تحلیل فضایی مزیت نسبی اشتغال درگروه‌های عمده شغلی استان‌های کشور طی سال‌های 85 و 90 90

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای

مهدی جوانشیری ¹ , حمید شایان ²

1 - دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی روستایی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران
2 - استاد گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی روستایی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

تاریخ دریافت : 1395/03/07 تاریخ پذیرش : 1396/05/17 تاریخ انتشار : 1396/08/01

کلید واژه: تحلیل عاملی, ضریب جینی, مزیت نسبی, مدل اقتصادپایه, تاپسیس و تحلیل رابطه خاکستری,

چکیده مقاله :

        برای تحقق اهداف برنامه­های توسعه کشور، هماهنگ نمودن اهداف ملی با واقعیت­های منطقه‌ای امری اجتناب‌ناپذیر می‌باشد. بر همین اساس، تخصیص منابع باید بر اساس توانمندی ها و مزیت‌های نسبی مناطق صورت پذیرد. لذا، هر منطقه متناسب با ویژگی­های خاص خود نیازمند برنامه­های ویژه‌ای است که لازمه هرگونه اقدامی در این زمینه نیز شناسایی وضعیت گذشته و موجود مناطق مختلف بر اساس روش­های علمی مناسب می‌باشد. مطالعه حاضر از نوع مطالعات کاربردی بوده که به روش توصیفی- تحلیلی نگاشته شده و داده‌های موردنیاز از نتایج سرشماری­های 1385 و 1390 از مرکز آمار ایران به ‌دست ‌آمده است. برای بررسی مزیت نسبی و شناسایی پایه­ای و غیر پایه­ای بودن گروه­های عمده شغلی بر اساس مدل اقتصاد پایه (شاخص ضریب مکانی) عمل شد. همچنین میزان عدالت توزیعی با استفاده از پرکاربردترین شاخص­های آماری در این زمینه یعنی منحنی لورنز و ضریب جینی محاسبه شد. سپس سطح‌بندی استان­ها بر اساس مدل تحلیل عاملی، تاپسیس و تحلیل رابطه خاکستری انجام شد و در نهایت نقشه­های جغرافیایی میزان مزیت نسبی انواع گروه­های عمده شغلی در محیط نرم‌افزار ARC GIS، در سطح کشور نیز ترسیم شد که قطعاً برای سیاست‌گذاری مناسب در زمینه توسعه منطقه‌ای ضروری می‌باشد. نتایج تحقیق نشان دهنده، توزیع فضایی بسیار متعادل اشتغال در بخش تأمین خدمات زیربنایی (ضریب جینی 0.018) و در بخش کار و کسب با ضریب جینی 0.353 بیشترین عدم تعادل را در بین استان‌های کشور وجود دارد؛ که نشان دهندة شکاف زیاد بین استان­های کشور و توسعه نامتعادل استان‌ها با توجه به شاخص‌های مورد استفاده است. بر این اساس استان­های بوشهر، تهران، مازندران و گیلان بالاترین امتیاز نسبی را کسب کردند و از امکانات بیشتری برای اشتغال‌زایی برخوردارند. در مقابل استان­های سیستان و بلوچستان، لرستان و خوزستان از امتیازات نسبی پایین‌تری برای اشتغال‌زایی برخوردارند.

چکیده انگلیسی:

       In order to fulfill the objectives of national development plans, coordination of national goals with the realities of the region is inevitable. Accordingly, resource allocation should be based on the capabilities and comparative advantages of the regions. so Every region needs a special plan which commensurate with its own characteristics. Therefore, we should first study the existing and past conditions of the region in a suitable scientific method. This study was an applied one conducted in a descriptive-analytical method. Data were collected from the census conducted by statistical Center of Iran in 2006, and 2011. For Determining Comparative Advantages and the identification of basic and non-basic occupational groups done According to basic economic model (Location Quotient). The amount of distributive justice was calculated using the most widely used statistical indicators in the field of the Lorenz curve and the Gini coefficient. The provinces were classified based on the model of factor analysis, TOPSIS, and Gray relational analysis. Finally, the geographic maps of the comparative advantage of the major occupational groups were developed in ARC GIS environment, at national level as well, which is essential for making appropriate policies about regional development. The results indicate, very balanced spatial distribution of employment in the provision of infrastructure services (Gini coefficient 0.018) and in the business sector with Gini coefficient is 0.353the greatest imbalance among provinces in the country's, the results showed a big gap between Iranian provinces and the unbalanced development of the provinces. Accordingly, the provinces of Bushehr, Tehran,Mazandaran and Gilan got the highest relative scores and enjoyed more facilities for job creation. On the contrary, the provinces of Sistan and Baluchestan, Lorestan and Khuzestan had relatively lower scores for job creation.

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