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  • اثرات جهانی شدن، رشد اقتصادی، توسعه مالی بر ردپای اکولوژیکی در ایران (تجزیه‌وتحلیل رگرسیون کوانتایل)

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آدرس مقاله


کد مقاله : JSDE-2307-1301 بازدید : 207 صفحه: 1 - 19

نوع مقاله: پژوهشی

اثرات جهانی شدن، رشد اقتصادی، توسعه مالی بر ردپای اکولوژیکی در ایران (تجزیه‌وتحلیل رگرسیون کوانتایل)

محورهای موضوعی : مدیریت محیط زیست

مریم محمدی نیا 1 , غلامرضا عباسی 2 , بیژن باصری 3 , رضا رحیمی 4

1 - دانشجوی دکتری توسعه اقتصادی، گروه علوم اقتصادی، واحد تهران مرکزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.
2 - استادیار گروه علوم اقتصادی، واحد تهران مرکزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران. *(مسوول مکاتبات)
3 - استادیار گروه علوم اقتصادی، واحد تهران مرکزی ، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی ، تهران، ایران
4 - استادیار گروه علوم اقتصادی، واحد تهران مرکزی ، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی ، تهران، ایران

تاریخ دریافت : 1402/04/17 تاریخ پذیرش : 1402/05/25 تاریخ انتشار : 1402/07/01

کلید واژه: ردپای اکولوژیکی, رشد اقتصادی, جهانی شدن, توسعه مالی, رگرسیون کوانتایل,

چکیده مقاله :

زمینه و هدف: رشد اقتصادی و توسعه مالی پیامد‌های نا‌گواری به‌خصوص در زمینه محیط‌زیست و منابع طبیعی به همراه داشته است، زیرا بیشتر فعالیت‌های اقتصادی در ارتباط تنگاتنگ با محیط‌زیست بوده و در حقیقت می‌توان بیان نمود که سرنوشت محیط‌زیست و رشد اقتصادی جوامع به یکدیگر وابسته است در مطالعه حاضر به بررسی اثرات جهانی شدن، رشد اقتصادی، توسعه مالی بر رد پای اکولوژیکی در ایران پرداخته شده است. روش بررسی: برای انجام این پژوهش از مدل رگرسیون کوانتایل و برای دوره زمانی 1400-1360 استفاده شد. این روش به‌تدریج به روش جامعی برای تجزیه‌وتحلیل آماری مدل‌های خطی و غیرخطی متغیرهای پاسخ، درزمینه های مختلف تبدیل گردیده است. یافته ها: بر اساس نتایج؛ در چارک‌های (پایین) اول و دوم؛ جهانی شدن اقتصادی، رشد اقتصادی، مصرف انرژی، توسعه مالی و تراکم جمعیت بر ردپای اکولوژیکی ایران اثر مثبت دارد و از چارک‌های سوم و چهارم به بعد شدت تأثیرگذاری آن بر ردپای اکولوژیکی ایران افزایش می‌یابد. به عبارتی شاخص‌های جهانی شدن، رشد اقتصادی و توسعه مالی در چارک اول (Q25) و دوم (Q50)، با ردپای اکولوژیکی ایران دارای یک همبستگی زمانی مثبت می‌باشد. سپس، با دور شدن مؤلفه‌های تأخر و حرکت به سمت چارک سوم (Q75) و چهارم (Q95)، همبستگی بین شاخص‌های مطالعه و ردپای اکولوژیکی ایران افزایش می‌یابد. بحث و نتیجه گیری: در کشور ایران به دلیل فراوانی انرژی و منابع طبیعی، قیمت انرژی پایین است که این امر موجب استفاده بیش‌از‌حد و نادرست انرژی شده است. اعطای تسهیلات بانکی با شرایط آسان، معافیت‌های مالیاتی و از این قبیل برای تولیدکنندگان وسایل گازسوز و برقی با راندمان بالای انرژی و متقابلا وضع مالیات‌های سنگین، عدم حمایت‌های مالی و عدم صدور مجوز برای تولید‌کنندگان وسایل انرژی بر با برچسب انرژی پایین، اعطای تخفیفات گمرکی برای واردات وسایل گازسوز با راندمان بالا و عدم اجازه ورود و یا حقوق گمرکی بالا برای واردات وسایل گازسوز با راندمان پایین می‌تواند در کاهش مصرف انرژی و ردپای اکولوژیکی مفید باشد.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Background and Objective: Economic growth and financial development have brought unfortunate consequences, especially in the field of environment and natural resources, because most of the economic activities are closely related to the environment, and in fact, it can be said that the fate of the environment and the economic growth of societies are dependent on each other. In this study, the effects of globalization, economic growth, and financial development on the ecological footprint in Iran have been investigated. Material and Methodology: Quantile regression model was used for this research and for the time period of 1360-1400. This method has gradually become a comprehensive method for statistical analysis of linear and non-linear models of response variables in different fields. Findings: Based on the results; in the first and second (lower) quadrants; Economic globalization, economic growth, energy consumption, financial development, and population density have a positive effect on Iran's ecological footprint, and from the third and fourth quarters onwards, the intensity of its influence on Iran's ecological footprint increases. In other words, the indicators of globalization, economic growth and financial development in the first quarter (Q25) and second quarter (Q50) have a positive temporal correlation with Iran's ecological footprint. Then, as the lag components move away and move towards the third (Q75) and fourth (Q95) quartiles, the correlation between the study indicators and Iran's ecological footprint increases. Discussion and conclusion: In Iran, due to the abundance of energy and natural resources, the price of energy is low, which has caused excessive and incorrect use of energy. Granting banking facilities with easy conditions, tax exemptions and such for producers of gas and electric appliances with high energy efficiency and imposing heavy taxes on the other hand, lack of financial support and lack of licensing for producers of energy-intensive appliances with low energy labels, granting customs discounts for Importing gas appliances with high efficiency and not allowing entry or high customs duties for importing gas appliances with low efficiency can be useful in reducing energy consumption and ecological footprint.

