تحلیل آسیب پذیری و شناسایی پهنه های سیل خیز استان کرمانشاه
محورهای موضوعی : مدیریت بحران
وحید خسروی
1
*
,
اصغر محمدمرادی
2
,
سیدباقر حسینی
3
1 - دانشکده معماری و شهرسازی، دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران، تهران، ایران
2 - مدیر گروه مرمت دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران، تهران، ایران
3 - دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایرانتهران، دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران، دانشکده معماری و شهرسازی
کلید واژه: آسیب¬پذیری, پهنه¬های سیل¬خیز, کرمانشاه, تحلیل سلسله مراتبی,
چکیده مقاله :
سیلاب در حال حاضر یکی از سوانح طبیعی است که خسارت مالی و جانی زیادی در جهان به همراه دارد. با توجه به اینکه استان کرمانشاه در معرض خطر سیل قرار دارد، ضرورت شناسایی و پهنه¬بندی آسیب¬پذیری سیل بیش‌ازپیش موردتوجه قرار گرفته است. بنابراین هدف اصلی این پژوهش شناسایی و پهنه¬بندی مناطق سیل¬خیز استان کرمانشاه است. روش تحلیل این پژوهش مبتنی بر روش تحلیل سلسله مراتبی (AHP) در محیط سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی (ArcGIS) بوده است. کاربری اراضی و فاصله از رودخانه شناسایی‌شده است. پس از وزن دهی عوامل و همپوشانی لایه¬ها، نقشه پهنه¬بندی خطر سیل در استان کرمانشاه تهیه شد. بدین منظور مهم‌ترین عوامل مؤثر در ایجاد سیل شامل شیب، توپوگرافی استان، تراکم شبکه زهکشی، بارش، زمین¬شناسی، پوشش گیاهی، فرسایش خاک، یافته¬¬های پژوهش نشان می¬دهد که نواحی مرکزی استان کرمانشاه از وضعیت وقوع خطر سیل بیشتری نسبت به نواحی دیگر برخوردار است. همچنین نواحی شمال غربی به سمت جنوب به دلیل پوشش گیاهی مناسب از کمترین میزان وقوع سیل برخوردار بوده است. نتایج پژوهش نشان می¬دهد که 24 درصد استان، در معرض آسیب¬پذیری بسیار زیاد، 15.8 درصد آسیب¬پذیری زیاد، 11.6 درصد آسیب¬¬پذیری متوسط، 30.7 درصد آسیب¬¬پذیری کم و 17.9 درصد آسیب¬پذیری خیلی کم قرار دارد. بنابراین توجه به حریم رودخانه، جلوگیری از تغییر کاربری اراضی و مهار آب از طریق طرح¬های آبخیزداری از مهم¬ترین پیشنهاد این پژوهش است.
The flood accident is currently one of the natural disasters that causes a lot of financial and human losses in the world. Due to the fact that Kermanshah province is at risk of flooding, the necessity of identifying and zoning flood vulnerability has been more and more taken into consideration. Therefore, the main goal of this research is to identify and zone the flood-prone areas of Kermanshah province. The analysis method of this research was based on the analysis hierarchy method (AHP) in the geographic information system (ArcGIS) environment. Land use and distance from the river have been identified. After weighting the factors and overlaying the layers, a flood risk zoning map was prepared in Kermanshah province. For this purpose, the most important factors in causing floods include the slope, topography of the province, density of the drainage network, rainfall, geology, vegetation, soil erosion, the findings of the research show that the central areas of Kermanshah province have a higher risk of flooding than other areas. Also, the northwest to the south areas have the least amount of flooding due to proper vegetation cover. The results of the research show that 24% of the province is exposed to very high vulnerability, 15.8% to high vulnerability, 11.6% to moderate vulnerability, 30.7% to low vulnerability and 17.9% to very low vulnerability. has it. Therefore, paying attention to the river boundary, preventing land use change and water containment through watershed management plans is the most important suggestion of this research.
Bates, P. D., Quinn, N., Sampson, C., Smith, A., Wing, O., Sosa, J., ... & Krajewski, W. F. (2021). Combined modeling of US fluvial, pluvial, and coastal flood hazard under current and future climates. Water Resources Research, 57(2), e2020WR028673.
