• صفحه اصلی
  • پیش‌‌بینی گستره کنونی و آینده گونه Bromus tomentellus Boiss تحت دو مدل هشدار اقلیمی (Rcp4.5 و Rcp8.5) در اکوسیستم‌‌های مرتعی استان اردبیل

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کد مقاله : JEST-2204-5666 (R1) بازدید : 120 صفحه: 1 - 16

10.30495/jest.2023.66908.5666

نوع مقاله: پژوهشی

پیش‌‌بینی گستره کنونی و آینده گونه Bromus tomentellus Boiss تحت دو مدل هشدار اقلیمی (Rcp4.5 و Rcp8.5) در اکوسیستم‌‌های مرتعی استان اردبیل

محورهای موضوعی : پهنه بندی گیاهی

جواد معتمدی 1 (دانشیار پژوهش، بخش تحقیقات مرتع، مؤسسه تحقیقات جنگلها و مراتع کشور، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران، ایران. *(مسوول مکاتبات))
مرتضی خداقلی 2 (دانشیار پژوهش، بخش تحقیقات مرتع، مؤسسه تحقیقات جنگلها و مراتع کشور، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران، ایران)
راضیه صبوحی 3 (کارشناس پژوهش، بخش تحقیقات آبخیزداری، مرکز تحقیقات کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی اصفهان، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، اصفهان، ایران.)
علیرضا افتخاری 4 (استادیار پژوهش، بخش تحقیقات مرتع، مؤسسه تحقیقات جنگلها و مراتع کشور، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران، ایران.)

تاریخ دریافت : 1401/01/26 تاریخ پذیرش : 1401/06/14 تاریخ انتشار : 1401/08/01

کلید واژه: مدل پراکنش گونه‌ای, سناریو اقلیمی, اکوسیستم‌‌های مرتعی, رگرسیون لجستیک,

چکیده مقاله :

