اولویت‌بندی توسعه پایدار زیرساخت‌های راهبردی با استفاده از روش فرآیند تحلیل سلسله مراتبی: مطالعه موردی کشور ایران
محورهای موضوعی : منابع طبیعی و مخاطرات محیطیبابک نبی زاده 1 , سامان سلیمانیان 2
1 - نیروهای مسلح جمهوری اسلامی ایران
2 -
کلید واژه: توسعه پایدار, تحلیل سلسله مراتبی, ایران,
چکیده مقاله :
مقدمه: اهمیت حرکت جهانی بسوی توسعه پایدار در سال‌های گذشته افزایش یافته است و ضروری است که در هر کشور مفهوم توسعه تحت چهارچوبی که نیاز‌های حال و آینده آن ملت را فرآهم آورد، بازتعریف شود. از این رو، هدف این پژوهش این است که در یک حیطه مشخص و بر اساس یک الگویی کاربردی سه زیر زیرساخت راهبردی و حائز اهمیت شبکه سراسری توزیع برق، شبکه آب‌رسانی و شبکه توزیع سوخت‌های فسیلی را اولویت‌بندی کند. مواد و روش‌ها: این پژوهش با کاربرد روش جامع تصمیم‌گیری چند معیاره تحلیل سلسله مراتبی (AHP)، بر اساس تجربیات بدست آمده در طراحی، اجرا و بهره‌برداری زیرساخت‌های راهبردی و با نظرسنجی از ۱۲ نفر خبره، زیرساخت‌های مورد بررسی را به نسبت چهار معیار اقتصادی، اجتماعی، محیط‌زیستی و فنی به همراه ۱۰ لایه زیرمعیار هزینه سرمایه‌گذاری و ساخت، هزینه نگهداری، اشتغال زایی، پذیرش و نرخ مشارکت عمومی، آلودگی آب، خاک و هوا، کیفیت نهایی، بازدهی فنی و آموزش نیروی متخصص اولویت‌بندی کرده است. نتایج و بحث: نتایج نشان داد که در بررسی ابعاد توسعه پایدار، معیار محیط زیستی با وزن 30/0 بیشترین اولویت را دارد و پس از آن نیز معیار فنی با وزن 24/0 می‌باشد. معیار‌های اجتماعی و اقتصادی نیز به ترتیب با اوزان 224/0 و 223/0 در جایگاه‌های بعدی قرار گرفتند. همچنین شبکه توزیع سوخت با وزن 026/0 بالاترین اهمیت را در توسعه پایدار زیرساخت‌ها داشت. اولویت دوم را شبکه توزیع سراسری برق با وزن 0252/0 و سومین اولویت را نیز با وزن 251./. شبکه آب‌رسانی داشتند. در ادامه بررسی وزن جایگزین‌های اولویت‌بندی زیرساخت‌های استراتژیک هدف برپایه معیار‌های اصلی نشان داد که شبکه آب‌رسانی در معیار‌های اقتصادی و محیط زیستی به ترتیب با اوزان 27/0 و 34/0 بیشترین اولویت را داشته است. در معیار اجتماعی شبکه سراسری توزیع برق با وزن 26/0 دارای بالاترین اولویت بوده است و در معیار فنی نیز اولویت را شبکه سوخت با وزن 33/0 داشت. نتیجه‌گیری: ایران با وابستگی زیرساخت‌هایش به انرژی‌های فسیلی در گام نخست به برنامه‌ریزی برای توسعه پایدار در فرآیند‌های اکتشاف، استخراج، پالایش و شبکه حمل و نقل سوخت‌های فسیلی نیاز دارد. سپس شبکه برق کشور نیازمند تغییرات بنیادین در سیستم برق‌رسانی و همگرایی با تکنولوژی‌های پیشرفته می‌باشد. در گام سوم نیز با توجه به بحران آب، ایران نیازمند تزریق سرمایه و تکنولوژی‌های نوین به زیرساخت‌های خود است تا به راندمان بالاتری دست یابد.
Introduction: The importance of the global movement towards sustainable development has increased in the recent years, and it is necessary to redefine the concept of development in every country under a framework which responds to the current and future needs of that nation. Therefore, the aim of this research is to prioritize three strategic infrastructures of the national electricity distribution network, water supply network and fossil fuel distribution network within a specific practical framework. Materials and Methods: This research used the comprehensive multi-criteria decision-making method of the analytical hierarchy process which is based on the experiences gained in the design, implementation and operation of strategic infrastructures with a survey from 12 experts. Mentioned infrastructures have prioritized according to four economic, social, environmental and technical criteria along with 10 sub-criteria layers of investment and construction cost, maintenance cost, job creation, acceptance and public participation rate, water, soil and air pollution, final quality, technical efficiency and training of expert staff. Results and Discussion: The results showed that in examining the dimensions of sustainable development, the environmental criterion with a weight of 0.30 has the highest priority, followed by the technical criterion with a weight of 0.24. Social and economic criteria were ranked next with weights of 0.224 and 0.223 respectively. Also, the fuel distribution network with a weight of 0.026 had the highest importance in the sustainable development of infrastructure. The second priority was the nationwide electricity distribution network with a weight of 0.0252, and the third priority was the water supply network with a weight of 0.0251. Further, the weight of the alternatives for prioritizing the strategic target infrastructures based on the main criteria showed that the water supply network had the highest priority in economic and environmental criteria with weights of 0.27 and 0.34 respectively. In the social criterion, the nationwide electricity distribution network has the highest priority with a weight of 0.26, and in the technical criterion, the fuel network has the highest priority with a weight of 0.33. Conclusion: Iran with high dependency on fossil energy in its infrastructure demands planning for sustainable development in the processes of exploration, extraction, refining and transportation network of fossil fuels. Then the electricity network of the country requires fundamental changes in the electricity supply system and convergence with innovative technologies. In the third step, because of the water crisis, Iran needs to introduce novel technologies into its infrastructure to achieve higher efficiency.
