تحلیل و تبیین تاب‌آوری سکونتگاههای روستایی در برابر زلزله مورد: شهرستان شیراز
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای
سعیدرضا اکبریان رونیزی
1
(دانشیار دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران)
سعید نگهبان
2
(دانشیار دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران)
نرگس زارع
3
(کارشناس ارشد جغرافیا و برنامهریزی روستایی، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران)
کلید واژه: توسعه روستایی, زلزله, تاب‌آوری, شهرستان شیراز,
چکیده مقاله :
نواحی روستایی همواره با بلایای طبیعی مختلفی از جمله زلزله مواجه هستند. تاکنون برای مقابله با این بلای طبیعی در راستای کاهش اثرات و پیامدهای منفی آن، رویکردهای مختلف مطرح شده که از جمله آنها، تاب-آوری است. تاب‌آوری به عنوان یکی از مولفه‌های مهم در پایداری نواحی روستایی بیانگر ظرفیت برای پاسخ دادن به چالش‌ها یا آسیب‌ها در طول زمان می‌باشد. باید توجه داشت نخستین گام در فرآیند برنامهریزی و ارتقاء تاب‌آوری جوامع، شناخت وضعیت موجود تاب‌آوری آنها در برابر بلایا (زلزله) است تا از این طریق ضمن شناخت میزان تاب‌آوری جوامع روستایی، عوامل موثر در ارتقاء آن را شناسایی نمود. از این رو، در پژوهش حاضر به تعیین و تحلیل تاب‌آوری نواحی روستایی شهرستان شیراز در برابر زلزله پرداخته شده است. روش انجام پژوهش توصیفی تحلیلی و مبتنی بر روش پیمایشی و اسنادی می‌باشد. رویکرد غالب پژوهش پیمایشی و برخی از اطلاعات مورد نیاز با بهره‌گیری از روش اسنادی جمع‌آوری شده است. از لحاظ مکانی جامعه آماری این پژوهش روستاهای واقع در شهرستان شیراز و جامعه مورد تحقیق شامل ساکنان روستایی است. با توجه به معیار فاصله از گسل، تعداد جمعیت و توزیع فضایی، 10 روستا به عنوان روستاهای نمونه پژوهش و با استفاده از روش کوکران تعداد 340 خانوار به عنوان حجم نمونه پژوهش تعیین شدند. برای پردازش داده‌ها از روشهای آماری( توصیفی و استنباطی) و روش SAW استفاده شده است. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که تاب‌آوری نواحی روستایی مورد مطالعه در برابر وقوع زلزله در سطح پایینی قرار دارد(حد متوسط برابر147 و میانگین مشاهده شده برابر 95/134) و در بین روستاها از لحاظ ابعاد تاب‌آوری تفاوت معناداری وجود دارد. همچنین نتایج بیانگر وجود رابطه معنادار آماری بین وضعیت تاب‌آوری با متغیرهای زمینه‌ای(سن، شغل، تحصیلات، مدت سکونت و رضایت از سکونت در روستا) و با دو مولفه فاصله از شهر شیراز و تعداد امکانات و خدمات می-باشد.
Rural areas are always faced with various natural disasters, including earthquakes. So far, in order to deal with this natural disaster in order to reduce its negative effects and consequences, various approaches have been proposed, one of which is resilience. Resilience as one of the important components in the stability of rural areas expresses the capacity to respond to challenges or damages over time. Therefore, in the present research, the determination and analysis of the resilience of the rural areas of Shiraz County against earthquakes has been done. The research method is descriptive, analytical, and based on survey and documentary methods. The dominant approach is survey research and some of the required information has been collected using the documentary method. In terms of location, the statistical population of this research is the villages located in Shiraz County and the researched population includes rural residents. According to the criterion of distance from the fault, number of population and spatial distribution, 10 villages were selected as sample villages of the research and using Cochran's method, 340 households were determined as the sample size of the research. Statistical methods (descriptive and inferential) and SAW method have been used for data processing The results of the research showed that the resilience of the studied rural areas against the occurrence of earthquakes is at a low level(Test Value=147 & Mean=134.95) and there is a significant difference between the villages in terms of resilience dimensions. Also, the results indicate the existence of a statistically significant relationship between the state of resilience and contextual variables (age, occupation, education, length of residence and satisfaction with living in the village) and with the two components of distance from Shiraz city and the number of facilities and services.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Natural disasters can cause large and catastrophic losses, financial losses, as well as hamper social and economic development. They pose a threat to human society, natural systems, and large infrastructures. There are always natural disasters in rural areas, including earthquakes. To reduce the negative effects and consequences of this natural disaster, a number of approaches have been proposed, including resilience. Various approaches have been proposed to reduce the negative effects and consequences of this natural disaster, including resilience. An important component of rural stability is resilience, which is the ability to respond to challenges and damages over time. It is important to note that the first step in planning and improving the resilience of communities is knowing their current situation of resilience against disasters (earthquakes) to identify the effective factors in improving it, while also knowing the level of resilience of rural communities. Thus, the current study aims to investigate and analyze the earthquake-resilience of the rural areas of Shiraz County.