زمینه و هدف: تغییرات اقلیمی در دو دهه اخیر، یک موضوع جدی بوده است و بسیاری از مطالعات، بر روی جنبه‌‌های مختلف آن متمرکز شده‌‌اند. بنابراین، ضرورت دارد که رویشگاه‌ ‌بالقوه گونه‌‌‌های ‌‌شاخص مرتعی، در حال ‌‌حاضر و سال‌‌های ‌‌آینده، تحت مدل‌‌های هشدار اقلیمی، مشخص گردد. از این‌‌رو، در پژوهش حاضر، با تهیه نقشه رخداد پیش‌‌بینی گستره کنونی و آینده گونه Bromus tomentellus، تحت دو مدل هشدار اقلیمی (سناریو Rcp4.5 و Rcp8.5)، جابجایی آن، در عرض‌‌های جغرافیایی، در سطح اکوسیستم‌‌های مرتعی استان اردبیل، مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. روش بررسی: برای این منظور، در فصل رویش 1399، از 19 متغیر زیست اقلیمی و سه متغیر‌‌ فیزیوگرافی و مدل رگرسیون لجستیک، برای تعیین کمیت تغییر اقلیم در سه دهه آینده (سال 2050) و بررسی دقیق اثرات آن بر تغییر گستره گونه B. tomentellus در حال حاضر و آینده، استفاده شد. نقشه‌‌های خروجی نیز با احتمال رخداد بین صفر تا یک، به چهار طبقه؛ رویشگاه نامناسب (25/0-0)، رویشگاه تقریبا مناسب (5/0-25/0)، رویشگاه با تناسب بالا (75/0- 5/0) و رویشگاه با تناسب خیلی ‌‌بالا (1-75/0)، گروه‌‌بندی ‌‌شد و با استناد به ضرایب متغیرها در روابط رگرسیونی، متغیرهای موثر برای گستره کنونی و آینده، معرفی گردید. یافته‌‌ها: میانگین دمای سالانه (BIO1)، دامنه دمای سالانه (BIO7) و میانگین دمای سردترین فصل (BIO11)، بیشترین اهمیت را برای تناسب رویشگاه دارند که مقادیر آنها، با سخت‌‌تر شدن شرایط اقلیمی، افزایش می‌‌یابد. میانگین دمای سالانه رویشگاه‌‌های مناسب، طی سه دهه آینده، 6/1 تا 1/2 درجه سانتی‌‌گراد، افزایش خواهد داشت. ارتفاع رویشگاه‌‌های مناسب نیز، 115 تا 190 متر، بیشتر خواهد شد. در نتیجه، سطح رویشگاه مناسب آن، در واکنش به تغییرات اقلیمی، کمتر می‌‌شود. همچنین تحت سناریوی‌‌های اقلیمی، 2/30 درصد از رویشگاه‌‌های مناسب خود را در سال 2050، از دست خواهد داد و رویشگاه‌‌های نامناسب فعلی نیز، 4/29 درصد افزایش خواهد یافت. بحث و نتیجه‌‌گیری: در مجموع؛ تغییر اقلیم و افزایش شاخصه‌‌های دمایی، باعث حرکت گونه B. tomentellus به سمت عرض‌‌های جغرافیایی بالاتر در امتداد گرادیان ارتفاعی، خواهد شد. از این‌‌رو، طی سه دهه آینده، خطر حذف آن از اکوسیستم‌‌های مرتعی استان اردبیل، وجود دارد.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Background and Objective: Climate change has been a serious issue in the last two decades and many studies have focused on its various aspects. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the potential habitat of rangeland index species, currently and in the coming years, under climate warning models. Therefore, in the present study, by preparing a prediction map of the current and future range of Bromus tomentellus species, under two climate warning models (Rcp4.5 and Rcp8.5 scenarios), its movement, in latitudes, at the level of rangeland ecosystems of Ardabil province was investigated. Material and Methodology: For this purpose, in the growing season of 2020, from 19 bioclimatic variables and three physiographic variables and a logistic regression model, to determine the quantity of climate change in the next three decades (2050) and to carefully examine its effects on the change in the range of B. tomentellus species now and in the future, used. The output maps are divided into four categories with the probability of occurrence between zero and one; unsuitable habitat (0-0.25), almost suitable habitat (0.25-0.5), habitat with high suitability (0.5-0.75) and habitat with very high suitability (0.75-1), it was grouped and based on the coefficients of the variables in the regression relationships, the effective variables for the current and future range were introduced. Findings: The average annual temperature (BIO1), the annual temperature range (BIO7) and the average temperature of the coldest season (BIO11) are the most important for the suitability of the habitat, and their values increase with the harsher climatic conditions. The average annual temperature of its suitable habitats will increase by 1.6 to 2.1 degrees Celsius in the next three decades. The height of its suitable habitats will increase from 115 to 190 meters. As a result, the level of its suitable habitat decreases in response to climate change. Also, under climate scenarios, 30.2% of suitable climate habitats will be lost in 2050, and current unsuitable habitats will increase by 29.4%. Discussion and Conclusion: In general; climate change and increase in temperature will cause B. tomentellus species to move to higher latitudes along the altitude gradient. Therefore, in the next three decades, there is a risk of removing it from the rangeland ecosystems of Ardabil province.

منابع و مأخذ:


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23.  Safaeei, Mojdeh, Tarkesh, Mostafa, Basiri, Mehdi, 2013. Preparation of response curves of yellow species (Astragalus verus) to the slope of environmental changes using None Parametric Multiplicative Regression method in Fereydunshahr area of Isfahan province. Journal of Plant and Ecology, Vol.36, pp.53-64. (In Persian)

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  8. Ilunga Nguy, K., Shebitz, D., 2019. Characterizing the spatial distribution of Eragrostis Curvula (Weeping Lovegrass) in New Jersey (United States of America) using logistic regression. Environments, Vpl.6, No.125, pp.1-14.
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35.  Anderson, R.P., 2013. A framework for using niche models to estimate impacts of climate change on species distributions. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, Vol.1297, pp.8-28.