Sharma R, Jabbour CJ, Lopes de Sousa Jabbour AB. Sustainable manufacturing and industry 4.0: what we know and what we don't. Journal of Enterprise Information Management. 2021 Jan 28;34(1):230-66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/JEIM-01-2020-0024
Shen S, Venaik S, Liesch P. A novel model linking UN SDGs with international experience and firm performance. International Business Review. 2023 Aug 3:102170. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ibusrev.2023.102170
Purvis B, Mao Y, Robinson D. Three pillars of sustainability: in search of conceptual origins. Sustainability science. 2019 May 7;14:681-95. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-018-0627-5
Londoño-Pineda A, Cano JA, Gómez-Montoya R. Application of AHP for the weighting of sustainable development indicators at the subnational level. Economies. 2021 Nov 4;9(4):169. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies9040169
Mazhari SM, Monsef H, Lesani H, Fereidunian A. A multi-objective PMU placement method considering measurement redundancy and observability value under contingencies. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems. 2013 Feb 1;28(3):2136-46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/TPWRS.2012.2234147
Taklif, A., Mohammadi, T., Bakhtiar, M. Development of Renewable Energy and it’s Role on the Future of Power Sector in Iran. Economic Growth and Development Research, 2016; 7(25): 147-161. https://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.22285954.1395.7.25.20.4
Shahpari A. R., KHANSARI M., MOEINI A.. Prediction of Vulnerability in Iran's Power Grid by Link Analysis. (JOURNAL OF ADVANCED DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY) JOURNAL OF PASSIVE DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY[Internet]. 2019;9(4 ):461-466. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/167319/en [In Persian] https://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.26762935.1397.9.4.8.9
SAYYDIPOUR S., GHAFFARPOUR R., RANJBAR A.M.. A REVIEW ON VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS OF ELECTRIC GRID: APPROACHES, MODELS, AND SOLUTION METHODS. (JOURNAL OF ADVANCED DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY) JOURNAL OF PASSIVE DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY[Internet]. 2018;9(1):11-28. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/167557/en [In Persian]
Akhlaghi M, Moravej Z, Bagheri A. Flexible and sustainable scheduling of electric power grids: A dynamic line and transformer rating based approach under uncertainty condition. Sustainable Energy, Grids and Networks. 2023 Dec 1;36:101150. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.segan.2023.101150
Østergaard PA, Duic N, Noorollahi Y, Mikulcic H, Kalogirou S. Sustainable development using renewable energy technology. Renewable energy. 2020 Feb 1;146:2430-7. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2019.08.094
Bovera F, Spiller M, Zatti M, Rancilio G, Merlo M. Development, validation, and testing of advanced mathematical models for the optimization of BESS operation. Sustainable Energy, Grids and Networks. 2023 Dec 1;36:101152. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.segan.2023.101152
Yilmaz B. A scenario framework for electricity grid using Generative Adversarial Networks. Sustainable Energy, Grids and Networks. 2023 Dec 1;36:101157. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.segan.2023.101157
Mohammadi K, Khorasanizadeh H. The potential and deployment viability of concentrated solar power (CSP) in Iran. Energy Strategy Reviews. 2019 Apr 1;24:358-69. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2019.04.008
Water crisis in the Middle East. Tehran, Iran: Islamic Council Research Center. 2020. [Internet]. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/796506/fa. [In Persian]
Tursunov Behruz Normurod o`g`li. Proper Use of Water in the Current Global Conditions. Web sci. scholars [Internet]. 2023 Oct. 11 [cited 2023 Oct. 16];1(7):16-20. Available from: https://webofjournals.com/index.php/12/article/view/202
Nova K. AI-Enabled Water Management Systems: An Analysis of System Components and Interdependencies for Water Conservation. ERST [Internet]. 2023 Jun. 9 [cited 2023 Oct. 16];7(1):105-24. Available from: https://studies.eigenpub.com/index.php/erst/article/view/12
Sabale R, Venkatesh B, Jose M. Sustainable water resource management through conjunctive use of groundwater and surface water: A review. Innovative Infrastructure Solutions. 2023 Jan;8(1):17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s41062-022-00992-9
Guo S, Zhang F, Engel BA, Wang Y, Guo P, Li Y. A distributed robust optimization model based on water-food-energy nexus for irrigated agricultural sustainable development. Journal of Hydrology. 2022 Mar 1;606:127394. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127394
Sadeghian, A, Sohba, M, "Investigating the environmental effects of refineries and presenting solutions to reduce the effects," presented at the International Oil, Gas, Petrochemical and Power Plant Conference. 2013, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/815031/fa [In Persian]
