بررسی عوامل اثرگذار بر قیمت تمام‌شده مسکن در کلان‌شهرهای ایران با تاکید بر متغیرهای اعتباری

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای

اسداله الوندی زاده ¹ (دانشجوی دکتری رشتۀ اقتصاد بین‌الملل، واحد شیراز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، شیراز، ایران.)
عباس امینی فرد ² (استادیار گروه اقتصاد، واحد شیراز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، شیراز، ایران.)
هاشم زارع ³ (استادیار گروه اقتصاد، واحد شیراز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، شیراز، ایران.)
مهرزاد ابراهیمی ⁴ (استادیار گروه اقتصاد، واحد شیراز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، شیراز، ایران.)

تاریخ دریافت : 1399/12/23 تاریخ پذیرش : 1400/06/07 تاریخ انتشار : 1402/05/01

کلید واژه: مسکن, تسهیلات بانکی, متغیرهای اعتباری, نوسانات قیمت مسکن,

چکیده مقاله :

قیمت مسکن به عنوان یک کالای غیرمنقول تابع عوامل اعتباری است که میتواند بر نوسانات قیمت مسکن اثر بگذارد. هدف از انجام این پژوهش شناخت میزان و شدت تأثیرگذاری متغیرهای اعتباری تسهیلات رهنی بر شاخص قیمت مسکن در کلان شهرهای انتخابی طی سالهای 1389 تا 1399 می باشد، همچنین در چارچوب داده های تابلویی از روش رگرسیون گام به گام استفاده شده است. شناخت عوامل و متغییرهای تاثیرگذار بر قیمت مسکن، می تواند نقش بسزایی در تصمیمات اقتصادی مرتبط با مسکن و سیاست گذاری در این حوزه داشته باشد. در این تحقیق با بکار گیری روش های آماری و اقتصادسنجی و استفاده از مدل داده های تابلویی به بررسی عوامل اثرگذار بر قیمت تمام‌شده مسکن در کلان‌شهرهای ایران با تاکید بر متغیرهای اعتباری پرداخته شده است. این پژوهش از نظر هدف کاربردی و از نظر روش توصیفی ـ‌ تحلیلی است. بر اساس این مدل متغیرهای مؤثر بر قیمت مسکن در کلان شهرهای ایران به ترتیب اولویت عبارتند از: مبلغ تسهیلات مسکن، نسبت ارزش تسهیلات به بهای مسکن، نمره اعتباری متقاضیان تسهیلات رهنی، میانگین بازپرداخت اقساط، نرخ تورم و نرخ سود تسهیلات بانکی که ضرایب تمامی متغیرها به لحاظ آماری معنادار و هماهنگ با مبانی نظری است. نتایج تحقیق بیانگر آن است که مهمترین عامل تعیین کننده شاخص قیمت مسکن نرخ تورم با ضریب تأثیر 1.93 می باشد. شاخص نسبت ارزش وام به قیمت مسکن، مبلغ تسهیلات رهنی و نمره اعتباری اثر کاهنده بر شاخص قیمت مسکن دارند. به طور کلی هرچه نمره اعتباری متقاضیان تسهیلات در کلان شهر ها بالاتر، نرخ سود تسهیلات و نرخ تورم کمتر، مبلغ تسهیلات بیشتر و نسبت LTV بیشتر باشد، شاخص قیمت مسکن کمتر خواهد بود.

چکیده انگلیسی:

The price of housing as a real estate is a function of credit factors that can affect fluctuations in housing prices. The purpose of this study is to identify the extent and severity of the effect of credit variables of mortgage facilities on housing price index in selected metropolises during the years 1389 to 1399, also in the framework of panel data, stepwise regression method has been used. Understanding the factors and variables affecting housing prices can play an important role in economic decisions related to housing and policy in this area. In this research, by using statistical and econometric methods and using panel data model, the factors affecting the cost of housing in Iranian metropolises have been studied with emphasis on credit variables. This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of method. According to this model, the variables affecting the price of housing in Iranian metropolises are in order of priority: the amount of housing facilities, the ratio of the value of facilities to the price of housing, credit score of mortgage applicants, average installment repayment, inflation rate and interest rate of all bank facilities. The variables are statistically significant and in line with theoretical foundations. The results show that the most important factor determining the housing price index is the inflation rate with an impact factor of 1.93. The loan-to-housing ratio ratio, the amount of mortgage facilities and the credit score have a reducing effect on the housing price index. In general, the higher the credit score of facility applicants in metropolitan areas, the lower the facility interest rate and inflation rate, the higher the facility amount and the higher the LTV ratio, the lower the housing price index.

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