منابع و مأخذ:


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  1. Ahmad, N., Du, L., Lu, J., Wang, J., Li, H.-Z., & Hashmi, M. Z. (2019). Modelling the CO2 emissions and economic growth in Croatia: Is there any environmental Kuznets, curve? Energy, 123, 16172.
    2.
  2. Hill, C.W.L., 2007. International business : competing in the global marketplace, 7th ed.McGraw-Hill Irwin, New York.
    3.
  3. Mills, M. (2009). Globalization and inequality. European Sociological Review, 25(1), 1-8.
    4.


  1. Gygli, S., Haelg, F., Potrafke, N., Sturm, J.-E. (2019). The KOF Globalisation Index – revisited. Rev. Int. Organ. 14 (3), 543–574.
    2.
  2. Saud, S., Chen, S., Haseeb, A., Sumayya. (2020). the role of financial development and globalization in the environment: accounting ecological footprint indicators for selected one-belt-one-road initiative countries. J. Cleaner Prod. 250, 119518. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119518.
    3.


  1. Wen, J., Okolo, C. V., Ugwuoke, I. C., & Kolani, K. (2022). Research on influencing factors of renewable energy, energy efficiency, on technological innovation. Does trade, investment and human capital development matter?. Energy Policy, 160, 112718.
    2.


  1. Baloch, M.A., Zhang, J., Iqbal, K., Iqbal, Z. (2019). The effect of financial development on ecological footprint in BRI countries: evidence from panel data estimation. Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res. 26 (6), 6199–6208.
    2.


  1. Usman, M., Makhdum, M. S. A., & Kousar, R. (2021). Does financial inclusion, renewable and non-renewable energy utilization accelerate ecological footprints and economic growth? Fresh evidence from 15 highest emitting countries. Sustainable cities and society, 65, 102590.‏
    2.


