تأثير تغيير اقليم و کاربري اراضي بر خطر فرسايش خاک با استفاده از مدل RUSLE (مطالعه موردي: حوضه آبخيز گرگانرود)
محورهای موضوعی : مدیریت بهینه منابع آب و خاک
صالح آرخی
1
(دانشيار گروه جغرافيا، دانشکده علوم انساني، دانشگاه گلستان، گرگان، ايران.)
محمد برات زاده
2
(کارشناسي ارشد، مهندسي نقشه‌برداري، گروه نقشه‌برداري، دانشگاه لامعي گرگاني، گرگان، ايران.)
سید حسین روشان
3
(دانش‌آموخته دکتري علوم و مهندسي آبخيزداري، گروه مهندسي آبخيزداري، دانشکده منابع طبيعي، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزي و منابع طبيعي ساري، ساري، ايران.)
کلید واژه: هدر رفت خاک, تغييرات کاربري, ريزمقياس‌نمايي, مدل LARS-WG, حوضه گرگانرود,
چکیده مقاله :
زمينه و هدف: فرسايش خاک و اثرات ناشي از آن بر روي منابع کره زمين جزو موضوعات قابل توجه در بسياري از کشورها مي‌باشد. مهمترين اثرات فرسايش خاک از دست رفتن حاصل‌خيزي خاک، آلودگي آب‌ها، کاهش توليدات کشاورزي و کاهش عمر مفيد سدها مي‌باشد. هدف از مطالعه حاضر پيش‌بيني اثرات آينده تغيير اقليم و تغيير کاربري اراضي بر شدت و پتانسيل خطر فرسايش در حوضه آبخيز گرگانرود مي‌باشد. مقادير فرسايش با مدل RUSLE در سه سناريوي مختلف تغيير اقليم آينده، تغيير کاربري اراضي آينده و ترکيبي از تغيير اقليم و کاربري اراضي با مقادير فرسايش در دوره پايه مقايسه شد.
روش پژوهش: ابتدا آمار پارامترهاي هواشناسي (دما و بارش) ايستگاه‌هاي موجود در حوضه در دوره آماري 20 سال (2020-2001) تهيه شد و نرمال بودن، همگني و تصادفي بودن داده‌ها بترتيب با آزمون کلموگروف-اسميرنوف و ران تست بررسي شد. جهت رفع نواقص آماري نيز به روش رگرسيوني در محيط نرم افزار SPSS اقدام گرديد. ريزمقياس‌نمايي آماري داده‌هاي مدل گردش عمومي جو و توليد داده مصنوعي براي دوره آتي (2040-2021) با استفاده از سه سناريوي AIB, A2, B1 (به ترتيب خوشبينانه، بدبينانه و متوسط) در مدل LARS-WG بر اساس گزارش پنجم هيئت بين الدول تغيير اقليم و دو مدل HADCM3 و GFCM21 انجام شد. همچنين نقشه کاربري اراضي حوضه نيز با استفاده از تصاوير ماهواره‌هاي لندست ۷ و ۸ براي سال‌هاي 2001، 2010 و 2020 تهيه و از طريق پايگاهGoogle Earth ارزيابي شد. در نهايت با استفاده از مدل CA-Markov در نرم افزار ادريسي نسخه Selva تغييرات کاربري اراضي در آينده شبيه‌سازي گرديد. مقادير هدر رفت خاک براي دوره حال و تحت سناريوهاي تغييرات اقليم و کاربري نيز بر اساس مدل RUSLE محاسبه گرديد.
