بررسی تاثیر توسعه اقتصادی بر تلفات ترافیک جادهای در کشورهای با درآمد بالا و متوسط با رویکرد گشتاورهای تعمیمیافته
محورهای موضوعی : مدیریت
1 - نویسنده مسئول، استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، واحد زنجان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، زنجان، ایران. آدرس پست الکترونیکی:
ashkan_rahimzadeh@yahoo.com
کلید واژه: نرخ بیکاری, شاخص توسعه انسانی, کلمات کلیدی: تولید ناخالص داخلی, تلفات ترافیک جادهای و روش گشتاورهای تعمیمیافته,
چکیده مقاله :
چکیدههدف این تحقیق بررستتی تاثیر توستتعه اقتصتتادی و توستتعه انستتانی بر تلفات ترافیک جادهای در دو گروهکشورهای با درآمد بالا و متوسط میباشد . دادهها در این تحقیق از مجموعه شاخص های توسعه بانک جهانی( WDI ( مربوط به دو گروه کشتتتورهای با درآمد بالا و متوستتتط که بر استتتاس گزارش ستتتازمان ملل2121 بهدستتتآمده استتت. - طبقهبندیشتتدهاند، در دوره زمانی 2111 با توجه به اینکه اطلاعات بهکار گرفتهشده در این تحقیق ناهمگون بوده از آزمون همجمعی پدرونی ا ستفاده شده ا ست. نتایج این آزمون دلالت برآن دارد که متغیرهای مدل در بلندمدت، با یکدیگر ارتباط دارند. نتایج برآورد مدل به روش گشتتتتاورهایتعمیمیافته ن شان میدهد در مجموعه ک شورهای منتخب با درآمد بالا، تأثیر متغیرهای تولید ناخالص داخلی،نرخ بیکاری و شتتتاخص توستتتعه انستتتانی بر تلفات جاده ای منفی و معنادار بوده در حا لی که در مجموعهکشتتورهای منتخب با درآمد متوستتط تأثیر متغیرهای تولید ناخالص داخلی ستترانه و نرخ بیکاری بر تلفاتجادهای مثبت و معنادار و تأثیر شاخص توسعه انسانی منفی و معنادار بهدستآمده است.
AbstractThe purpose of this research is to investigate the impact of economic development and human development on road traffic casualties in two groups of high- and middle-income countries. The data in this research is obtained from the World Bank Development Indicators (WDI) set for two groups of high- and middle-income countries classified according to the United Nations report, in the period 2000-2021. Due to the fact that the data used in this research is heterogeneous, Padroni's co-integration test was used. The results of this test indicate that the variables of the model are related to each other in the long run. The results of the estimation of the model by the method of generalized moments show that in the set of selected countries with high income, the effect of the variables of GDP, unemployment rate and human development index on road casualties was negative and significant, while in the set of selected countries with middle income the effect of the variables Gross domestic product per capita and unemployment rate have a positive and significant effect on road casualties, and a negative and significant effect of the human development index has been obtained.
منابع
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منابع
-Abrishmi, Hamid. Mehrara, Mohsen. Zamanzadeh Nasrabadi, Hamid, (2009), The relationship between oil shocks and the economic growth of OPEC member countries: Is this relationship asymmetrical? Quarterly Journal of Energy Economics Studies, No. 21, pp. 112-93.(Persian)
-Akinyemi, Y(2020), Relationship between economic development and road traffic crashes and casualties: empirical evidence from Nigeria. -Düzyol, S. G., Daibaşoğlu, K., & Üzümcüoğlu, Y. (2021). The relationship between HDI values and road traffic fatality rates. Nesne, 9(19), 42-51. DOI: 10.7816/nesne-09-19-04 .
-Kopits, E, Cropper, M (2003), Traffic Fatalities and Economic Growth, POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER
-Makian, Seyed Nizamuddin. Mustafavi, Seyyed Mohammad Hassan. Hatami, Razia. Dehghanpour, Mohammadreza, (2013), Investigating the effect of trade growth on human development growth in selected Asian countries: panel data approach, Quantitative Economics Quarterly (Former Economic Reviews), Volume 9, Number 1, Spring 2011, Pages 55-70.(Persian)
-Nofarsti, Mohammad, (1391), the root of unity and collectiveness in econometrics, Rasa Publishing House.(persian)
-Pedroni, P. (2005), “Panel Cointegration; Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests, with an Application to the PPP Hypothesis”, Indiana University Working Papers in Economics, No. 95-013, June.
-Ranjbar, Sadegh and Rostami, Mehdi. (2014). Investigating factors influencing the attraction of FDI in the oil and gas industry. Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Monthly, No. 123, pp. 25-29.(Persian)
-Research Institute of Statistics, Analytical Report on the Statistics of Road Accidents and Fatalities 98.(Persian)
-Wiebe, D. J., Ray, S., Maswabi, T., Kgathi, C., Branas, C. C., 2016. Economic development and road traffic fatalities in two neighbouring African nations. African Journal of Emergency Medicine 6, 80–86.World Health Organization. (2018a). Global Status Report on Road Safety 2018
-Wijnen, W., Rietveld, P., 2015. The impact of economic development on road safety: a literature review. In: Why Does Road Safety Improve When Economic Times are Hard? ITF/IRTAD, Paris, 22–42 -World Health Organization. (2018b, July 5). Disability-adjusted Life Years (DALYs)