Billi, P., Alemu, Y.T. & Ciampalini, R. Increased frequency of flash floods in Dire Dawa, Ethiopia: Change in rainfall intensity or human impact?. Nat Hazards 76, 1373–1394 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1554-0
Chen Y, Wang D, Zhang L, Guo H, Ma J, Gao W. Flood risk assessment of Wuhan, China, using a multi-criteria analysis model with the improved AHP-Entropy method. Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Sep;30(42):96001-96018. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-29066-8. Epub 2023 Aug 10. PMID: 37561303. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37561303/
Courty, L., Rico-Ramirez, M., Pedrozo-Acuna, ˜ A., (2018). The significance of the spatial variability of rainfall on the numerical simulation of urban floods. Water 10, 207, https://doi.org/10.3390/w10020207
CRED (2012) Disaster data: a balanced perspective, Report 299. Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. http://cred.epid.ucl.ac.be/f/CredCrunch29.pdf.
Darabi, H., Haghighi, A.T., Mohamadi, M.A., Rashidpour, M., Ziegler, A.D.,
Hekmatzadeh, A.A., Kløve, B., (2020). Urban flood risk mapping using data-driven geospatial techniques for a flood-prone case area in Iran. Nord. Hydrol 51 (1), 127–142. https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2019.090.
Eini, M., Kaboli, H.S., Rashidian, M. and Hedayat, H., (2020). Hazard and vulnerability in urban flood risk mapping: Machine learning techniques and considering the role of urban districts. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,50,101687.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.1016 87.
European Commission (EC), (2007). Directive 2007/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October, 2007 on the assessment and management of flood risks. Off. J. Eur. Union L288, 27–34.
Ghahroodi Tali, Manijeh, Tharvati, Mohammadreza, Sarafi, Mozafar, Pourmusoi, Saidmusi, and Darfashi, Khe Bat. (2011). Evaluation of flood vulnerability in Tehran city. Scientific Journal of Rescue and Relief, 4(3), 79-92. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/190916/fa. [Persian]
Ghurbanzadeh, Muhadeseh; Azarakhshi, Maryam; Mosaedi, Abolfazl and Rostami Khalaj, Mohammad. (2016). Investigating the effectiveness of the AHP method in determining urban flood prone areas (case study: the central part of Torbat Heydarieh city). Natural Geography Research 49(4); 645-656. doi: 10.22059/jphgr.2018.231371.1007037. [Persian]
Goodarzi M, Fatehifar A. (2019) Flood risk zoning due to climate change under RCP 8.5 scenario using hydrologic model SWAT in Gis (Azarshahr basin). jgs 2019; 19 (53) :99-117 http://jgs.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3056-fa.html. [Persian]
Haynes K, 2017, 'An analysis of building losses and human fatalities from natural disasters', reported in 'Where, why and how are Australians dying in floods?', accessed 27 August 2020.
Khaki, Vida and Toulabi, Reza. (2022). History of floods in Iran and investigation of its prevention methods (case example: Shiraz flood). The second international conference on architecture, civil engineering, urban planning, environment and horizons of Islamic art. Tabriz. https://civilica.com/doc/1613297/. [Persian]
Khaledi, S., Farahmand, G., Ali Bakhshi, A. (2021). Vulnerability analysis and zoning of natural geomorphological hazards (Flood and earthquake) of Kermanshah province. Journal of Sustainable Urban & Regional Development Studies (JSURDS), 2(1), 17-36. https://www.srds.ir/article_132471.html. [Persian]
Khodaei, Ali and Zandi, Rahman. (2022). Flood risk zoning based on multi-criteria decision making and neural network model, case study: Khodaafrin watershed. Watershed Engineering and Management, 14(4), 549-562. doi: 10.22092/ijwmse.2022.357041.19. [Persian]
Koozegar Koleji, Lotfa Ali; Rahmati, Nooruddin and Ismailzadeh Kowaki, Ali. (2022). Spatial analysis of vulnerability of land uses against floods (case study: Raz city, North Khorasan province). Sustainable development of geographical environment, 4(6), 144-157. doi: 10.52547/sdge.4.6.144. [Persian]
Lu, F., Song, X., Xiao, W., Zhu, K., & Xie, Z. (2020). Detecting the impact of climate and reservoirs on extreme floods using nonstationary frequency models. Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment, 34, 169-182.