 

 

 

_||_

  1. IPCC, 2001. Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, New York.
    2.
  2. IPCC, 2007. Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Agenda, Vol. 6, No. 333.
    3.
  3. Warren, R., Van Der Wal, J., Price, J., Welbergen, J.A., Atkinson, I., Ramirez-Villegas, J., 2013. Quantifying the benefit of early climate change mitigation in avoiding biodiversity loss. Nature Climate Change, Vol.3, No.7, pp. 678-682.
    4.
  4. Zwicke, M., Picon-Cochard, C., Morvan-Bertrand, A., Prud’homme, M.P., Volaire, F., 2015. What functional strategies drive drought survival and re-covery of perennial species from upland grassland?. Annals of Botany, Vol.116, pp.1001-1015.
    5.
  5. Habibi Nokhandan, Majid, Gholami Beriaghdar, Mohamad, Shaemi Barzoki, Akbar, 2010. Climate change and global warming. Climatological Research Institute Press, 136p. (In Persian)
    6.
  6. Jalili, Adel, 2021. The need to change the approach in managing the country's natural environments Part5 The need to change the approach in range management: Development of rangeland management plans using the ecosystem approach. Journal of Iran Nature, Vol.2, No.6, pp.3-3. (In Persian)
    7.
  7. Ferrarini, A., Rossi, G., Mondoni, A., Orsenigo, S., 2014. Prediction of climate warming impacts on plant species could be more complex than expected, evidence from a case study in the Himalaya. Ecological Complexity, Vol.20, pp.307-314.
    8.
  8. Krebs, C.J., 2009. Ecology: The experimental analysis of distribution & abundance. 6th Benjamin Cummings, San Francisco. 655p.
    9.
  9. Araujo, M.B., Guisan, A., 2006. Five (or so) challenges for species distribution modeling. Journal of Biogeography, Vol.33, pp.1677-88.
    10.
  10. Lawler, J.J., White, D., Neilson, R.P., Blaustein, A.R., 2006. Predicting climate-induced range shifts: model differences and model reliability. Global Change Biology, Vol.12, pp.1568-84.
    11.
  11. Iverson, L.R., Mckenzie, D., 2013. Tree-species range shifts in a changing climate: detecting, modeling, assisting. Landscape Ecology, Vol. 28, pp. 879-89.
    12.
  12. Collevatti, R.G., Nabout, J.C., Diniz-Filho, J.A.F., 2011. Range shift and loss of genetic diversity under climate change in Caryocar brasiliense, a Neotropical tree species. Tree Genetics & Genomes, Vol.7, pp.1237-47.
    13.
  13. Sangoony, H., Vahabi, M., Tarkesh, M., Soltani, S., 2016. Range shift of Bromus tomentellus Boiss as a reaction to climate change in Central Zagros, Iran. Applied ecology and environmental research, Vol.14, No.4, pp.85-100.
    14.
  14. Keith, D.A., Akçakaya, H.R., Thuiller, W., Midgley, G.F., Pearson, R.G., Phillips, S.J., Regan, H.M., Arajo, M.B., Rebelo, T.G., 2008. Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models. Biology Letters, Vol.4, pp.560-563.
    15.
  15. Thuiller, W., Lavorel, S., Arajo, M.B., Sykes, M.T., Prentice, I.C., 2005. Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the united States of America, Vol.102, pp.8245-8250.
    16.
  16. Bazrmanesh, Azadeh, Tarkesh, Mostafa, Bashari, Hossein, Poormanafi, Saeed, 2019. Effect of climate change on the ecological niches of the climate of Bromus tomentellus using Maxent in Isfahan province. Journal of Range and Watershed Mangement, Vol.71, No.4, pp.857-867. (In Persian)
    17.
  17. Khodagholi, Morteza, 2022. Final report of project "Investigating the effect of climate change on habitat of important range species base on climate prediction model in Iran, Farsn province. Publisher: Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, 112p.
    18.
  18. Motamedi, Javad, 2022. Final report of project "Investigating the effect of climate change on habitat of important range species base on climate prediction model in Iran, Ghazvin province. Publisher: Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, 56p.
    19.
  19. Teimoori Asl, Sara, Naghipoor, Ali Asghar, Ashrafzadeh, Mohammad Reza, Heydarian, Maryam, 2020. Predicting the impact of climate change on potential habitats of Stipa hohenackeriana Trin & Rupr in Central Zagros. Journal of Rangeland, Vol.14, No.3, pp. 526-538. (In Persian)
    20.
  20. Rechinger, K.H., 1963-1998. Flora iranica. Akademische Druck, Germany.
    21.
  21. Armaki, M.A., Hashemi, M., Azarnivand, H., 2013. Physiological and morphological responses of three Bromus species to drought stress at seedling stage and grown under germinator and greenhouse conditions. African Journal of Plant Science, Vol.7, pp.155-61.
    22.
  22. Yaghob Zadeh, Mostafa, Poor Reza Belandi, Mohsen, Khashei Syoki, Abas, Rezaei Moghadam, Javad, 2021. Uncertainty of the models of the fifth report on climate change in estimating temperature and precipitation. Journal of Natural Geography, 13, No.51, pp. 21-37.
    23.