Methodology
The research method is descriptive, analytical, and based on surveys and documents. Some of the required information has been gathered using the documentary method in addition to survey research. In terms of location, the statistical population of this research is the villages located in Shiraz County, as well as rural residents. In this study, 10 villages were selected as sample villages based on distance from the fault, population, and spatial distribution. Using Cochran's method, 340 households were determined as the sample size. SAW method and descriptive and inferential statistical methods have been used for data processing.
Results and Discussion
According to the findings, economic resilience averages 2.64 with a standard deviation of 0.506. As a result of the study of economic resilience among the villages, Zafarabad village had the highest average value of 2.98 and a standard deviation of 0.484, while Mosqan village had the lowest average value of 2.31 and a standard deviation of 0. 44. The average value calculated for the socio-cultural resilience dimension is 2.87 with a standard deviation of 0.606. Zafarabad village has the highest average (3.17 with a standard deviation of 0.617) and Kafari village has the lowest average (2.58 with a standard deviation of 0.534). The average value of physical-infrastructural resilience is 2.61, with a standard deviation of 0.679. As a result of an examination of the physical resilience of infrastructure among the studied villages, Zafarabad village had the highest average value of 3.14, with a standard deviation of 0.646, and Kamarband Arandi had the lowest value of 2.09 and a standard deviation of 0.592. An average value of 2.84 with a standard deviation of 0.75 is calculated for the institutional dimension. The findings by villages indicate that the village of Saadatabad had the highest average resilience value (3.45 with a standard deviation of 0.686) and the village of It is Malekabad had the lowest average resilience value (2.17 with a standard deviation of 0.669).
Conclusion
The current study examined the physical, economic, social, cultural, and institutional dimensions of rural area resilience against the occurrence of earthquakes. As a result of the study, rural areas are not able to resist earthquakes to a high level, and in this regard, the results indicated significant differences in all dimensions when it comes to resilience among the rural areas studied. Nouri and Sepahvand (2015) found similar results to their research. It is aligned with Hassanvand (2016), Jahanshahi (2017), Norouzi (2018), and Badri et al (2018). Among the other topics examined was determining the type of relationship between the level of resilience and contextual variables, and a significant relationship was found between the level of resilience and the contextual variables (age, occupation, education, length of residence and satisfaction with living in the village), the age variable being the most significant. There was a type of inverse relationship in the variables of occupation, education, length of residence, and satisfaction with living in the village, which is consistent with the findings of Yu et al. In addition, the results related to the study of resilience and spatial factors showed that a significant inverse relation exists between resilience and distance from Shiraz city, and a direct and statistically significant relationship exists between facilities and services and resilience. Based on the resilience index, using the SAW method, the villages of Zafarabad and Malekabad ranked highest and lowest in the study rural areas. Based on the cluster analysis method, the villages of Zafarabad and Saadat Abad were stratified and determined to be level one in terms of earthquake resilience, while the villages of Qandlik, Kafari, Gorzakenu, Sabuk, Karehbas and Mosqan are level three and level two, respectively and third-level belts include Arandi and Malkabad.
Based on the obtained results, the following suggestions are presented for improving resilience and reducing earthquake risks:
Planning to improve resilience indicators, focusing on the economic dimension, which according to the research is the lowest level among the dimensions (improved indicators for the economic dimension).
- Increasing the level of awareness, knowledge and skills of the local community (before, during and after the earthquake) regarding the earthquake phenomenon and its effects and consequences (Physical, financial, etc.). Nevertheless, they have responded that they have not yet taken earthquake-related training courses, and based on this, it is essential to hold relevant courses.
-Planning in order to improve the quality of life in rural areas has led to an increase in social resilience, and the research has also shown that it has a significant relationship with earthquake resilience.
-Planning and providing facilities to encourage rural residents to obtain housing insurance, agricultural insurance, accident insurance, etc.
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