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کد مقاله : IMJ-2005-1384 (R4) بازدید : 198 صفحه: 57 - 69

نوع مقاله: پژوهشی

توسعه مدلی پویا برای تحلیل و ارزیابی سناریوهای کسب و کارهای نوپا در ایران

محورهای موضوعی : مدیریت صنعتی

Farzad Haghighi-Rad 1 , Afshin Neshati 2

1 - Assistant Professor Information Technology Management, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
2 - Industrial Engineering (Ms) Industrial Management Institute

تاریخ دریافت : 1399/02/20 تاریخ پذیرش : 1399/09/05 تاریخ انتشار : 1399/10/27

کلید واژه: کسب و کارهای نوپا, پویایی سیستمها, جذابیت بازار, شبیه سازی,

چکیده مقاله :

استارت آپ ها یا همان کسب و کارهای نوپا، موتور محرک اقتصاد به شمار می روند و توسعه این کسب و کارها، تاثیر بسزایی در رشد و توسعه اقتصادی ایفا می‌کند. برای تبدیل یک استارت آپ به یک کسب و کار قدرتمند در فضای کسب و کار، یافتن سرمایه‌گذار گام حیاتی و مهمی است که می‌تواند باعث رشد و گسترش فعالیت شرکتهای استارت آپی شود. در این مسیر یکی از چالش‌های مهم بنیانگذاران کسب و کارهای نوپا، جلب نظر سرمایه‌گذاران برای مشارکت و سرمایه‌گذاری است. برای دستیابی به این مهم، با شناخت عوامل کلیدی موثر بر موفقیت کسب و کارهای نوپا که برگرفته از نتایج پژوهش‌های پیشین است و استفاده از مدل‌های شبیه‌سازی می‌توان سیاست‌ها و سناریوهای مختلف را پیش از اجرا در محیطی آزمایشگاهی آزمود. در پژوهش حاضر، مدل عمومی پویایی سیستم‌ها که توسط هوانگ و کانک (Xiaojun Huang, Martin Kunc, 2012) ارائه شده، به عنوان مدل پایه در نظر گرفته شده است. با تعریف متغیر جدیدی با عنوان جذابیت بازار، مدل مبنا توسعه داده شده و با استفاده از آن سناریوهای مختلفی که از سوی بنیانگذاران کسب و کارهای نوپا دنبال می‌شوند مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفته‌اند. نتایج شبیه‌سازی نشان‌دهنده آن است که افزایش جذابیت بازار منجر به افزایش مشتریان بالقوه و فرایند تبدیل آن به مشتریان بالفعل خواهد شد.

چکیده انگلیسی:

tartups are the engine of the economy and the development of these businesses has a major impact on economic growth. To transform a startup into a powerful business in the business environment, finding an investor is a vital step that can drive startup companies to grow and expand. In this way one of the major challenges of the founders of the emerging business is to attract investors to invest in supporting new ideas. To achieve this, by identifying the key factors affecting the success of emerging businesses based on the results of previous research, and using simulation models, different policies and scenarios can be made before implementing in an environment Laboratory test and scenario where the results of its implementation are justified in terms of investment. In this paper, the generic model of system dynamics presented by Huang and Konk (Xiaojun Huang, Martin Kunc, 2012) is intended as the base model. By defining a new variable, market attractiveness, the model is developed and various scenarios that are followed by the founders of startups have been evaluated. The simulation results indicate that increasing the attractiveness of the market will lead to an increase in potential customers and the process of converting it to actual customers

منابع و مأخذ:


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_||_

  1. Afsharpour, M., Asakere, S., Zarandi, S. (2010). The role of collective investment in financing startup entrepreneurs. Roshd-e-Fanavari, 43, 2-13
    2.
  2. Barlas, Y. (1996). Formal aspects of model validity and validation in system dynamics. System Dynamics Review,12(3), 183-210.
    3.
  3. Bartoszczuk, P. (2004). SD Model of Economic Growth with Environmental Aspects System Dynamics Congress Oxford. UK.
    4.
  4. Blank, S. (2013). Why the Lean Startup Changes Everything. Harvard Business Review, 91(5), 63-72.
    5.
  5. Bocken, N. (2015). Sustainable venture capital e catalyst for sustainable start-up success. Journal of Cleaner Production,108, 647-658.
    6.
  6. Doruk, O.T., Söylemezoğlu, E. (2014). The Constraints of Innovation in Developing Countries: Too many barriers to start ups? Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences,150, 944-949.
    7.
  7. Ekaterina S. Bjornali, A. E. (2014). Factors Affecting the Development of Clean-tech Start-Ups: A Literature Review. Energy Procedia,58, 43-50.
    8.
  8. Esmikhani, F., Haghighirad, F. (2016). Developing a Dynamic Model for Analyzing Administrative Corruption in Iran. Majlis & Rahbord,107-134.
    9.
  9. Forrester, J.(1958). Industrial Dynamics- A Major Breakthrough for Decision Makers.Harvard Business Review, 36(4) 37-66.
    10.
  10. Forrester, J. W. (2009). Some Basic Concepts in System Dynamics. From https://www.cc.gatech.edu/classes/AY2018/cs8803cc_spring/research_papers/Forrester-SystemDynamics.pdf
    11.
  11. Geum, Y., Lee, S., Park, Y. (2014). Combining technology roadmap and system dynamics simulation to support scenario-planning: A case of car-sharing servi. Computers & Industrial Engineering.71, 37-49.
    12.
  12. Haghighi‑Rad, F., Ghadimi, R. (2019). Evaluation of trade and production policy in Iranian SME (a system dynamics model). Journal of Industrial Engineering International, 69-86.
    13.
  13. Huang, X., Kunc, M. (2012). Modeling Start-ups using System Dynamics: Towards a generic model. The 30th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. Gallen, Switzerland.
    14.
  14. Hyytinen, A., Pajarinen, M., Rouvinen, P. (2015. Does innovativeness reduce startup survival rates?  Journal of Business Venturing, 30(4), 564-581.
    15.
  15. Love, J.H., Roper, S., Vahter, P. (2014). Dynamic complementarities in innovation strategies. Research Policy, 43(10), 1774-1784.
    16.
  16. Mohammadi Elyasi, GH., Chitsaz, E., Gerami, A. (2010). Internal factors affecting the performance of startups. Quarterly Journal of New Economy And Trade, 21-22, 27-48.
    17.
  17. Moroni, I., Arruda, A., Araujo, K. (2015). The design and technological innovation: how to understand the growth of startups companies in competitive business environment. Procedia Manufacturing. 3, 2199-2204.
    18.
  18. Nirwan, M.D., Dhewanto, W. (2015). Barriers in Implementing the Lean Startup Methodology in Indonesia – Case Study of B2B Startup. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences. 169, 23-30.
    19.
  19. Örnek, A.S., Danyal, Y. (2015). Increased Importance of Entrepreneurship from Entrepreneurship to Techno-Entrepreneurship (Startup): Provided Supports and Conveniences to Techno-Entrepreneurs in Turkey. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences,195, 1146-1155.
    20.
  20. Patel, N.(2015). 90% Of Startups Fail: Here's What You Need To Know About The 10%. Forbes. From https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilpatel/2015/01/16/90-of-startups-will-fail-heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-10/?sh=2cf118c26679.
    21.
  21. Qureshi, M. (2009). Human development, public expenditure and economic growth: a system dynamics approach. International Journal of Social Economics,36, 93-104.
    22.
  22. Rômulo de S. Fabrício, J. R. (2015). Strengthening of Open Innovation Model: using startups and technology parks. IFAC-PapersOnLine, 48(3), 14-20 .
    23.
  23. Sarabpour, S. (2015).The phenomenon of startups in Iran. Donya-e-eqtesad, 2 Feb 2015 from https://donya-e-eqtesad.com
    24.
  24. Sarabpour, S.(2016). How does government support startups? Donya-e-eqtesad, 20 Feb 2016 from https://donya-e-eqtesad.com.
    25.
  25. Savaneviciene, A., Venckuviene, V., Gridauskiene, L. (2015). Venture Capital a Catalyst for Start-Ups to Overcome the "Valley of Death": Lithuanian Case.  Procedia Economics and Finance, 26, 1052-1059 .
    26.
  26. Sterman, J. (1981). The Energy Transition and the Economy: A system Dynamics Approach. PhD thesis: Sloan School of Management .
    27.
  27. Ullah, M. (2012). Enhancing the Understanding of Corruption. PhD thesis, The University of Auckland.
    28.
  28. Zimmerer, T., Scarborough, N. (1996). Entrepreneurship Venture Formation. International Edition and the new: Prentice Hall.
    29.

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