23.  Safaeei, Mojdeh, Tarkesh, Mostafa, Basiri, Mehdi, 2013. Preparation of response curves of yellow species (Astragalus verus) to the slope of environmental changes using None Parametric Multiplicative Regression method in Fereydunshahr area of Isfahan province. Journal of Plant and Ecology, Vol.36, pp.53-64. (In Persian)

  1. Liu, C., Berry, P.M., Dawson, T.P., Pearson, R.G., 2005. Selecting thresholds of occurrence in the prediction of species distributions. Ecography, Vol.28, pp.385-393.
    2.
  2. Monserud, R.A., Leemans, R., 1992. Comparing global vegetation maps with the Kappa statistic. Ecological Modeling, Vol.62, pp.275-293.
    3.
  3. Tongli, W., Elizabeth, C., 2012. Projecting future distributions of ecosystem climate niches: Uncertainties and management applications. Forest Ecology and Management, Vol.279, pp.128-140.
    4.
  4. Taylor, M.A., Stephenson T.S., Anthony Chen, A., Stephenson, K.A., 2012. Climate change and the caribbean: Review and response. Caribbean Studies, Vol.40, No.2, pp.169-200.
    5.
  5. Thomas, L.E., Gerald., S., Rehfeldt, C., Celestino, F., 2010. Projection of suitable habitate for rare species under global warming scenario. American Journal of Botany, Vol.97, No.6, pp.970-987.
    6.
  6. Abolmaali, Mohammad Reza, Tarkesh Esfahani, Mostafa, Bashri, Hossein, 2017. Assessing impacts of climate change on endangered Kelossia odoratissima Mozaff species distribution using Generalized Additive Model. Journal of Natural Environment, Vol.70, No.2, pp.243-254. (In Persian)
    7.
  7. Qazi Moradi, Mahsa, Tarkash, Mostafa, Bashari, Hossein, Wahhabi, Mohammad Rreza, 2016. Determination of potential habitat of Coma species (Ferula ovina) using generalized incremental model (GAM) in Fereydunshahr area of Isfahan province. Journal of Rangeland and Watershed Management, Vol.69, No.3, pp.689-377. (In Persian)
    8.
  8. Ilunga Nguy, K., Shebitz, D., 2019. Characterizing the spatial distribution of Eragrostis Curvula (Weeping Lovegrass) in New Jersey (United States of America) using logistic regression. Environments, Vpl.6, No.125, pp.1-14.
    9.
  9. Saboohi, Razieh, Khodagholi, Morteza, 2013. Studying the acclimation of Bromus tomentellus in Isfahan province. Journal of Applied Ecology, Vol.2, No.4, pp.57-72. (In Persian)
    10.
  10. Thuiller, W., 2007. Biodiversity: climate change & the ecologist. Nature, Vol.448, No.7153, pp. 550-552.
    11.
  11. Archer, S.R., Predick, K.I., 2008. Climate change and ecosystems of the southwestern United States. Journal of Rangelands, Vol.30, pp.23-8.
    12.

35.  Anderson, R.P., 2013. A framework for using niche models to estimate impacts of climate change on species distributions. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, Vol.1297, pp.8-28.

 

 

 

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