مدیریت ریسک پروژه های خطوط انتقال آب )مطالعه موردی شرکت آب منطقه ای استان کردستان(
محورهای موضوعی : مدیریت صنعتیAzad Enayati 1 , Heirsh Soltanpanah 2 , Alireza Qari Quran 3
1 - Graduate Student in Engineering and Construction Management, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan Science and Research Branch
2 - Assistant Professor in Industrial Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Sanandaj Branch, Sanandaj, Iran.
3 - Assistant Professor in Civil Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan Science and Research Branch.
کلید واژه: risk management, مدیریت ریسک, Delay, تأخیر, مسیر های بحرانی, پروژه های لوله گذاری, راهکارهای مدیریتی, Critical path, Pipeline projects, Risks, management solutions,
چکیده مقاله :
تأخیر در واقع اختلاف بین زمان پیش بینی شده برای تکمیل پروژه و زمان واقعی تکمیل آن است. هدف از این تحقیق شناسایی عوامل مؤثر بر تأخیر در پروژه های خطوط انتقال آب و ارائه راهکار جهت مدیریت آن می باشد. برای این منظور در یک مطالعه موردی عوامل تأخیر پروژه های خطوط انتقال آب استان کردستان شناسایی و اولویت بندی شده و مهمترین آنها استخراج گردید. در این راستا با بررسی دیدگاه افرادی دخیل در پروژه علاوه بر دسته بندی و اولویت بندی عوامل، تحلیل روابط بین عوامل اصلی بوجود آورنده تأخیر و ارئه راهکارهایی جهت مدیریت و کاهش تأخیر انجام گردید. عوامل تأخیرات بر اساس متدولوژی شش مرحله ای شامل برنامه ریزی مدیریت ریسک، شناسایی ریسک، ارزیابی کیفی ریسک، تحلیل کمی ریسک، کنترل و نظارت ریسک، برنامه ریزی واکنش به ریسک و فرآیند تحلیلی سلسله مراتبی در پنج نهاده کارفرما، مشاور، پیمانکار، عوامل مستقل لوله گذاری و سایر عوامل خارجی اولویت بندی گردید. با توجه به نتایج حاصل از تجزیه و تحلیل داده ها، میزان تأثیر هر یک از ریسک های شناسایی شده بر اهداف پروژه (زمان، هزینه، کیفیت) محاسبه گردید. نتایج تحقیق نشان داد مهمترین ریسک های کلیدی تأثیر گذار بر اهداف اصلی پروژه شامل: ریسک های زمانی از جمله برنامه ریزی ضعیف پیمانکار جهت اجرای پروژه و ریسک های مالی از جمله افزایش تورم و ریسک های کیفیت ازجمله ریزش کانال حفاری شده و ریزش برداری مجدد آن می باشد. سپس با برگزاری جلساتی با حضور صاحب نظران و بررسی مطالعات انجام شده راهکارهای مدیریتی جهت پیشبرد اهداف و کاهش ریسک های منفی که بر تأخیر در پروژه های خطوط انتقال آب تأثیر دارند ارائه گردید.
Delay is defined as a different time between anticipated time and real time to complete the project. The aim of this study was to identify delay risk factors in water lines and offer an outline solution in the projects to reduce the delay time. For this purpose, a delayed case was studied in Kurdistan intubation in order to identify and prioritizing delayed projects criteria while they are identified and extracted. Delays factors are determined and prioritized in the six-step methodology and analytic hierarchy process based on five factors including employee, consultant, contractor, independent of tubing and other external factors. Analysing the data, the results helped to identify and measure the effects of each of the identified risks on project objectives (time, cost, quality). The results showed that the most important key risks affecting the project's main objectives are as follows: poor planning is done by the contractor of the project, the quality of financial risks, including inflation and risks, the loss of channels drilling and loss of redrilling.
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3- Dibaei A. (2006). Analysis of the causes of delay in the engineering section (E) Petrochemical EPC projects, Second International Conference on Project Management, Tehran, March 14-15.
4- Fallahnejad, M. (2013). Delay causes in Iran gas pipeline projects. International Journal of Project Management 31(1), 136-146.
5- Golabchi, M, & Faraji A. (2011). Strategic Project Management, Tehran: Tehran University Press.
6- Hanna et al. (2013). Construction Risk Identification and Allocation: Cooperative Approach. J. Constr. Eng. Management, 139(9), 1098–1107.
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8- Iranmanesh H. et al. (2010). Comparative analysis of methods for project delays construction method and timing windows for a real project, Proceedings of the First Conference on Thermal Power Plant Technology, Technical Faculty of Tehran University campus, 26-27 May.
9- Management and Planning, "Report to review and resolve the causes of the increased cost or expensive construction projects."