Mahmood Y, Afrin T, Huang Y, Yodo N. Sustainable Development for Oil and Gas Infrastructure from Risk, Reliability, and Resilience Perspectives. Sustainability. 2023 Mar 10;15(6):4953. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15064953
Cherepovitsyn A, Rutenko E, Solovyova V. Sustainable development of oil and gas resources: A system of environmental, socio-economic, and innovation indicators. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering. 2021 Nov 22;9(11):1307. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse9111307
Sreenivasan A, Suresh M, Nedungadi P. Mapping analytical hierarchy process research to sustainable development goals: Bibliometric and social network analysis. Heliyon. 2023 Aug 1;9(8). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e19077
Stofkova J, Krejnus M, Stofkova KR, Malega P, Binasova V. Use of the analytic hierarchy process and selected methods in the managerial decision-making process in the context of sustainable development. Sustainability. 2022 Sep 14;14(18):11546. https://doi.org/10.3390/su141811546
Saaty, T. L. The analytic hierarchy process: planning, priority setting, resource allocation. 1980.
Lee AH, Chen WC, Chang CJ. A fuzzy AHP and BSC approach for evaluating performance of IT department in the manufacturing industry in Taiwan. Expert systems with applications. 2008 Jan 1;34(1):96-107. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2006.08.022
Hosseinali F, Alesheikh AA. Weighting spatial information in GIS for copper mining exploration. American Journal of Applied Sciences. 2008;5(9):1187-98. https://doi.org/10.3844/ajassp.2008.1187.1198
Jalaliyoon N, Abu Bakar N, Taherdoost H. Accomplishment of critical success factor in organization; using analytic hierarchy process. International Journal of Academic Research in Management (IJARM). 2012 Nov 1;1(1).https://www.researchgate.net/publication/282653985_Accomplishment_of_Critical_Success_Factor_in_Organization_Using_Analytic_Hierarchy_Process
Khatami F, Goharian E. Beyond Profitable Shifts to Green Energies, towards Energy Sustainability. Sustainability. 2022 Apr 10;14(8):4506. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14084506
Taherdoost H. Decision making using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP); A step by step approach. International Journal of Economics and Management Systems. 2017;2. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3224206
Mehara, E, Madanlojoybari, S, Zare Zaidi, A. Examining the role of environmental protection in sustainable development. Network [Internet]. 2016;3(10 (consecutive 29)):85-95. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/521249/fa9 [In Persian]
Sabzehie MT, Kolivand S. The Social Problem of Water with Sustainable Development Perspective: A Sociological Analysis. Social Sciences. 2017 Aug 23;24(77):404-33. https://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.17351162.1396.24.77.9.2
Fani Mohammad Ali, Hadian Ibrahim, Samadi Ali Hossein. Evaluating the structure of Iran's economy with a sustainable development approach. Strategic Studies [Internet]. 2015;19(1 (series 71)):7-42. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/92736/fa [In Persian] https://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.17350727.1395.19.71.1.8
Mojarad AA, Atashbari V, Tantau A. Challenges for sustainable development strategies in oil and gas industries. InProceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence 2018 (Vol. 12, No. 1, pp. 626-638). https://doi.org/10.2478/picbe-2018-0056
Shiri E, Nejadirani F, Beikzad J, Rahimi G. Designing a Sustainable Development Model Based on the Role of Electricity Industry. IUESA 2022; 10 (39) :141-156 http://iueam.ir/article-1-1902-en.html
Flint RW. The sustainable development of water resources. Water resources update. 2004 Jan; 127:48-59.
Bigleri, H, Pakzad, A. A. Water, economy and development: the economic importance of the water sector and its role in sustainable development programs. 2014. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/870953/fa [In Persian]
Mazur A. Does increasing energy or electricity consumption improve quality of life in industrial nations?. Energy Policy. 2011 May 1;39(5):2568-72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.02.024
Ebrahimi, A. Presenting the economic criteria for improving productivity in the water industry. 2015. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/815692/fa.
Ram M, Aghahosseini A, Breyer C. Job creation during the global energy transition towards 100% renewable power system by 2050. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2020 Feb 1;151:119682. DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2019.06.008
Zheng X, Junfeng SH, Gang CA, Nengyu YA, Mingyue CU, Deli JI, He LI. Progress and prospects of oil and gas production engineering technology in China. Petroleum Exploration and Development. 2022 Jun 1;49(3):644-59. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1876-3804(22)60054-5