تحلیل نیمه‌کمی نامتقارن فازی ، منطبق بر استراتژی سازمانی مدیریت ریسک
محورهای موضوعی : مدیریت بازرگانیمحمد حسین صبحیه 1 , حسین اشکوه 2 , الناز علیون 3
1 - استادیار دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، گروه مدیریت پروژه و ساخت، تهران، ایران
2 - کارشناس ارشد مدیریت پروژه و ساخت
3 - کارشناس ارشد معماری
کلید واژه: ریسک, استراتژی, منطق فازی, تحلیل ریسک, تحلیل‌نیمه‌کمی نامتقارن,
چکیده مقاله :
مدیریت ریسک درچندین سال اخیر به بخشی لاینفک از مدیریت پروژه، به ویژه در پروژه های بزرگ و پیچیده تبدیل گشته، و استانداردها و دستورالعمل های متنوعی برای مدیریت بهینه ی آن تدوین گردیده است. با توجه به کاستی های تحلیل کمی در افزایش انعطاف پذیری و تسریع روند مدیریت ریسک، همچنین وابستگی تحلیل کیفی به برداشتهای زبانشناختی5 در تعیین اولویت ریسک ها، و عدم توجه رویکردهای موجود به استراتژی سازمانی در مدیریت ریسک، این مقاله با بهره گیری از منطق فازی در تحلیل برداشت های زبانی، چارچوبی جدید برای ارزیابی ریسک های پروژه بر مبنای تحلیل نیمه کمی نامتقارن فازی، منطبق بر استراتژی سازمانی، تدوین کرده، جهت شناسایی و کمی کردن رابطه ی بین مولفه های ریسک بر میزان شدت ریسک های پروژه ارائه می نماید. روش تحقیق بکاررفته از نوع کیفی بوده و داده های تحقیق براساس مشاهده، بررسی اسناد و مصاحبه درقالب مطالعه ی موردی از یک پروژه ی حفاری نفت جمع آوری گردیده است. جامعه ی آماری تحقیق مدیران ارشد و پروژه در صنعت نفت بوده است. نتایج تحقیق معین نمود، رویکردهای موجود در تحلیل کیفی ریسک، دیدگاه واقع گرایانه در اولویت بندی ریسک های مهم پروژه براساس شدت واقعی آنها نداشته، و لزوم کاربرد رویکرد مبتنی بر استراتژی سازمانی را مشخص نمود. 5- Linguistic
In recent years, risk management has become an inherent part of project management process, particularly in the large and complex projects.Various standards and procedures have been developed for its optimization.Because of short-comings in the quantitative analysis regarding increasing flexibility and speedy trend of risk management,also dependency of the qualitative analysis on linguistic variables in determining risk priorities, and not considering the organizational strategy in risk management, this paper,using fuzzy logic in analysis of linguistic variables,tries to develop a new framework for evaluating risk project based on fuzzy asymmetrical semi-quantilative analysis in accordance with organizational strategy,in order to identify and quantify the relationship between risk indices and their effects on risk projects.The research methodology was quantitative, and the data were collected through interview, observation in a case study of mining petroleum project. The statistical included senior managers in oil industry. The resultes showed that the current approaches in qualitative risk didn`t have a realistic attitude in prioritizing important risks. In the addition it showed that an approach based on organizational strategy is necessary.
Ashokh H., & Yazdanpanah A., (2008). Modeling of Risk Management and Decision Analysis in Oil Exploration Projects. The 4th International Project Management Conference, (In Persian).
Azar A., & Faraji H. (2007). Fuzzy Management Science. Tehran: Mehraban Publishing, (In Persian).
Bojadziev, G. Bojadziev, M. (2006) “Fuzzy logic for business, finance, and management”, World Scientific, 2dn Ed.
Camprieu, R.D. Desdiens, Jacques. Feixue, Yang. (2007) “Cultural differences in project risk perception: An empirical comparison of China and Canada” , International Journal of Project Management, 25, 683-693
Carr, V. Tah, J.H.M. (2001) “A fuzzy approach to construction project risk assessment and analysis: construction project risk management system “Advances in Engineering Software, 32, 847-857
Chapman, C.B. and Ward, S.C. (2004) “Why risk efficiency is a key aspect of best practice projects” International Journal of Project Management, 22, 619-632
Chapman, C.B. and Ward, S.C. (1997) “Project Risk Management: Processes, Techniques and insights” John Wiley & Sons.
