تفکیک اثرات مقیاس و تکنیکی توسعه مالی و سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی بر مصرف انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر: شواهدی از کشورهای خاورمیانه
حسین الرکابی
1
(
دانشجوی دکترای علوم اقتصادی گرایش توسعه اقتصادی دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه تبریز، hussein.abdalhamza@iku.edu.iq
)
سید کمال صادقی
2
(
استاد اقتصاد، دانشگاه تبریز، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، گروه توسعه اقتصادی و برنامه‌ریزی، sadeghiseyedkamal@gmail.com
)
پرویز محمدزاده
3
(
استاد اقتصاد دانشگاه تبریز دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت گروه توسعه اقتصادی و برنامه‌ریزی، pmpmohamadzadeh@gmail.com
)
کلید واژه: انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر, توسعه مالی, FDI, کیفیت نهادی, مدل CS-ARDL.,
چکیده مقاله :
انرژی یکی از ارکان اصلی تولید و رشد اقتصادی است، اما وابستگی شدید به سوخت‌های فسیلی در کشورهای خاورمیانه، علی‌رغم پتانسیل بالای انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر، چالش‌های زیست‌محیطی و سلامت انسانی را تشدید کرده است. توسعه مالی و FDI می‌توانند از طریق اثر مقیاس و اثر تکنیکی بر مصرف انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر تأثیرگذار باشند. اثر مقیاس با افزایش تولید و تقاضای انرژی، اغلب موجب افزایش انتشار آلاینده‌ها می‌شود، در حالی که اثر تکنیکی از طریق انتقال فناوری و بهبود بهره‌وری، پایداری زیست‌محیطی را ارتقا می‌بخشد. به دلیل تضاد بالقوه بین این دو اثر و تفاوت در اثرگذاری آن‌ها در کشورهای مختلف، تفکیک این اثرات برای طراحی سیاست‌های اثربخش ضروری است.
این مطالعه با بهره‌گیری از مدل CS-ARDL و داده‌های پانل طی سال‌های 2000 تا 2021، اثرات توسعه مالی و FDI بر مصرف انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر در کشورهای منتخب خاورمیانه را تحلیل می‌کند. نتایج نشان می‌دهند که در مراحل اولیه توسعه مالی و FDI، تخصیص ناکارآمد منابع و انتقال صنایع آلاینده، مصرف انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر را کاهش می‌دهد. با این حال، در سطوح پیشرفته‌تر، هدایت منابع به سمت پروژه‌های پایدار و استفاده از فناوری‌های نوین، منجر به افزایش مصرف انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر می‌شود.
علاوه بر این، کیفیت نهادی و مصرف انرژی فسیلی اثر مثبتی بر مصرف انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر دارند، اما وابستگی به فناوری‌های سنتی تأثیری منفی برجای می‌گذارد. این تحقیق بر ضرورت تقویت زیرساخت‌های مالی، جذب هدفمند سرمایه‌گذاری خارجی، بهبود کیفیت حکمرانی و حذف تدریجی یارانه‌های انرژی فسیلی تأکید دارد. یافته‌های پژوهش مسیری روشن برای کاهش وابستگی به سوخت‌های فسیلی و گذار به انرژی‌های پایدار در کشورهای خاورمیانه ارائه می‌دهد.
چکیده انگلیسی :
This study investigates the impact of financial development and foreign direct investment (FDI) on renewable energy consumption in selected Middle Eastern countries using the CS-ARDL model and panel data spanning from 2000 to 2021. The findings reveal nonlinear and dual effects, namely scale and technical effects, of these factors. In the initial stages of financial development and FDI, renewable energy consumption decreases due to inefficient resource allocation and the transfer of polluting industries to host countries (scale effect). However, at higher levels of financial development and FDI, resources are directed toward sustainable projects, and technology transfer boosts renewable energy consumption (technical effect).
The negative and significant error correction term (ECM = -0.2) confirms the rapid convergence to long-term equilibrium. Furthermore, institutional quality and fossil fuel consumption exhibit positive and significant impacts on renewable energy consumption. While institutional quality facilitates the transition to cleaner energy, fossil fuel consumption increases domestic and international pressure to invest in renewable energy. On the other hand, the capital-to-labor ratio negatively affects renewable energy consumption, indicating reliance on traditional energy-intensive technologies.
This study emphasizes the need to strengthen financial systems, attract targeted foreign investment, and improve institutional quality. Policymakers are encouraged to phase out fossil fuel subsidies, develop financial and regulatory infrastructures for renewable energy, and invest in research and development (R&D) to expedite the transition to sustainable energy. The findings provide a clear pathway for developing countries, particularly in the Middle East, to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and advance towards sustainable development.
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