  1. Doytch, N. (2020). The impact of foreign direct investment on the ecological footprints of nations. Environmental and Sustainability Indicators, 8, 100085. ‏
    2.
  2. Ahmed, Z., Wang, Z., Mahmood, F., Hafeez, M., Ali, N. (2019). Does globalization increase the ecological footprint? Empirical evidence from Malaysia. Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res. 26 (18), 18565–18582.
    3.


  1. Danish, Recep Ulucak, Salah Ud-Din Khan.(2019). Determinants of the ecological footprint: Role of renewable energy,natural resources, and urbanization, Journal Pre-proof, Sustainable Cities and Society, Published by Elsevier.
    2.
  2. Zhang, Y., & Wu, Z. (2021). Intelligence and green total factor productivity based on China’s province-level manufacturing data. Sustainability, 13(9), 4989.‏
    3.


  1. Ibrahim, R. L., Al-mulali, U., Ozturk, I., Bello, A. K., & Raimi, L. (2022). On the criticality of renewable energy to sustainable development: Do green financial development, technological innovation, and economic complexity matter for China? Renewable Energy, 199, 262-277‏.
    2.
  2. Danish, Syed Tauseef Hassan, Muhammad Awais Baloch, Nasir Mehmood, JianWu Zhang. (2019). Linking economic growth and ecological footprint through human capital and biocapacity, Journal Pre-proof, Sustainable Cities and Society, Published by Elsevier.
    3.


  1. Asıcı,‌‌Ahmet Atıl, Sevil,‌‌ Acar‌‌.(2018). How does environmental regulation affect production location of noncarbon ecological footprint, Journal of Cleaner Production,178, Contents lists available at ScienceDirect,pages 927-936.
    2.


  1. Meena, Ashvin Kumar. (2019). What is Ecological Footprint and Why is it Important? Agronomy, VOL. NO. XVIII, ISSUE NO. 01. Pegess 25-26.
    2.


  1. Topolewski, Ł. (2021). Relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in European countries: Evidence from dynamic panel data analysis. Energies, 14(12), 3565.‏
    2.
  2. Zhang, S., Luo, S., & Afshan, S. (2022). Role of climate technologies, financial development, and renewable energy in the facilitation of social, economic, and environmental goals. Renewable Energy, 199, 169-178.‏
    3.


  1. Ahmed, Z; Zhang, B; Cary; Z. (2021). Linking economic globalization, economic growth, financial development, and ecological footprint: Evidence from symmetric and asymmetric ARDL, Ecological Indicators.
    2.
  2. Hu, J., Wang, Z., Huang, Q., & Zhang, X. (2019). Environmental regulation intensity, foreign direct investment, and green technology spillover—An empirical study. Sustainability, 11(10), 2718.
    3.


  1. Uddin, G.A., Salahuddin, M., Alam, K., Gow, J.(2017). Ecological footprint and real income:panel data evidence from the 27 highest emitting countries. Ecol. Indicat. 77, 166–175.
    2.
  2. Parsashrif, Haditha, Amirnejad, Hamid, and Taslimi, Mehsa. (1400). Investigating factors affecting the ecological footprint of selected Asian and European countries. Agricultural Economics Research, 13(2), 155-172.
    3.


  1. Deliri, Hassan. (2019). The relationship between ecological footprint and economic growth in D8 countries: testing Kuznets' environmental hypothesis using the PSTR model. Economic Modeling Research, 10(39), 81-111.
    2.


  1. Tarzkar, Mohammad Hassan, Kargar Deh Bedi, Navid, Spongari Kanari, Reza, and Ghorbin, Efat. (2019). The effect of economic growth on environmental degradation in the Middle East region: the application of ecological footprint. Natural Environment (Natural Resources of Iran), 73(1), 77-90.
    2.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 








 

 

 

 

 




 

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