم آید.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Nowadays, the membership of countries in trade agreements has opened a new space for the economic movement of different countries by facilitating trade through deregulation, dismantling tariff and support borders, increasing integration of national and regional markets, and access to different markets. But for all the benefits stated for agreements in facilitating trade conditions, the state of trade balance between countries in different economic sectors following membership in the agreements is not clear. Therefore, in this article, the effect of Iran's membership in the agreements, the Global System of Trade Preferences and the Organization of Economic Cooperation on her agricultural trade balance with 45 major trading partners using the Gravity model in the period 2001-2017 has been investigated. According to the results, Iran's membership in trade agreements has significantly diminished Iran's agricultural trade balance. Also, the variables of income and population of trading partners and common land border have positive and significant effect and variables of exchange rate, Iranian income, distance and global financial crisis have negative and significant effect on Iran's agricultural trade balance.

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