يافته‌ها: نتايج نشان داد ميزان فرسايندگي باران تحت تأثير سناريوهاي تابشي نسبت به دوره پايه افزاش مي‌يابد. همچنين تغييرات کاربري اراضي و پوشش نيز به سمت کاهش سطح مناطق جنگل انبوه و جنگل نيمه انبوه و افزايش مرتع و بوته‌زار و منطقه مسکوني خواهد بود. نتايج نشان داد که مقدار ميانگين فرسايش سالانه خاک در دوره پايه 41/96 تن در هکتار در سال مي‌باشد. مقدار فرسايش با در نظر گرفتن سناريوهاي تابشي A2، A1B و B1 به ترتيب 2 تا 4 درصد نسبت به دوره پايه افزايش خواهد يافت. با در نظر گرفتن کاربري اراضي شبيه‌سازي شده در سال 2040 ميلادي و سناريوي‌هاي تابشي A2، A1B و B1 مقدار فرسايش نسبت به دوره پايه به دليل کاهش پوشش طبيعي به ترتيب 5/7 درصد، 25/5 درصد و 73/1 درصد افزايش خواهد يافت.
نتايج: نتايج نشان داد که تغييرات کاربري اراضي بيشترين تأثير را در تغييرات ميزان فرسايش ايفا نموده است و لذا با مديريت صحيح پوشش مي‌توان روند افزايشي فرسايش حوضه آبخيز گرگانرود را مديريت کرد. بيشترين سهم کاربري در ايجاد فرسايش مربوط به کاربري جنگل نيمه انبوه با ميانگين 04/115 تن در هکتار در سال و کاربري جنگل انبوه بدون در نظر گرفتن مناطق مسکوني با مقدار ميانگين 39/51 تن در هکتار در سال کمترين سهم را دارد.
کليد واژه‌ها: هدر رفت خاک، تغييرات کاربري، ريزمقياس‌نمايي، مدل LARS-WG، حوضه گرگانرود
Introduction: Soil erosion and its impacts on the earth's resources are significant concerns in many countries. The most important effects of soil erosion are loss of soil fertility, water pollution, reduction of agricultural productions and reduction of dam’s useful life. The present study aims to predict the future effects of climate change and land use change on the soil erosion intensity and potential in the Gorganroud watershed. The erosion rates were compared with the RUSLE model in three different scenarios: future climate change, future land use change, and a combination of climate and land use changes for erosion rates in base period.
Methods: Initially, weather data (temperature and precipitation) from existing stations in the catchment area were collected for a 20-year statistical period (2001-2020). The normality, homogeneity, and randomness of the data were examined using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and run tests, respectively. To address statistical deficiencies, a regression method was employed in SPSS software. The statistical downscaled data from the general circulation model and synthetic data were generated for the future period (2021-2040) using the AIB, A2, and B1 scenarios (optimistic, pessimistic, and moderate, respectively) in the LARS-WG model based on the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and two models, HADCM3 and GFCM21. Additionally, the land use map of the catchment area was prepared using Landsat 7 and 8 satellite images for the years 2001, 2010, and 2020 and evaluated through Google Earth. Finally, the CA-Markov model in the IDRISI Selva software was used to simulate future land use changes. Soil loss values for the current period and under climate and land use change scenarios were also calculated based on the RUSLE model.
Results: The results showed that soil erosion rates increase under climate change scenarios compared to the base period. Land use changes and coverage will also shift towards a decrease in dense and semi-dense forest areas and an increase in pastures and residential areas. The results indicated that the average annual soil erosion rate in the base period is 41.96 tons per hectare per year. With the consideration of A2, A1B, and B1 scenarios, the erosion rate will increase by 2-4% compared to the base period. By considering the simulated land use in 2040 and the A2, A1B, and B1 scenarios, the erosion rate will increase by 7.5%, 25.5%, and 73.1%, respectively, due to the reduction in natural coverage.
Conclusion: The results showed that land use changes have the most significant impact on soil erosion rates, and therefore, proper management of cover can mitigate the increasing trend of soil erosion in the Gorganroud catchment area. The largest share of land use in creating erosion is related to semi-dense forest use with an average of 115.04 ton/ha/year and dense forest use without considering residential areas has the lowest share with an average value of 51.39 ton/ha/year.
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