Construction Industry Research and Information Association (CIRIA). Managing project change, a best practice guide, (2001).
Cooper, F. Grey, S. Raymond and Walker, P. (2005), “Project Risk Management Guidelines”, John Wiley & Sons.
Kartam Office of Statewide Project Management Improvement (OSPMI), “ Project Risk Management Handbook”, Second Edition, May 2, (2007), Sacramento, CA 95814
Kerzner, H. (2007) “Project Management: A Systems Approach to Planning, Scheduling, and Controlling”, John Wiley & Sons, nine Edition.
Lam, K.C. Wang, D. et al (2007) “Modeling risk allocation decision in construction contracts” , International Journal of Project Management, 25, 485-493
Motawa, I.A. Anumba, C.J. El-Hamalawi, A. (2006) “A fuzzy system for evaluating the risk of change in construction projects”, Advances in Engineering Software, 37, 583-591
Project Management Institute (2008) “A guide to the project management body of knowledge: PMBOK guide.” 4th ed. p. cm.
Seung H. Han, Du Y. Kim, Hyungkwan Kim, & Won-Suk Jang, (2008) “A Web-based Integrated System for International Project Risk Management”, Automation in construction, 17, 342-356
Standards Australia and Standards New Zealand (2004), “Risk Management Guidelines”, companion to AS/NZS 4360:2004, Sydney, NSW.
Turner J R (1999) “The Handbook of Project-Base Management: Improving the Processes for Achieving Strategic Objectives” McGraw-Hill England.
Webb, A. (2003) “The Project Manager’s Guide to Handling Risk” , Gower
Zadeh, LA. (1965) “Fuzzy sets” Inform Ctrl, 8:338-53.
_||_Ashokh H., & Yazdanpanah A., (2008). Modeling of Risk Management and Decision Analysis in Oil Exploration Projects. The 4th International Project Management Conference, (In Persian).
Azar A., & Faraji H. (2007). Fuzzy Management Science. Tehran: Mehraban Publishing, (In Persian).
Bojadziev, G. Bojadziev, M. (2006) “Fuzzy logic for business, finance, and management”, World Scientific, 2dn Ed.
Camprieu, R.D. Desdiens, Jacques. Feixue, Yang. (2007) “Cultural differences in project risk perception: An empirical comparison of China and Canada” , International Journal of Project Management, 25, 683-693
Carr, V. Tah, J.H.M. (2001) “A fuzzy approach to construction project risk assessment and analysis: construction project risk management system “Advances in Engineering Software, 32, 847-857
Chapman, C.B. and Ward, S.C. (2004) “Why risk efficiency is a key aspect of best practice projects” International Journal of Project Management, 22, 619-632
Chapman, C.B. and Ward, S.C. (1997) “Project Risk Management: Processes, Techniques and insights” John Wiley & Sons.
Construction Industry Research and Information Association (CIRIA). Managing project change, a best practice guide, (2001).
Cooper, F. Grey, S. Raymond and Walker, P. (2005), “Project Risk Management Guidelines”, John Wiley & Sons.
Kartam Office of Statewide Project Management Improvement (OSPMI), “ Project Risk Management Handbook”, Second Edition, May 2, (2007), Sacramento, CA 95814
Kerzner, H. (2007) “Project Management: A Systems Approach to Planning, Scheduling, and Controlling”, John Wiley & Sons, nine Edition.
Lam, K.C. Wang, D. et al (2007) “Modeling risk allocation decision in construction contracts” , International Journal of Project Management, 25, 485-493
Motawa, I.A. Anumba, C.J. El-Hamalawi, A. (2006) “A fuzzy system for evaluating the risk of change in construction projects”, Advances in Engineering Software, 37, 583-591
Project Management Institute (2008) “A guide to the project management body of knowledge: PMBOK guide.” 4th ed. p. cm.
Seung H. Han, Du Y. Kim, Hyungkwan Kim, & Won-Suk Jang, (2008) “A Web-based Integrated System for International Project Risk Management”, Automation in construction, 17, 342-356
Standards Australia and Standards New Zealand (2004), “Risk Management Guidelines”, companion to AS/NZS 4360:2004, Sydney, NSW.
Turner J R (1999) “The Handbook of Project-Base Management: Improving the Processes for Achieving Strategic Objectives” McGraw-Hill England.
Webb, A. (2003) “The Project Manager’s Guide to Handling Risk” , Gower
Zadeh, LA. (1965) “Fuzzy sets” Inform Ctrl, 8:338-53.