Manning, J.G., Ludlow, F., Stine, A.R. et al. Volcanic suppression of Nile summer flooding triggers revolt and constrains interstate conflict in ancient Egypt. Nat Commun 8, 900 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00957-y
Mishra, K., & Sinha, R. (2020). Flood risk assessment in the Kosimegafan using
multi-criteria decision analysis: A hydro-geomorphic approach. Geomorphology, 350, 106861. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2019.106861
Mohammaddoost, Adel and Shamsnia, Seyyed Amir. (2023). Identification and zoning of flood-prone areas using GIS-AHP (case study: Deir city, Bushehr province). Geography and Urban and Regional Studies, 12(47), 152-167. Dor: 20.1001.1.20087845.1402.12.47.9.5. [Persian]
Mohammadi Ostadkalaye, Amin; Mosaedi, Abolfazl and al-Hashim, Sina. (2007). Investigating the effects of August 1380 flood in East Golestan on the morphology of Madersu River. Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, 14, 9-17. https://sid.ir/paper/8980/fa. [Persian]
Mokhtari Heshi, Hossein and Rahimi, Dariush. (2015). Flood risk zoning in human and economic centers of South Khorasan province using fuzzy logic. Geography and Environmental Planning, 27(1), 199-216. doi: 10.22108/gep.2016.21366. [Persian]
Pathan, A. I., Girish Agnihotri, P., Said, S., & Patel, D. (2022). AHP and TOPSIS based flood risk assessment- a case study of the Navsari City, Gujarat, India. Environmental monitoring and assessment, 194(7), 509. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-022-10111-x
Preeti Ramkar & Sanjaykumar M. Yadav, (2021). "Flood risk index in data-scarce river basins using the AHP and GIS approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(1), pages 1119-1140, October. DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04871-xSchmitt, T.G., Thomas, M., & Ettrich, N. (2004). Analysis and modeling of flooding in urban drainage systems. Journal of Hydrology, 299, 300-311. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.08.012
Rajabi, Masoumeh; Hejazi, Mir Asadullah; Roostaei, Shahram and Aali, Negin. (2017). Vulnerability zoning of natural and geomorphological hazards in rural settlements of Saghez city (flood and earthquake case study). Quantitative Geomorphology Research, 7(2), 183-195. 20.1001.1.22519424.1397.7.2.10.6. [Persian]
Rajabizadeh, Yusef; Ayubzadeh, Seyed Ali and Qomshi, Mehdi. (2018). Investigating the flood of Khuzestan province during the water year 2017-2018 and presenting its control and management solutions in the future. Ecohydrology, 6(4), 1069-1084. doi: 10.22059/ije.2020.285854.1166. [Persian]
Saiedi Mofard, Sanaz and Asiai, Mehdi. (2019). Flood risk zoning in Sabzevar city using fuzzy logic. Urban and Regional Development Planning Quarterly, 5(15), 27-49. doi: 10.22054/urdp.2021.61580.1348. [Persian]
Salehi, Esmail; Rafiei, Yusef; Farzadbehtash, Mohammad Reza and Agha Babaei, Mohammad Taghi. (2012). Urban flood risk zoning using GIS and fuzzy hierarchical analysis process (case study: Tehran). Ecology, 39(3 (ser. 67)), 179-188. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/396893/fa. [Persian]
Soleimani, Karim and Darvishi, Shadman. (2019). Zoning and flood risk monitoring in spring 2018 in Khuzestan using Landsat-8 data. Ecohydrology, 7(3), 647-662. doi: 10.22059/ije.2020.302703.1333. [Persian]
Sundermann L, Schelske O and Hausmann P (2014) Mind the risk A global
ranking of cities under threat from natural disasters. Swiss Re. swissre.com/dam/
jcr:1609aced-968f-4faf-beeb-96e6a2969d79/Swiss_Re_Mind_the_risk.pdf.
Supratman, M., Kusuma, M. S. B., Cahyono, M., & Kuntoro, A. A. (2024). Flood risk assessment of Kemang Area as a central business in South Jakarta. In E3S Web of Conferences (Vol. 479, p. 03003). EDP Sciences. DOI: 10.1051/e3sconf/202447903003
Taher, Seyyedah Muhadeseh and Mosaedi, Abulfazl. (2023). An overview of flood risk management strategies and legal and practical challenges. Water and Sustainable Development, 10(3), 35-50. doi: 10.22067/jwsd.v10i3.2309-127. [Persian]
UNISDR, CRED, (2015). The human cost of weather-related disasters 1995-2015, UNISDR Mishra, K., & Sinha, R. (2019). Flood risk assessment in the Kosi megafan using multi-criteria decision analysis: A hydro-geomorphic approach. Geomorphology, 106861. doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2019.106861
Wallemacq, P ., Guha-Sapir, D ., & McClean, D (2015). The Human Cost of Natural Disasters - A global perspective.
Zeleňáková, M., Fijko, R., Labant, S., Weiss, E., Markovič, G., Weiss, R. (2019): Flood risk modelling of the Slatvinec stream in Kružlov village, Slovakia. Journal of Cleaner Production 212, 109–118. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.12.008
Zhang, K., Shalehy, M. H., Ezaz, G. T., Chakraborty, A., Mohib, K. M., & Liu, L. (2022). An integrated flood risk assessment approach based on coupled hydrological-hydraulic modeling and bottom-up hazard vulnerability analysis. Environmental Modelling & Software, 148, 105279. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105279.