بررسی روند توسعه کشاورزی و تغییرات کاربری زمین در استان قم با استفاده از فناوری سنجش از دور

محورهای موضوعی : Business Administration and Entrepreneurship

اشکان ابراهیمی وند ¹ , فرهاد هوشیاری پور ² , هادی رجبی ³

1 - دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم و تحقیقات، ایران
2 - دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشکده عمران، معماری و هنر، ایران
3 - شرکت توسعه منابع آب و نیروی ایران، تهران، وزارت نیرو، ایران

تاریخ دریافت : 1401/01/14 تاریخ پذیرش : 1401/04/04 تاریخ انتشار : 1402/05/01

کلید واژه: سنجش از دور, کاربری اراضی, استان قم, درخت تصمیم, حداکثر احتمال,

چکیده مقاله :

چکیده
مقدمه: تغییرات کاربری اراضی یکی از فاکتورهای مهم در تغییر جریان هیدرولوژیک حوضه و انهدام تنوع زیستی می باشد. در اینجا هدف اصلی از بررسی تغییرات کاربری، بررسی روند تغییرات الگوی کشت در بخش کشاورزی به عنوان بزرگترین مصرف کننده آب استان بوده است.
روش­: در این پژوهش با استفاده از تکنیک سنجش از دور و استفاده از دو روش طبقه بندی حداکثر احتمال و تصمیم گیری درختی، تغییرات کاربری اراضی استان قم در 30 سال گذشته بررسی شده است.
یافته ­ها: نتایج نشان می دهد که در روش حداکثر احتمال، سطح زیر کشت محصولات زراعی با 29 درصد افزایش از 81/30546 هکتار در سال 1368 به 39255 هکتار در سال 1398 رسیده است و در همین مدت سطح زیر کشت محصولات باغی از 57/3903 هکتار به 84/6306 هکتار رسیده است که رشدی 61 درصدی را نشان می دهد. در روش تصمیم گیری درختی، میزان افزایش سطح زیر کشت محصولات زراعی 34 درصد است  و سطح زیر کشت محصولات باغی نیز با افزایش 60 درصدی همراه بوده است.
نتیجه ­گیری: این افزایش سطح زیر کشت در یک استان با محدودیت های آبی بسیار که وابسته به منابع آب انتقالی از حوضه های مجاور است، می تواند یک هشدار برای تصمیم گیران و برنامه ریزان توسعه باشد.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Abstract
Introduction: Land-use change is an important factor in changing the hydrologic processes and biodiversity. It has significant environmental consequences at local, regional, and global scales. Although many studies have been conducted for revealing the land-use change worldwide, its impact on the hydrologic processes, water resources, water supply, and water consumption is poorly understood.
Methods: The present research is an effort to use remote sensing techniques for investigating land-use change in Qom province during the last three decades. Qom province, located in the west of the Dasht-e-Kavir desert with vulnerable water resources, has been subject of a rapid development process in recent decades so water resources require more attention. Here, Maximum Likelihood Classification (MLC) and Decision Tree Classification (DTC) were used to show the role of the classification method in the results.
Findings: The results showed that “drought” and “increasing number of farmers”, with an average score of 3.56 and 3.45 respectively on a scale of 1 to 5, are considered as the main causes of agricultural water conflict. From the farmers’ view, the priority for reducing water conflicts was the participation of farmers in managing water wells and negotiating with farmers around the water. On a scale of 13 to 65 with an average of 38.51, the perceived agricultural water conflict was at the medium level. By increasing farm distance from the well, area of agricultural rental land, and annual income from non-agricultural activities, the perception of agricultural water conflict increased. However, by increasing owned agricultural land area and agricultural income, the perception of agricultural water conflict decreased. The main strategy used by farmers to manage agricultural water conflict was “control”, in which coercion and force are used to manage conflict. The “problem-solving” and “avoidance” strategies were the second and third priorities respectively.

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