10- Marzouk, M.et al. (2008). Assessing Construction Engineering-Related Delays: Egyptian Perspective. J. Prof. Issues Eng. Educ. Practice, 134(3), 315–326.
11- Marzouk M, Rsas T. (2013). Analyzing delay causes in Egyptian construction projects, Structural Engineering Department, Journal of Advanced Research, Online publication Date: 1-Jan-2013.
12- Moradi, M. (2011). Evaluation of methods for analyzing delays in projects, the Sixth International Conference on Project Management.
13- Mvhl and Bayer. (2008). Pipeline Risk Management, Second Edition, Interpreters Nadaf AS, et al, 626 pages.
14- Osoli et al. (2011). Evaluation of methods for analyzing delays in projects, the Sixth International Conference on Project Management, Tehran.
15- Project Management Institute (PMI). (2004). Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, Translators principled H, et al, Tehran Publication NPC-285 page.
16- Pahlavani A., & Zarei, B. (2008). Develop a methodology for identifying a large hospital project delays and improve strategies: A Case Study of Construction Project petrochemical equipment, Second International Conference on Project Management, Tehran, 14 -15 March.
17- Shakeri, A., Ghorbani, A. (2004). Project management and contractor claims, causes of major development projects, Second International Conference on Project Management, Tehran, 14 -15 March.
18- Shvalb K. (2009). the project management approach to IT projects, Golabchi translation of the first volume, Tehran: Tehran universities.
19- Soltanpanah & et al. (2012). Analyzing the reasons for delay in petrochemical projects, project management, international conference, Tehran.
21- Zolfaghari M. (2007). Factors in delayed construction projects province.
_||_1- Assaf, S.A., Al-Khalil, M., Al-Hazmi, M. (1995). Causes of delay in large building construction projects. Journal of Management in Engineering, (ASCE), 11(2), 45-50.
2- Al khalil M, Al Ghafly M. (1999). Important causes of delay in public utility projects in Saudi Arabia. J Manage Econ, 647-55.
3- Dibaei A. (2006). Analysis of the causes of delay in the engineering section (E) Petrochemical EPC projects, Second International Conference on Project Management, Tehran, March 14-15.
4- Fallahnejad, M. (2013). Delay causes in Iran gas pipeline projects. International Journal of Project Management 31(1), 136-146.
5- Golabchi, M, & Faraji A. (2011). Strategic Project Management, Tehran: Tehran University Press.
6- Hanna et al. (2013). Construction Risk Identification and Allocation: Cooperative Approach. J. Constr. Eng. Management, 139(9), 1098–1107.
7- Haj Shir Mohammadi, A. (2008). Management and Project Control, Tehran: Tehran University Press.
8- Iranmanesh H. et al. (2010). Comparative analysis of methods for project delays construction method and timing windows for a real project, Proceedings of the First Conference on Thermal Power Plant Technology, Technical Faculty of Tehran University campus, 26-27 May.
9- Management and Planning, "Report to review and resolve the causes of the increased cost or expensive construction projects."
10- Marzouk, M.et al. (2008). Assessing Construction Engineering-Related Delays: Egyptian Perspective. J. Prof. Issues Eng. Educ. Practice, 134(3), 315–326.
11- Marzouk M, Rsas T. (2013). Analyzing delay causes in Egyptian construction projects, Structural Engineering Department, Journal of Advanced Research, Online publication Date: 1-Jan-2013.
12- Moradi, M. (2011). Evaluation of methods for analyzing delays in projects, the Sixth International Conference on Project Management.
13- Mvhl and Bayer. (2008). Pipeline Risk Management, Second Edition, Interpreters Nadaf AS, et al, 626 pages.
14- Osoli et al. (2011). Evaluation of methods for analyzing delays in projects, the Sixth International Conference on Project Management, Tehran.
15- Project Management Institute (PMI). (2004). Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, Translators principled H, et al, Tehran Publication NPC-285 page.
16- Pahlavani A., & Zarei, B. (2008). Develop a methodology for identifying a large hospital project delays and improve strategies: A Case Study of Construction Project petrochemical equipment, Second International Conference on Project Management, Tehran, 14 -15 March.
17- Shakeri, A., Ghorbani, A. (2004). Project management and contractor claims, causes of major development projects, Second International Conference on Project Management, Tehran, 14 -15 March.
18- Shvalb K. (2009). the project management approach to IT projects, Golabchi translation of the first volume, Tehran: Tehran universities.
19- Soltanpanah & et al. (2012). Analyzing the reasons for delay in petrochemical projects, project management, international conference, Tehran.
21- Zolfaghari M. (2007). Factors in delayed construction projects province.